---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Healthcare
status: done
latency_ms: 193746
conversation_id: 46ceff69-efe3-47ee-80d9-36b3447d177b
citations: 9
created: 2026-05-31 21:26:26Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Samsung Biologics. If so, why?

**Yes — CLSA has become incrementally MORE positive on Samsung Biologics (207940 KS).** The decisive step-up came on **23 April 2025**, when lead analyst Harry Kim **upgraded the rating from Outperform (O-PF) to High-Conviction Outperform (HC O-PF)** and lifted the target price from **₩1,400,000 to ₩1,500,000** (a Street-high implying ~40-41% upside) [1][2][3]. That stance has been **reaffirmed twice** through end-May 2025 despite the surprise corporate-action news (the CDMO/biosimilar spin-off) [4][6].

## Rating & Target Price Trajectory

| Date | Note title | Rating | Target Price (KRW) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2024 | "Stay hungry, stay bullish" | O-PF | 1,400,000 (lifted from 1,150,000) | Plant 6 acceleration, client base top-20 → top-40 |
| 21 Nov 2024 | "It's different Samsung" | O-PF | 1,400,000 | Investor roadshow positive |
| 22 Jan 2025 | "Beat and beat" | O-PF | 1,400,000 (Street-high) | 4Q24 OP +13% beat; 2025 guidance 20-25% YoY (5% above consensus) |
| 02 Apr 2025 | "Going up, doors closing" | O-PF | 1,400,000 (Street-high) | Telegraphed +16% 1Q25 OP beat; "buying opportunity ahead of surprise" [8][9] |
| **23 Apr 2025** | **"What a beat"** | **HC O-PF (UPGRADE)** | **1,500,000 (raised)** | **1Q25 OP +40% above consensus → upgrade [1][2]** |
| 22 May 2025 | "Entering a new phase" | HC O-PF (maintained) | 1,500,000 (maintained) | CDMO/biosimilar split called "largely neutral near-term, positive long-term" [4][5] |
| 27 May 2025 | "Making the right decision" | HC O-PF (maintained) | 1,500,000 (maintained) | Concludes spin-off is right for minorities [6][7] |

The historical recommendation table inside the 23-Apr note explicitly maps the journey from U-PF (Apr 2022) → BUY/O-PF through 2023-24 → **"LATEST: HC O-PF ₩1,500,000"** [3], confirming the rating is at its most bullish level in the coverage history. (CLSA only introduced the HC O-PF rating tier on 16 December 2024 [3], so this is also the first time SBL has carried that highest conviction tag.)

## Why CLSA Turned Incrementally More Positive

**1. The 1Q25 earnings beat was a "track-record" reinforcement, not a one-off.**
CLSA had pre-positioned investors with a +16% OP beat call into the print [9]. The actual print came in at **+40% above consensus** — more than 2x what they had modelled — driven by (i) operational excellence, (ii) FX tailwinds, and (iii) one-offs from internal transactions [1]. That magnitude of beat, layered on a multi-quarter beat cadence, was enough to push Harry Kim from "high conviction OP" mentality to formally tagging it HC O-PF.

**2. Forward set-up still skewed positive — 2Q25 also expected above consensus.**
At the time of the upgrade, CLSA stated explicitly: "We believe its 2Q25 results will be above consensus as well" [1]. The 27-May follow-up reiterates this, citing "a potential 2Q25 OP beat, demonstrates the company's solid CDMO fundamentals" [6].

**3. Tariff overhang seen as priced in.**
A meaningful part of the upgrade rationale was that the pre-earnings share-price correction had "fairly discounted tariff concern" [1]. In the 2 Apr note (a week before tariff-driven volatility peaked), CLSA had already argued SBL would not be much impacted given its "prestigious position in the large-scale CMO industry" [9]. By 23 Apr, that view became the springboard for the upgrade.

**4. Valuation methodology rolled forward — supporting the higher TP.**
The ₩1.5m TP is anchored on **4.3x 2Q26CL maximum backlog of US$17.6bn** (vs. the prior ₩1.4m TP based on 4.3x 1Q26CL backlog of US$16.4bn) [2]. The multiple is unchanged — the uplift is from rolling the valuation anchor forward one quarter combined with an increased backlog forecast tied to Plant 4 and Plant 5 progress [2]. CLSA also flags Wuxi Bio's BioSecure-driven weakness as a structural opportunity for SBL to extend global leadership.

**5. The surprise CDMO/biosimilar spin-off (22 May) did NOT derail the bull case — and arguably reinforced it.**
SBL announced a horizontal split into (a) pure-play CDMO (surviving entity, Samsung Biologics) and (b) Samsung Epis Holdings (housing Samsung Bioepis). Initial reaction:
- **Short-term:** CLSA flagged the 0.65:0.35 split ratio as "slightly unfavourable" for SBL CDMO shareholders given SBL's superior earnings power vs. SBE — biosimilars facing tariff/pricing pressure (Celltrion read-across) [5].
- **Long-term:** Called it "the right decision" because it "completely removes the conflicts of interest" between CDMO and biosimilar businesses, unlocking further order momentum for SBL's CDMO franchise [5][7].
- **Action:** HC O-PF and ₩1.5m TP maintained — the corporate action was not seen as compromising the underlying thesis [4].

In the 27-May follow-up, Harry Kim went further: investors can "more freely choose their investment target," and the elimination of conflicts of interest "should let SBL gain more clients" — i.e., the split is actively a positive for CDMO order momentum [6][7].

## Bottom Line

CLSA's incremental positioning on Samsung Biologics shifted **decisively bullish on 23 April 2025**: rating upgraded one notch to its highest conviction level (HC O-PF, only available since December 2024), TP lifted +7% to a Street-high ₩1,500,000 (~+40% upside), driven by a massive 1Q25 OP beat, expectation of another above-consensus 2Q25 print, the view that tariff fears were already priced in, and a backlog-led valuation roll-forward. The May spin-off announcement — which could have been read as governance noise — was instead reframed as a structural positive (removes CDMO-biosimilar conflict of interest, enables clearer valuation, retains 2Q25 beat as catalyst). As of the latest CLSA note in scope (27 May 2025), SBL **remains Harry Kim's top pick in Korean healthcare with HC O-PF and ₩1,500,000 TP intact** [6].

---
**Sources**
[1] Samsung Biologics — HC O-PF (What a beat) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — 607956683LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] Samsung Biologics — HC O-PF (What a beat) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — 607956683LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] Samsung Biologics — HC O-PF (What a beat) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — historical ratings table — 607956683LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] Samsung Biologics — HC O-PF (Entering a new phase) — CLSA (22 May 2025) — 607960304LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] Samsung Biologics — HC O-PF (Entering a new phase) — CLSA (22 May 2025) — 607960304LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] Samsung Biologics — HC O-PF (Making the right decision) — CLSA (27 May 2025) — 607960664LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] Samsung Biologics — HC O-PF (Making the right decision) — CLSA (27 May 2025) — 607960664LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] Samsung Biologics — O-PF (Going up, doors closing) — CLSA (2 Apr 2025) — 607954835LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] Samsung Biologics — O-PF (Going up, doors closing) — CLSA (2 Apr 2025) — 607954835LinqAlpha.PDF

## Citations

- [1] **607956683LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956683LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607956683LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956683LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607956683LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956683LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607960304LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607960304LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607960304LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607960304LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607960664LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960664LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607960664LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960664LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607954835LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607954835LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607954835LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607954835LinqAlpha.PDF>

