---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Consumer
status: done
latency_ms: 198275
conversation_id: 39a4cb80-b1a6-43b4-a06f-21109d56fa83
citations: 17
created: 2026-05-31 21:44:25Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Kweichow Moutai. If so, why?

**CLSA is incrementally MORE NEGATIVE / CAUTIOUS on Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH).** The rating-and-target-price arc has been a steady de-rating since 1H24, and the most recent leg (since May–June 2025) is a clear near-term tone shift driven by China's tightened baijiu consumption policy. Lead analyst is **Elsie Sheng** (elsie.sheng@clsa.com, +852 2600 7794).

---

### 1. Rating & target-price trajectory — the long-arc de-rating

| Date | Rating | TP (Rmb) | Implied vs. peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2023 | BUY | 2,116 | — |
| 03 May 2023 | BUY | 2,134 | — |
| 14 Jul 2023 | BUY | 2,139 | — |
| 03 Aug 2023 | BUY | 2,299 | peak |
| 01 Jan 2024 | BUY | **2,326** | absolute peak |
| 27 Feb 2024 | BUY | 2,106 | -9% from peak |
| 01 May 2024 | BUY | 2,187 | — |
| 19 Jun 2024 | BUY | 1,818 | -22% from peak |
| 28 Jun 2024 | **O-PF (downgrade)** | 1,818 | rating cut |
| 26 Nov 2024 | O-PF | **1,718** | -26% from peak |
| 29 Apr 2025 | O-PF | 1,718 | held |
| 19 May 2025 | O-PF | 1,718 | held |

Source: CLSA recommendation history table dated 10 Jun 2025 [15], cross-checked against the 19-May shareholder-meeting note [8]. The peak BUY rating with TP Rmb 2,326 (Jan 2024) has been ratcheted down by **~26%** to TP Rmb 1,718, and the rating itself was downgraded from BUY to Outperform on 28 June 2024 [15]. CLSA has held O-PF / Rmb 1,718 since November 2024 — i.e., the formal call has stopped getting more negative, but it has not been upgraded back either.

Current standing: **O-PF, TP Rmb 1,718** (last marked at Rmb 1,486.11 on the 10-Jun expert-call note [10], and Rmb 1,578.98 on 19 May [6]).

---

### 2. The most recent incremental signal — turned more cautious in May–June 2025

**2a. Henan baijiu policy crackdown (10 Jun 2025 expert call — the key turn).** CLSA published an expert call with a Henan-province baijiu specialist with an explicitly cautious tone [9]:
- Baijiu sell-through declined **30% YoY in May in Henan**, "especially for high end premium brands" [9]
- Public servants and SOE employees have avoided "all banquets and gatherings with alcohol" since May under the strict policy [9]
- CLSA explicitly states: "We expect continued pressure in the next 1-2 months on baijiu wholesale price, baijiu demand and the stock performance of the sector, and we suggest **remaining cautious near term**" [10]
- Recovery "would need to wait until the policy execution starts to ease … whether the execution will ease after that is key to watch" [17]
- The Moutai wholesale price index already fell -0.6% in this tracking week [10]

**2b. Feitian Moutai wholesale price collapsed to distributor cost (27 Jun 2025 baijiu weekly).** This is the most concrete incremental negative datapoint:
- Feitian wholesale price dropped to **~Rmb 1,800/bottle** — and per CLSA's channel checks, Rmb 1,800 is "around the **weighted average cost for Moutai distributors**; thus, it is very important for Moutai to maintain its wholesale price at above this level" [13]
- Moutai hosted distributor meetings to stabilise the channel, but CLSA flags: "the key is the level of policy execution and when it can return to normal, **which we don't have clear visibility yet**" [13]

**2c. iMoutai e-commerce channel weakness.** YTD sales value through the iMoutai platform tracked by CLSA was **down ~83% YoY as of 25 June 2025** [14] (a portion is methodological — iMoutai stopped disclosing some products in Oct 2024 — but the trend is still indicative of weak direct-channel sell-through).

---

### 3. Modest constructive offsets (why the rating hasn't gone below O-PF)

- **1Q25 was a slight beat.** Sales +11% YoY / NP +12% YoY, "slightly above our and consensus expectations and also just ahead of its full year sales growth target of 9% YoY" [1]
- **Direct sales remain strong.** Direct sales +20% YoY in 1Q25, "mainly driven by non-iMoutai part, in line with the company's efforts to expand more 2C channels"; CLSA "believe[s] the company is on track to achieve its full year growth target" [2]
- **TP has 12-month potential of +9%** at the time of the 19-May note (Rmb 1,718 vs Rmb 1,578.98) [8]
- **Adjusted-for-prepayments growth was robust.** Customer advances -8% YoY but adjusted sales +19% YoY; cash inflow from selling products **+21% YoY** to Rmb 56.1bn [3]
- **Brand thesis intact.** "Moutai's high-end brand power remains strong and the impact from slowdown will not be that severe as anti-corruption period" (2013-16) [16]
- **Long-term demand still intact.** Even on the bearish 10-Jun expert note: "Although the long-term demand for baijiu is still intact, a recovery would need to wait until the policy execution starts to ease" [11]

