---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Telecoms
status: done
latency_ms: 218513
conversation_id: 35fa799e-6d68-4eb4-ad0e-868c6b963069
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 20:30:26Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Softbank Group. If so, why?

**CLSA on SoftBank Group (9984 JP) — Incrementally more POSITIVE on thesis/tone, despite formal target price being lowered twice YTD**

CLSA analyst Oliver Matthew has held a **High-Conviction Outperform (HC O-PF)** rating on SoftBank Group all year. On the headline numbers, the price target has actually been **cut twice** in 2025 (¥14,555 → ¥11,254 in mid-March; ¥11,254 → ¥10,749 on the 4Q result on 13 May) [13][10]. **But the directional narrative is unambiguously turning more bullish** — the TP cuts were driven by exogenous re-marks (stronger yen, Arm share-price pullback, SVF re-val), not by a deteriorating fundamental view [13]. Every note since April has pushed the AI/OpenAI optionality thesis harder, with the most recent (27 June 2025) report explicitly noting the shares have begun to "move back" as the market re-rates the OpenAI stake [1].

### Rating & Target Price Timeline (CLSA, 2025 YTD)

| Date | Note (CLSA, Oliver Matthew) | Rating | TP (¥) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan | All about OpenAI | HC O-PF | 14,555 | — |
| 03 Feb | OpenAI conversation | HC O-PF | 14,555 | — |
| 06 Feb | World within Arm's reach | HC O-PF | 14,555 | — |
| 12 Feb | AI rising, discount too wide (3Q) | HC O-PF | 14,555 | — |
| 25 Feb | A billion times smarter | HC O-PF | 14,555 | — |
| **17 Mar** | **Arm at centre of AI revolution** | HC O-PF | **11,254 (↓)** | Yen, Arm pullback, SVF reval [13] |
| 20 Mar | Ampere acquired for US$6.5bn | HC O-PF | 11,254 | — |
| 01 Apr | OpenAI is a go, AGI is the aim | HC O-PF | 11,254 | — |
| 08 May | Arm 4Q review | HC O-PF | 11,254 | — |
| **13 May** | **OpenAI era begins (4Q result)** | HC O-PF | **10,749 (↓)** | Marginal SOTP refresh [10] |
| 01 Jun | AI push (JF25 CFO keynote) | HC O-PF | 10,749 | "Massively discounted despite rising AI exposure" [9] |
| 04 Jun | AI vision (SVF call w/ Govil) | HC O-PF | 10,749 | — |
| 13 Jun | If OpenAI is worth US$1tn… | HC O-PF | 10,749 | Bull-case piece [5] |
| **27 Jun** | **A vision of ASI (AGM)** | HC O-PF | 10,749 | Shares "moving back"; "shares look very cheap" [1][4] |

### Why incrementally MORE POSITIVE (despite TP cuts)

The TP cuts have been **mechanical** (FX + Arm + SVF marks), not thesis-driven. CLSA has actually been ratcheting up the qualitative bullishness on multiple legs:

**1. OpenAI is becoming the centrepiece of the thesis**
- January/February notes treated the US$25bn OpenAI investment as a "possibility." By 1 April, CLSA confirmed SBG would commit up to **US$40bn** into OpenAI, and explicitly upgraded the framing: "this strategic move makes Gen-AI a core part of the valuation."
- The 13 May 4Q note widened the range: incremental investment could be **US$20–40bn**; SVF2 has already put US$10bn in (US$8.2bn in April–May alone) [12].
- The June 13 piece, "If OpenAI is worth US$1tn…", is the **most aggressive bull case** of the cycle. CLSA sketches the math: ChatGPT user base ~800m heading to 1.73bn by 2028 → 346m paid MAUs at US$20/month → US$83bn revenue → 12× sales = **US$1tn valuation** [6]. SBG's 12% stake would then be worth **US$120bn**, netting US$39–69bn to shareholders after minority interests and a 0–30% discount — **48–84% of the entire current market cap** [5].
- Crucially, the ¥10,749 TP **does not include OpenAI** (it embeds only US$1.5bn) — CLSA flagged this as a TP that "will rise as the investments are finalised" [5][4]. That is an explicit statement of upside bias to the target.

