---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Technology
status: done
latency_ms: 191790
conversation_id: 482c4fff-3d54-4f04-9dd7-63fa116fbe5e
citations: 12
created: 2026-05-31 21:20:47Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on SK Hynix. If so, why?

**Yes — CLSA has become incrementally MORE POSITIVE on SK Hynix through 1H25**, escalating its conviction in two visible steps: a March rating upgrade (O-PF → HC O-PF) and a June target-price hike from ₩290,000 to ₩350,000. The thesis hardened around HBM leadership, customer diversification beyond Nvidia, HBM4 ASP economics, and a lower-cyclicality re-rating narrative.

**Note on attribution**: CLSA's SK Hynix coverage is led out of Seoul by **Sanjeev Rana** (with Harry Kim) — this is CLSA-parent research, not CLST/Taiwan. The latest report sets price ₩286,000, target ₩350,000, +22.4% upside [12].

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## Timeline — the incremental tightening

| Date | Document | Rating | TP (₩) | Implied Upside | Incremental Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2025 | Korea Technology 2025 outlook | O-PF | — | — | Constructive starting point |
| 23 Jan 2025 | AI-powered growth (4Q24 result) | O-PF | 290,000 | — | TP raised from ₩260k to ₩290k; 2025/26 OP +3%/+20% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | Correction a good entry point | **Upgrade → HC O-PF** | 290,000 | +52% | **Rating upgrade; conviction step-up** [1] |
| 27 Mar 2025 | Well positioned | HC O-PF | 290,000 | — | Maintained; tight inventory (7.5 wks) supports thesis |
| 24 Apr 2025 | Sticking with HBM guidance (1Q25) | HC O-PF | 290,000 | +60% | Earnings +12%/+7%, but multiple cut to 1.7x (from 2.0x) for tariff overhang [4] |
| 13 May 2025 | Takeaways from virtual NDR | HC O-PF | 290,000 | — | Maintained; more cautious on capex tone |
| 19 Jun 2025 | Expecting another strong quarter | HC O-PF | 290,000 | +18% | 2Q OP raised to ₩9.0tn (from ₩8.6tn); HBM4 catalyst flagged [5][6] |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Korea memory (China fab restriction risk) | HC O-PF | 290,000 | — | View maintained; potential disruption seen as net-tight for DRAM |
| 25 Jun 2025 | Micron read-across | HC O-PF | **350,000** | +22.4% | **TP raised 21% to ₩350k**; roll-over to 2H26 valuation anchor [8] |

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## Why CLSA is more positive — the five reasons

### 1. HBM leadership has been validated, not eroded
The March upgrade explicitly cited *"confidence in HBM leadership and execution."* CLSA noted Hynix dominates HBM supply to Nvidia, the HBM market remains **undersupplied with rising backlogs**, and customers are **prioritising volume over price negotiations** — a dynamic CLSA argued is unlikely to change while global AI investment continues [1].

### 2. Customer diversification beyond Nvidia is materialising
The bull case has shifted from a single-customer Nvidia story to **ASIC-driven customer breadth**:
- In March, Hynix expected ~25% of 2025 HBM revenue from ASIC customers, with these customers rapidly switching from legacy HBM to high-end HBM3E 12-Hi [2].
- By June, CLSA noted *"interest from new HBM customers (mainly for ASIC), which might drive customer diversification and shipment upside in 2026"* [5].
- 70% of Hynix HBM supply is going to Nvidia, with the remainder going to new ASIC customers — this de-risks the concentration thesis [9].

### 3. HBM4 ASP economics are a 2026 catalyst CLSA wants to own ahead of
HBM4 mass production begins **Sep/Oct 2025**, with crossover in 2H26 [5]. CLSA models a **~30% ASP premium** for HBM4 over HBM3E 12-Hi, expected to drive blended ASP and profitability in 2026 [5]. CLSA also flagged Hynix's roadmap (HBM4 12-Hi in 4Q25, HBM4 16-Hi in 2H26, HBM4E on 1c nm thereafter), reinforcing the technology-lead-equals-ASP-premium argument [3].

### 4. Conventional DRAM tightness is now a positive byproduct, not a drag
Throughout 1H25, the supply story flipped: suppliers allocating wafer capacity to HBM is **tightening conventional DRAM**, supporting ASPs in 2H25 even amid demand worries [5]. The Apr beat showed 1Q OP +10% above consensus despite conventional DRAM ASPs down 10–15%, because HBM and DDR5 mix carried the print [4]. Hynix maintained guidance of **100% HBM shipment growth in 2025**; CLSA models 95% in 2025 and a further **40% in 2026** [11][10].

