---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: 07 · Macro · sector brief
status: done
latency_ms: 1312731
conversation_id: e54d63f2-7736-464f-821f-b47427026705
citations: 3
created: 2026-05-31 17:38:20Z
---

# Summarise the China property stimulus package and the names most exposed.

# China Property Stimulus Package — Summary and Most-Exposed Names

**Bottom line.** CLSA's internal research frames China's property easing as a multi-phase, **centrally-led** campaign that began in May 2024 ("the most comprehensive easing since 2H21") [4][5], was extended via Tier-1 city demand-side measures in September 2024 [8][9], and — per public-market signals as of mid-May 2026 — is still being topped up, with the State Council, Politburo and multiple provinces (Hunan, Suzhou, Shanxi, Dalian) rolling out incremental support for housing inventory buyouts, home trade-ins and provident-fund borrowing [12]. The physical market has not yet bottomed — Jan-Apr 2026 new-home sales were still down 15.7% y/y and 70-city new-home prices fell 0.19% m/m in April [13][14] — but H-share developer flows have decisively turned. CR Land and COLI both hit 52-week highs in mid-May 2026 on +49.6% and +20% y/y April contracted sales prints [12].

---

## 1. The Stimulus Package — Three Phases

### Phase 1 — May 2024 "Most comprehensive easing" (centrally-led)

Per CLSA, this was instruction "from top senior government officials" and constituted the most comprehensive package since 2H21, with both supply- and demand-side tools used in tandem [4][5].

**Concrete policy actions (Apr-May 2024 timeline) [1]:**

| Date | Policy |
|---|---|
| 30-Apr | Politburo meeting: government assessing comprehensive measures to reduce housing inventory and boost sales |
| 16-May | Hangzhou's Lin'an district acquires 10,000 sqm of unsold residential for public rental housing (pilot template) |
| 17-May | Vice-Premier He Lifeng calls on cities to buy back residential land and unsold homes from distressed developers |
| 17-May | **Minimum down-payment lowered to 15% (first home) / 25% (second home)** |
| 17-May | **PBOC removes the floor on commercial mortgage rates for first and second homes nationwide** |
| 17-May | Provident-fund loan rates cut by 25bps (1st-home: 2.35% <5yr / 2.85% ≥5yr; 2nd-home floor: 2.775% / 3.325%) |
| 17-May | **PBOC Rmb300bn relending program** to help SOEs clear unsold inventory |

**The supply-side anchor — the Rmb300bn relending program** [2]:
- PBOC expects Rmb300bn quota to support **Rmb500bn in bank lending** for housing destocking
- Government prioritising **Tier-1 and Tier-2 inventory clearance** as a demonstration of commitment
- Other potential funding sources cited: **PBOC PSL (pledged supplementary lending), local government special bonds (LGSB), policy bank bonds and commercial bank loans** [2]

CLSA's framing: the inventory clearance program (supply side) is "highly implementable" while mortgage-floor removal and down-payment relaxation (demand side) "are likely to release more housing demand from first-time buyers and upgraders" [3].

### Phase 2 — September 2024 Tier-1 city easing (demand-side)

After the housing ministry meeting on 29-Sep-2024, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen immediately rolled out their own easing [9]:

- **Shanghai**: reduced social-security payment requirement from 3yr → 1yr for non-hukou buyers in outskirts; cut VAT exemption holding period from 5yr → 2yr; removed higher VAT standards on larger units.
- **Guangzhou**: **cancelled all home purchase restrictions** for both hukou and non-hukou households.
- **Shenzhen**: cut non-hukou social-security requirement from 3yr → 1yr in core areas; **no requirement in non-core areas**; scrapped re-sale restrictions; cut VAT exemption holding from 5yr → 2yr.
- **PBOC concurrently**: guidance to **lower existing mortgage rates by LPR–30bps to 3.55%** [9].

CLSA called the magnitude "below market expectations" but a "good and swift start" toward the central target of "preventing further declines and stabilising the property market", with the base case that the property market **bottoms in 2H25** [8]. Top pick: **CR Land** [8].