**2. AGM (24 June) re-rated the strategic story**
At the AGM, Masayoshi Son moved the long-term framing from AI/AGI to **Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)** with a 2030 platform ambition, and said **"OpenAI could become the world's most valuable company"** [1]. CLSA also extracted a previously-unsignalled chip strategy: "If Arm was the first half of developing chips, then the acquisition of **Graphcore and Ampere** is the second half" — SBG now has ~50% cloud market share via Arm, with "more news on this in the coming months" [2].

**3. Cristal Intelligence and robotics added as new optionality**
At the AGM, Son surprised CLSA with a **December 2025 start date for Cristal** (no clear timeline previously) and explicitly called out robotics as the next ASI beneficiary — "an explosion of robotics in our world" [3]. This expands the optionality stack beyond Arm + OpenAI.

**4. Discount-to-NAV thesis getting louder, not quieter**
- March: "57% discount to NAV… valuations very attractive" [14]
- June 13: discount still "over 50% — this looks excessive, 30% would appear to be more reasonable." CLSA argues the discount historically narrows pre-IPO of significant assets (Alibaba, Arm), and an OpenAI IPO would do the same [7].
- June 27: "The shares look very cheap. Our SOTP-based target price of ¥10,749 includes **Arm at a US$131bn market cap (versus the current US$167bn)** and does not include OpenAI" — i.e., the TP is conservatively struck on Arm and gives zero value to OpenAI [4]. The implicit message is that fair value is materially higher than the stated TP.

**5. Asymmetry is improving**
CLSA explicitly framed the downside in the June 13 note: even in a "OpenAI turns out to be a loser" scenario where the market discounts the US$30bn investment by 50%, the implied loss is **only ~15% of market cap** [8]. Against an upside of 48–84% of market cap in the bull case [5], that is a ~3-5x reward-to-risk skew the analyst is willing to underwrite.

**6. Underlying fundamentals are improving, not deteriorating**
4QFY3/25 (reported 13 May) was strong across the board: sales +11% YoY, PBT ¥434bn (vs consensus), Arm sales +38%, SVF swung to ¥177bn gain (from ¥58bn loss), and the investment business posted a ¥1.4tn gain [11]. The May 13 SOTP refresh that lowered TP by ~4.5% to ¥10,749 was therefore a marginal valuation tweak, not a thesis downgrade — CLSA kept the **High-Conviction** designation through it [10].

### Bottom line

**Incrementally MORE positive.** Rating has been pinned at **High-Conviction Outperform** through two TP cuts driven by FX/Arm marks (not thesis), and the qualitative narrative has been steadily upgraded — from "OpenAI is a possible scenario" (January) to "OpenAI could be the world's most valuable company and SBG is the proxy" (June 27). The ¥10,749 TP is structurally **conservatively struck** (Arm at US$131bn vs market US$167bn; zero value for OpenAI), and CLSA has explicitly flagged it will be raised as OpenAI is consolidated into valuation [4][5]. The upside skew (48–84% of mcap from a US$1tn OpenAI, vs 15% downside if OpenAI fails) [5][8] is the most asymmetric the analyst has expressed in the run.

---
**Sources**
[1] A vision of ASI — CLSA (27 Jun 2025) — 607962937LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] A vision of ASI — CLSA (27 Jun 2025) — 607962937LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] A vision of ASI — CLSA (27 Jun 2025) — 607962937LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] A vision of ASI — CLSA (27 Jun 2025) — 607962937LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] If OpenAI is worth US$1tn… — CLSA (13 Jun 2025) — 607961957LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] If OpenAI is worth US$1tn… — CLSA (13 Jun 2025) — 607961957LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] If OpenAI is worth US$1tn… — CLSA (13 Jun 2025) — 607961957LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] If OpenAI is worth US$1tn… — CLSA (13 Jun 2025) — 607961957LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] AI push — CLSA (01 Jun 2025) — 607960933LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] OpenAI era begins (4Q) — CLSA (13 May 2025) — 607959265LinqAlpha.PDF
[11] OpenAI era begins (4Q) — CLSA (13 May 2025) — 607959265LinqAlpha.PDF
[12] OpenAI era begins (4Q) — CLSA (13 May 2025) — 607959265LinqAlpha.PDF
[13] Arm at centre of AI revolution — CLSA (17 Mar 2025) — 607953226LinqAlpha.PDF
[14] Arm at centre of AI revolution — CLSA (17 Mar 2025) — 607953226LinqAlpha.PDF

