---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Healthcare
status: done
latency_ms: 252149
conversation_id: 114bb86e-cd58-45fc-b5be-10ab4c221123
citations: 12
created: 2026-05-31 20:46:53Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on CSL. If so, why?

## Bottom Line: CLSA is **incrementally MORE NEGATIVE** on CSL — they formally downgraded the rating in May 2025.

**Direction**: The single most important change is CLSA's **7-May-2025 downgrade from HC O-PF ("High Conviction Outperform") back to O-PF ("Outperform")**, with the price target left unchanged at **A$330** [1][2]. This pulled CSL out of CLSA's high-conviction bucket for the first time since the March-2025 upgrade and signals a step-back from peak bullishness, even as the headline rating remains positive.

The latest note (17-Jun-2025, "ANDEMBRY approval") added a positive *operational* data point but did NOT restore high-conviction status — rating stayed at **OUTPERFORM, PT A$330** (spot A$239.10, +38% upside) [8]. Coverage analyst: **Andrew Paine** (CLSA Sydney — `@clsa.com`, i.e. CLSA-parent, not CLST).

---

## Rating / Target-Price Trajectory (last ~12 months)

| Date | Note | Rating | TP (A$) | Net incremental tone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-Aug-2024 | Horizon in sight | O-PF | 337 | — |
| 2-Dec-2024 | "Old dog, new tricks?" (China rHA risk) | O-PF | 337 | Neutral — flagged China recombinant-albumin risk but kept forecasts and PT unchanged |
| **11-Feb-2025** | **"Shot through the heart" (1H25 result)** | **O-PF** | **330 ↓** | **Mildly negative**: PT cut on weaker Seqirus + FY25 NPATA cut 1.8% [10][11] |
| **17-Mar-2025** | (per rec-history table) | **HC O-PF ↑** | **330** | **Positive**: upgraded to high conviction [2] |
| **7-May-2025** | **"Thunderstruck"** | **O-PF ↓** | **330** | **Negative**: DOWNGRADED back to O-PF [1][2][3] |
| 17-Jun-2025 | "ANDEMBRY approval" | O-PF | 330 | Operationally positive but rating unchanged [8][9] |

Source: CLSA recommendation-history table in the 7-May-2025 note [2].

---

## Why CLSA Stepped Back (May-2025 downgrade rationale)

The downgrade is **not earnings-driven** — CLSA explicitly made **no changes to FY25/26/27 forecasts, valuation, or PT** at the time of the downgrade [1][7]. The cut is purely a **conviction / risk-weighting** move, anchored on two US-policy overhangs:

1. **US tariff risk on pharma** — CLSA cites "US tariff risk on the horizon" as a near-term overhang specific to CSL's US revenue base [3].
2. **Uncertain US regulatory framework under Dr Vinay Prasad (FDA CBER)** — CLSA reviewed ~4 hours of Prasad's videos and concludes the FDA may be:
   - **More stringent on approvals**, even outside biologics, with "less predictable outcomes" [4].
   - **Focused on waste / unnecessary treatment** — flagged specifically as a risk to **CIDP** (where some patients may not actually have the disease they're treated for), one of CSL Behring's key Ig indications [4].
   - **Pulling back on government vaccine awareness campaigns**, a risk to **Seqirus** flu uptake at a time when "vaccine fatigue still lingers" [3].

The downgrade language is explicit: *"…with US tariff risk on the horizon and an uncertain US regulatory framework, we downgrade our rating from HC O-PF to O-PF as the near-term outlook looks less clear until yield gains deliver earnings acceleration into c.2HFY26CL"* [3].

### Partial offsets (why it wasn't cut to HOLD)
- **Covid mRNA scrutiny is a *net positive* for Seqirus** — Prasad's hostility to Covid mRNA reduces the competitive threat from upcoming Covid+flu combo vaccines (e.g. Moderna) to CSL's protein-based flu franchise [5].
- **Medium-term thesis intact**: CLSA maintains conviction on **accelerating earnings growth from 2HFY26CL** driven by Rika plasma-yield gains [6], and explicitly says "would be highly supportive of the company announcing a buyback at its FY25 result" [6].
- **Valuation looks washed-out**: 1yr and 2yr forward PE-relative are both **>1 std below the 10-yr trailing average** (as of Mar-25) — CLSA views the de-rate as "overdone" [1].

---

## The June-17 ANDEMBRY Note — Positive Data Point, Not a Re-Rating

CLSA's most recent CSL-specific note (17-Jun-2025) on the FDA approval of **ANDEMBRY (Garadacimab)** for hereditary angioedema (HAE) was operationally positive but did **NOT** trigger a rating upgrade back to HC O-PF:

- CLSA now forecasts **+10.2% 5-yr CAGR** to FY29CL for CSL's HAE prophylaxis portfolio (ANDEMBRY + Haegarda) [9].
- Models a **+38bps Behring gross-margin benefit by FY29CL** from the new launch [9].
- But share gains expected via **new-patient growth, not switching from Takhzyro (Takeda)** — patients are "well treated by current offerings" — so the revenue ramp is gradual [9].