---

### 4. Tone shift in the 19-May shareholder-meeting note

The 19 May "shareholder meeting takeaways" note is where the soft tone is most visible inside Moutai-specific coverage [5]:
- Management reiterated 9% YoY sales target for 2025, but budgeted **27% YoY growth in expenses** for advertisement/marketing investment — a clearly heavier spend posture [5]
- CLSA's verdict: "We think this is the right direction **but the transition will take some time**" [5] — language that explicitly slows down the recovery clock
- Chairman Zhang acknowledged the **stricter baijiu work-meal regulations** and noted "the baijiu sector is undergoing consumption scenario changes, for example the previous scenario of drinking a lot at hotels has become very rare" [5]
- Key risks repeated: "slower-than-expected consumption recovery, unfavourable government policies, delayed ex-factory price hikes and a weaker-than-expected release of sales volume" [7]

---

### 5. Synthesis — direction and magnitude

| Horizon | Direction vs. prior | Why |
|---|---|---|
| **12-month arc (Jan 2024 → now)** | **Negative** — rating cut BUY → O-PF; TP cut Rmb 2,326 → 1,718 (-26%) [15] | China consumption slowdown, ex-factory price visibility erosion, premium baijiu demand pressure |
| **3-month arc (Apr → Jun 2025)** | **Held formally, but tone turned more cautious** | 1Q25 was a beat [1] but Henan policy execution in May–Jun [9] and wholesale-price drop to distributor cost [13] introduced near-term downside risk |
| **Forward bias** | **Watchful** — "remaining cautious near term" [10]; visibility on policy normalisation is the key gating factor [13] | Mid-Autumn Festival outlook from expert is "not much turnaround"; Central Inspection Team departure (late Jun–Jul) is the catalyst to monitor [17] |

In one line: **CLSA has not formally downgraded again recently, but their underlying tone is incrementally more cautious — the wholesale price now sits at distributor breakeven cost, near-term policy headwinds are getting worse not better, and CLSA explicitly tells clients to "remain cautious near term."**

---

**Sources**

[1] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (1Q25 slight beat) — CLSA, Elsie Sheng (29 Apr 2025) — 607957506LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (1Q25 slight beat) — CLSA, Elsie Sheng (29 Apr 2025) — 607957506LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (1Q25 slight beat) — CLSA (29 Apr 2025) — 607957506LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (1Q25 slight beat) — CLSA (29 Apr 2025), Companies mentioned — 607957506LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (Shareholder meeting takeaways) — CLSA, Elsie Sheng (19 May 2025) — 607959909LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (Shareholder meeting takeaways) — CLSA (19 May 2025), Companies mentioned — 607959909LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (Shareholder meeting takeaways) — CLSA (19 May 2025), Investment risks — 607959909LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (Shareholder meeting takeaways) — CLSA (19 May 2025), Recommendation history — 607959909LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] China baijiu — Expert call on baijiu policy — CLSA, Elsie Sheng (10 Jun 2025) — 607961641LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] China baijiu — Expert call on baijiu policy — CLSA (10 Jun 2025), wholesale price table & "Our take" — 607961641LinqAlpha.PDF
[11] China baijiu — Expert call on baijiu policy — CLSA (10 Jun 2025), recovery outlook — 607961641LinqAlpha.PDF
[12] China baijiu — Expert call on baijiu policy — CLSA (10 Jun 2025), Companies mentioned — 607961641LinqAlpha.PDF
[13] China baijiu weekly (Baijiu weekly wrap) — CLSA (27 Jun 2025), Feitian wholesale Rmb1,800/bottle — 607962969LinqAlpha.PDF
[14] China baijiu weekly (Baijiu weekly wrap) — CLSA (27 Jun 2025), iMoutai sales tracking — 607962969LinqAlpha.PDF
[15] China baijiu — Expert call on baijiu policy — CLSA (10 Jun 2025), Moutai rec history table — 607961641LinqAlpha.PDF
[16] Kweichow Moutai — O-PF (1Q25 slight beat) — CLSA (29 Apr 2025), Valuation details — 607957506LinqAlpha.PDF
[17] China baijiu — Expert call on baijiu policy — CLSA (10 Jun 2025), Baijiu policy further tightening (17 May 2025) — 607961641LinqAlpha.PDF

## Citations

- [1] **607957506LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607957506LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607957506LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607957506LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607957506LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607957506LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607957506LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607957506LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607959909LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607959909LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607959909LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607959909LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607959909LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607959909LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607959909LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607959909LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607961641LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961641LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [10] **607961641LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961641LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [11] **607961641LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961641LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [12] **607961641LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961641LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [13] **607962969LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962969LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [14] **607962969LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962969LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [15] **607961641LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961641LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [16] **607957506LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607957506LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [17] **607961641LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961641LinqAlpha.PDF>