### Phase 3 — 2025-2026 incremental top-ups (still ongoing)

Public newsflow (mid-May 2026) confirms the stimulus campaign is still active [12]:
- **State Council meeting** (May 2026) reiterated pledge to tackle the property downturn and local government debt, echoing the **Politburo's April 2026 call** for further progress in stabilising the market and stepping up urban redevelopment.
- **Hunan** rolled out 10 new property support measures focused on buying up existing inventory, home trade-ins, and relaxing housing provident-fund rules.
- **Suzhou, Shanxi, Dalian** announced provident-fund borrowing relaxations.
- **Guangzhou SOE** launched a CNY3bn home trade-in program.

**The lagged fundamentals remain weak**, justifying continued stimulus: Jan-Apr 2026 new-home sales CNY2.007T (–15.7% y/y) [13], RE investment CNY2.397T (–13.7% y/y), 70-city new-home prices –0.19% m/m in April [14].

---

## 2. Names Most Exposed (per CLSA framework)

CLSA explicitly tiered the beneficiaries into three buckets [4]:

### Near-term beneficiaries — "Whitelisted" POE developers + LGFVs (under the inventory clearance program)

These names were re-rated by CLSA in the May 2024 note, all upgraded or held with substantially higher TPs [5]:

| Name | Ticker | CLSA Rating Action | Target Price (Old → New) | Upside at the time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **China Vanke (H)** | 2202 HK | O-PF → **BUY** | HK$6.10 → **HK$8.90** | +30.1% |
| **China Vanke (A)** | 000002 CH | O-PF → **BUY** | Rmb10.10 → **Rmb11.80** | +31.1% |
| **Longfor** | 960 HK | **BUY** (maintained) | HK$12.00 → **HK$19.30** | +26.1% |
| **Midea Real Estate** | 3990 HK | O-PF → **BUY** | HK$4.20 → **HK$6.85** | +24.5% |

CLSA's logic: Vanke (already the largest "whitelisted" POE) gains because central easing materially de-risks debt repayment and lets it monetise inventory; Longfor and Midea RE are robust-balance-sheet POEs that benefit asymmetrically from the demand response [5].

### Long-term winners — SOE developers with Tier-1/Tier-2 land-bank exposure

Because the Rmb300bn relending pot prioritises higher-tier city destocking [2], CLSA argues SOEs with the most Tier-1/Tier-2 exposure are the structural winners [7]:

| SOE Developer | Tier-1 | Tier-2 | Tier-3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Yuexiu Property** (123 HK) | 44% | 51% | 5% |
| **CR Land (CRL)** (1109 HK) | 16% | 57% | 27% |
| **COLI** (688 HK) | 20% | 80% | 0% |

CR Land remains CLSA's **top pick** through the Sept 2024 note [8] — and the latest tape supports it: CR Land's April 2026 gross contracted sales hit CNY25.88bn (+49.6% y/y) and the H-share hit a fresh 52-week high in mid-May 2026; COLI's April 2026 contracted property sales CNY24.19bn (+20% y/y), also at a 52-week high [12]. **UBS upgraded COLI to Buy from Neutral** in the week of May 12, 2026 [12].

### Second-derivative beneficiaries — Property management companies

Once the physical market stabilises, CLSA expects asset-light property managers to re-rate [6]:
- **CR MixC Lifestyle Services** (1209 HK)
- **Greentown Service** (2869 HK)
- **Poly Property Services** (6049 HK)

### Cross-sector beneficiary — Insurance/financials with property + investment-income leverage

CLSA flagged **Ping An (2318 HK / 601318 CH)** as an "early beneficiary" of property easing — the share price rose **~20%** in the weeks immediately after the September 2024 supporting policy announcements [10]. CLSA raised TPs from HK$48 → HK$58 (H) and Rmb50.20 → Rmb67.40 (A), maintaining Outperform on the dual exposure: (i) reduced impairment risk on Ping An's property-related investments; (ii) higher investment income from the stock-market rally [11].