Rating stayed O-PF, PT A$330 [8]. This means the May downgrade overhang (US tariff / FDA-Prasad regulatory risk) is **still suppressing CLSA's conviction**, even after a clean approval.

---

## Earlier 2025 Context — The Feb-11 PT Cut

The Feb-11 "Shot through the heart" note already started the negative drift, even though the rating stayed O-PF:

- **Mixed 1HFY25**: NPATA missed by 4% — solid Behring (+10% revenue, GM 51.1% +118bps) and Vifor beat (+7%), but **Seqirus revenue fell 8% YoY** on vaccine fatigue and was -10% vs both CLSA and consensus [11][12].
- **Behring GM target of 57% pushed out to FY27/28** (vs prior FY26 hope) [12].
- **FX headwind**: US$90m to FY25 NPATA [12].
- **PT cut to A$330 from A$337** (2% cut); FY25 NPATA cut 1.8% [10].

So the sequencing is: **mildly negative Feb (-2% PT) → bullish Mar (HC upgrade) → negative May (HC downgrade) → neutral-positive Jun (ANDEMBRY)**. The net 6-month vector is incrementally negative because the High-Conviction tag has been pulled, and the headline risks (US tariffs, FDA-Prasad) remain unresolved as of the latest note (17-Jun-2025).

---

## Summary of Direction

| Dimension | Incremental change | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| **Rating** | HC O-PF (Mar-25) → O-PF (May-25) | **Negative** |
| **Price target** | A$337 → A$330 (Feb-25), unchanged since | Slight negative |
| **FY25/26/27 EPS forecasts** | Unchanged since Feb-25 [7] | Neutral |
| **Near-term thesis (12-month)** | More overhangs (US tariffs, FDA stringency, vaccine campaigns) [3] | **Negative** |
| **Medium-term thesis (Behring GM recovery from 2HFY26)** | Maintained [6] | Neutral |
| **HAE pipeline (ANDEMBRY)** | New +10.2% 5yr CAGR layer added [9] | Positive |
| **Net** | Conviction de-stepped, headline rating still positive | **Incrementally more negative** |

---

**Caveat on corpus recency**: This RMS workspace's latest CLSA note on CSL is dated **17-Jun-2025**; "latest" here is relative to that date, not today.

---

**Sources**
[1] CSL – O-PF (Thunderstruck) — CLSA, 7-May-2025 — 607958392LinqAlpha.PDF (PT A$330.00 unchanged, downgrade to O-PF from HC O-PF)
[2] CSL – O-PF (Thunderstruck) — CLSA, 7-May-2025 — 607958392LinqAlpha.PDF (recommendation history table)
[3] CSL – O-PF (Thunderstruck) — CLSA, 7-May-2025 — 607958392LinqAlpha.PDF (downgrade rationale: US tariff + FDA-Prasad framework)
[4] CSL – O-PF (Thunderstruck) — CLSA, 7-May-2025 — 607958392LinqAlpha.PDF (FDA approval stringency, CIDP risk)
[5] CSL – O-PF (Thunderstruck) — CLSA, 7-May-2025 — 607958392LinqAlpha.PDF (Covid mRNA scrutiny = positive for Seqirus)
[6] CSL – O-PF (Thunderstruck) — CLSA, 7-May-2025 — 607958392LinqAlpha.PDF ("Why not Hold? — medium-term conviction maintained")
[7] CSL – O-PF (Thunderstruck) — CLSA, 7-May-2025 — 607958392LinqAlpha.PDF (forecasts unchanged FY25/26/27)
[8] CSL – O-PF (ANDEMBRY approval) — CLSA, 17-Jun-2025 — 607962154LinqAlpha.PDF (CSL OUTPERFORM @ A$239.10)
[9] CSL – O-PF (ANDEMBRY approval) — CLSA, 17-Jun-2025 — 607962154LinqAlpha.PDF (+10.2% 5yr CAGR HAE portfolio, +38bps Behring GM benefit)
[10] CSL – O-PF (Shot through the heart) — CLSA, 11-Feb-2025 — 607950323LinqAlpha.PDF (PT to A$330 from A$337; FY25 NPATA cut 1.8%)
[11] CSL – O-PF (Shot through the heart) — CLSA, 11-Feb-2025 — 607950323LinqAlpha.PDF (mixed 1HFY25 — 4% NPATA miss, Seqirus drag)
[12] CSL – O-PF (Shot through the heart) — CLSA, 11-Feb-2025 — 607950323LinqAlpha.PDF (post-result takeaways: Behring GM target pushed to FY27/28)

## Citations

- [1] **607958392LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607958392LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607958392LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607958392LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607958392LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607958392LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607958392LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607958392LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607958392LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607958392LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607958392LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607958392LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607958392LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607958392LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607962154LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962154LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607962154LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962154LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [10] **607950323LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/02/607950323LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [11] **607950323LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/02/607950323LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [12] **607950323LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/02/607950323LinqAlpha.PDF>

