---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Consumer
status: done
latency_ms: 191377
conversation_id: 7b8d1849-c40b-4f82-aeda-832545c17cd2
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 19:21:19Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Kalbe Farma. If so, why?

**Yes — CLSA is incrementally MORE POSITIVE on Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ).**

CLSA's published rating has moved from **Underperform (U-PF) → Hold (HLD) → Outperform (O-PF)** over the past 13 months, and target price has risen from **Rp1,550 → Rp1,740** (+12%). The latest dedicated note ("Solid roadmap", 18 May 2025) is an explicit **upgrade**, with coverage simultaneously transferred from Jennifer Widjaja to Omar Abdulaziz [1][5].

### Rating / TP trajectory (CLSA only)

| Date | Note title | Rating | TP (Rp) | Coverage analyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr 2024 | Kalbe Farma — Soft recovery | **U-PF** | 1,550 (cut from 1,710) | Chelene Indriani [6] |
| 20 Jun 2024 | Transfer of coverage | (carried over) | 1,550 | Jennifer Widjaja |
| 28 Nov 2024 | Indo healthcare — Rising pulse | (HLD by then) | 1,550 (22x PE) | Jennifer Widjaja |
| 10 Apr 2025 | Indo healthcare — Navigating growth strategies | HLD | 1,550 | Sarina Lesmina / Omar Abdulaziz |
| **18 May 2025** | **Kalbe Farma — Solid roadmap** | **O-PF (upgrade)** | **1,740** | **Omar Abdulaziz** [1] |

The May 2025 note explicitly states: *"We raise our target price from Rp1,550 to Rp1,740… and upgrade our rating from Hold to Outperform"* [1], and again: *"We upgrade Kalbe Farma from HLD to O-PF on a better growth outlook and a solid margin"* [5].

### Why CLSA turned more positive — five drivers

**1. Prescription pharma momentum has re-accelerated.**
CLSA now sees prescription pharma (28% of revenue) growing **+10% YoY in 2025**, well above the 5-8% growth in other segments [3]. The Apr-2024 U-PF note had projected only ~6% overall revenue growth and cut 24-25CL net income forecasts by 7%/5% [7]. The new view explicitly cites *"better growth outlook especially from prescription pharma and distribution"* as the reason for the upgrade [2].

**2. Margin trajectory has flipped from "cautious" to "expansion."**
- **Apr-2024 U-PF view:** *"We remain cautious on full-year margin given continued downtrading and the weakening rupiah"* — flagged USD/IDR sensitivity with 80% of COGS in USD vs. 95% of sales in rupiah, where 1% IDR depreciation = ~2% EPS contraction [6][8].
- **May-2025 O-PF view:** *"Gross margin to expand +100bps to 39.8% in 2025, supported by improving gross margin from distribution and nutritionals due to lower raw material prices (skimmed milk)"* [4]. Skimmed milk prices dropped to ~US$2,600/MT in 1Q25 (vs. US$4,400/MT peak in 3Q22), and nutritionals gross margin moved to 55% in 1Q25.

**3. Specialty / higher-margin mix is building.**
Specialty contribution to pharma is rising from 11.0% (2023) → 12.5% (2024) → projected 14.5% (25CL) → 16.5% (27CL), supporting a structural Ebit margin re-rating story that the bear case lacked.

**4. FX risk now actively mitigated.**
Per CLSA's Apr-2025 sector note, Kalbe is **shifting raw material procurement from USD to RMB**, materially reducing the FX volatility that drove the original U-PF cautious stance.

**5. Other segments turning the corner.**
CLSA now expects consumer health +8% YoY 25CL (brand-loyalty / new-product driven), nutritionals +5% YoY (despite a contracting powdered milk market), and distribution +8% YoY (digital initiatives Emos / Mostrans, plus medical-device expansion) — yielding consolidated revenue +8% YoY in 25CL [5].

### Valuation mechanics
The multiple (22x PE, near -0.5SD below five-year mean) is **unchanged** between the U-PF and O-PF notes [6][2]. The entire ~Rp190 TP uplift therefore comes from **earnings revisions** — CLSA rolled the valuation base forward to 25-26CL average earnings, which now reflect the better margin/growth profile rather than the downgrades made in Apr-2024 [2][7].

### Bottom line
The directional shift is unambiguous and recent: CLSA went from cautious sell-side stance (U-PF, cutting estimates, FX-paranoid) in Apr-2024 to an explicit upgrade-to-Outperform in May-2025, driven by (i) prescription pharma re-acceleration, (ii) ~100bps gross-margin expansion from softer raw material costs and mix, (iii) rising specialty contribution, and (iv) FX risk dampened by the USD→RMB procurement shift. The TP move (+12%) is earnings-driven, not multiple-driven.

Note: the corpus's latest CLSA Kalbe touchpoint is 20 May 2025 ("Indonesian market — Awaiting animal spirit", where KLBF is still a main-ticker name), so the O-PF stance is the current published view in this archive.

---
**Sources**
[1] Kalbe Farma — O-PF (Solid roadmap) — CLSA (18 May 2025) — 607959722LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] Kalbe Farma — O-PF (Solid roadmap) — CLSA (18 May 2025) — 607959722LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] Kalbe Farma — O-PF (Solid roadmap) — CLSA (18 May 2025) — 607959722LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] Kalbe Farma — O-PF (Solid roadmap) — CLSA (18 May 2025) — 607959722LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] Kalbe Farma — O-PF (Solid roadmap) — CLSA (18 May 2025) — 607959722LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] Kalbe Farma — U-PF (Soft recovery) — CLSA (16 Apr 2024) — 607926804LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] Kalbe Farma — U-PF (Soft recovery) — CLSA (16 Apr 2024) — 607926804LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] Kalbe Farma — U-PF (Soft recovery) — CLSA (16 Apr 2024) — 607926804LinqAlpha.PDF