---

## 3. Stimulus "Plumbing" — Funding the Inventory Buyout

CLSA estimates total funding needed to clear excess inventory back to a healthy 15-month cycle:
- Completed residential inventory: **391m sqm**; including PUD-to-be-completed: **1,993m sqm total**
- Months to clear at current run-rate: **26.5 months**
- Estimated inventory to be bought out (back to 15-month cycle): **864m sqm**
- At Rmb6,000/sqm assumed acquisition cost: **Rmb5,186bn total funding needed**; **Rmb1,556bn for Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities alone** [from the report's Figure 9 — chunk 30 in doc 607930084]

This frames the gap: the initial Rmb300bn / Rmb500bn-bank-lending pot is meaningful but only ~10% of estimated national need — explaining the ongoing top-ups (special bonds, LGSBs, PSL, provincial trade-in programs) seen through 2025-2026 [12].

---

## 4. Caveats / Vintage Note

- The CLSA notes cited here span **May 2024 (foundational easing) → Oct 2024 (Ping An early-beneficiary call)**. The CLSA archive does not include post-Oct 2024 updates in this workspace.
- Today is **31-May-2026**. The current incremental newsflow (Politburo April 2026, State Council and Hunan May 2026) is captured via StreetAccount [12]. Direction of travel is consistent with CLSA's 2H25-bottom thesis — H-share developers (CR Land, COLI) are re-rating on contracted-sales beats, but A-shares and weaker POEs (Sunac, Shimao, Sino-Ocean) remain in restructuring [12].
- Vanke specifically is still mid-restructuring: as of May 2026, it has restructured 5 onshore bonds YTD (CNY19.8bn principal), and Shenzhen Metro extended a fresh CNY2.5bn shareholder loan with collateral/LTV changes to the existing CNY22bn framework [12].

---

**Sources**

[1] China Property — The most comprehensive easing — CLSA (19 May 2024) — policy timeline table — 607930084LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] China Property — The most comprehensive easing — CLSA (19 May 2024) — Rmb300bn relending / Rmb500bn lending / PSL/LGSB funding — 607930084LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] China Property — The most comprehensive easing — CLSA (19 May 2024) — supply + demand stimulus framing — 607930084LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] China Property — The most comprehensive easing — CLSA (19 May 2024) — centrally-led; LGFV/whitelisted POE near-term / SOE long-term — 607930084LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] China Property — The most comprehensive easing — CLSA (19 May 2024) — Vanke H/A & Midea RE upgraded to BUY; TPs raised — 607930084LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] China Property — The most comprehensive easing — CLSA (19 May 2024) — CR MixC / Greentown Service / Poly read-through — 607930084LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] China Property — The most comprehensive easing — CLSA (19 May 2024) — Yuexiu/CRL/COLI tier-1/tier-2 exposure — 607930084LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] China Property — Incremental property policies — CLSA (29 Sep 2024) — base case 2H25 bottom; top pick CR Land — 607940402LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] China Property — Incremental property policies — CLSA (29 Sep 2024) — Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen Tier-1 easing + LPR–30bps to 3.55% — 607940402LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] Ping An — Early beneficiary — CLSA (15 Oct 2024) — share price +20% post supporting policy announcements — 607941268LinqAlpha.PDF
[11] Ping An — Early beneficiary — CLSA (15 Oct 2024) — TP HK$48→HK$58 / Rmb50.2→Rmb67.4; O-PF — 607941268LinqAlpha.PDF
[12] StreetAccount — China Real Estate Weekly Recap (15 May 2026) — State Council/Politburo property pledges, Hunan 10 new measures, CR Land/COLI 52-week highs, Vanke debt restructuring
[13] StreetAccount — China Jan-Apr 2026 new-home sales CNY2.007T (–15.7% y/y) (18 May 2026)
[14] StreetAccount — China 70-city new-home prices (0.19%) m/m in April (18 May 2026)

## Citations

- [12] **StreetAccount Sector Summary - China Real Estate Weekly Recap** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4678317&_doc_date=2026-05-15&_doc_product=SA>
- [13] **China Jan-Apr new-home sales CNY2.007T, (15.7%) y/y** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4684611&_doc_date=2026-05-18&_doc_product=SA>
- [14] **China new-home prices in 70 major cities (0.19%) m/m in April** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4684614&_doc_date=2026-05-18&_doc_product=SA>