### 5. Valuation roll-over + re-rating thesis on lower cyclicality
The June 25 TP hike to ₩350,000 was not driven by earnings revisions — *"We make no changes to our earnings or valuation methodology"* — but by rolling the valuation anchor to **2H26 (from 1H26)** [9]. More importantly, CLSA articulated a re-rating thesis: HBM rising to **55%-60% of DRAM revenue by 2027-28** means **lower earnings cyclicality**, justifying a higher multiple [10]. This is the most bullish structural statement of the cycle.

---

## What CLSA explicitly does NOT see as derailing the call

- **US tariffs / 2H25 demand worries** — Hynix customers are maintaining procurement plans; some are even pulling shipments forward. Server demand impact seen as limited [4].
- **China-fab export controls (June 22 WSJ-driven scare)** — CLSA viewed potential disruption as **net-tightening for DRAM supply** in the short term; mid-term it accelerates Korean fab build-out. Maintained positive view.
- **Capex discipline** — May NDR flagged a more cautious 2025-26 capex stance, but CLSA framed this as supply-discipline supportive of ASPs, not as a growth-cut signal.
- **Tariff/macro overhang** — Was absorbed via a target multiple cut to 1.7x in April (from 2.0x), but the multiple compression was offset by earnings raises, leaving TP unchanged at ₩290k [4]. By June, the macro overhang had eased enough to justify the time-roll to 2H26 and the TP move to ₩350k.

---

## Calibration of the move

- **EPS estimates**: 2025CL EPS ₩37,557 (Mar) → ₩45,830 (Apr/Jun), a **+22% upward revision** over the period.
- **2Q25 OP forecast**: raised to ₩9.0tn from ₩8.6tn in June, +21% QoQ [6].
- **2026 outlook**: HBM customer mix expanding; HBM4 30% ASP premium; CLSA explicitly anchored a **"high probability of valuation multiple rerating"** [10].
- **Catalysts CLSA expects to play out**: HBM4 mass production launch (Sep/Oct 25), HBM4-HBM3E crossover (2H26), Korea sovereign AI ₩100tn spend program [7], 2026 ASIC contract finalisations (within 2H25).

**Bottom line**: From a starting Outperform call in early January, CLSA has tightened to High-Conviction Outperform (March), held conviction through tariff-driven correction (April), and finally pushed the TP up 21% in late June. The direction of revision — rating up, EPS up, TP up, cyclicality framing down — is **unambiguously more positive** through 1H25.

---
**Sources**
[1] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Correction a good entry point) — CLSA, 3 Mar 2025 — 607952105LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Correction a good entry point) — CLSA, 3 Mar 2025 — 607952105LinqAlpha.PDF (ASIC HBM section)
[3] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Correction a good entry point) — CLSA, 3 Mar 2025 — 607952105LinqAlpha.PDF (HBM4 roadmap)
[4] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Sticking with HBM guidance) — CLSA, 24 Apr 2025 — 607956758LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Expecting another strong quarter) — CLSA, 19 Jun 2025 — 607962387LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Expecting another strong quarter) — CLSA, 19 Jun 2025 — 607962387LinqAlpha.PDF (2Q preview)
[7] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Expecting another strong quarter) — CLSA, 19 Jun 2025 — 607962387LinqAlpha.PDF (Korea AI spending)
[8] Korea Memory sector outlook (Micron call read across) — CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — 607962817LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] Korea Memory sector outlook (Micron call read across) — CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — 607962817LinqAlpha.PDF (TP raise details)
[10] Korea Memory sector outlook (Micron call read across) — CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — 607962817LinqAlpha.PDF (rerating thesis)
[11] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Sticking with HBM guidance) — CLSA, 24 Apr 2025 — 607956758LinqAlpha.PDF (HBM 100% growth guidance)
[12] Korea Memory sector outlook (Micron call read across) — CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — 607962817LinqAlpha.PDF (focus stock summary)

## Citations

- [1] **607952105LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607952105LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607952105LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607952105LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607952105LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607952105LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607956758LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956758LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607962387LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962387LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607962387LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962387LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607962387LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962387LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607962817LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962817LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607962817LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962817LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [10] **607962817LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962817LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [11] **607956758LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956758LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [12] **607962817LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962817LinqAlpha.PDF>

