---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Financial Services
status: done
latency_ms: 220499
conversation_id: befdcf94-2174-4ccd-af1c-5e9e237c1d9a
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 20:13:09Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on ICBC. If so, why?

# CLSA on ICBC — Incrementally More Positive on a *Relative* Basis, But TPs Have Been Trimmed

**Short answer:** CLSA is incrementally **more positive on ICBC in a relative/ranking sense** (consistently flagged as a top pick among China banks since late-2024 / early-2025), but **not on an absolute upside basis** — target prices have been *cut* over the last year and the latest TP (HK$5.20 / Rmb6.70) now sits *below* current spot (HK$5.90 / Rmb7.09), implying CLSA has not chased the rally. The latest 6-Jun-2025 "Transfer of coverage" note simply hands the book over to analyst Ding Luo with ratings/TPs **unchanged** — no new rating action, just an administrative move.

---

## Latest CLSA stance (6 June 2025 – Transfer of coverage)

ICBC's last-published ratings & TPs (carried over to Ding Luo) [1][2]:

| Ticker | Rating | Current price | Target price | Implied upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICBC – A (601398 CH) | **O-PF** | Rmb7.09 | Rmb6.70 | **−5.5%** |
| ICBC – H (1398 HK) | **O-PF** | HK$5.90 | HK$5.20 | **−11.9%** |

The note explicitly states: *"Our current ratings and target prices are shown in the table below"* — i.e. the transfer carries forward existing views without a re-rating [2]. The fact that **current prices are above both TPs** is the single clearest signal that CLSA is **NOT incrementally more positive in absolute terms at June 2025** — the stock has run past their fair value.

---

## Direction of travel — Target Price evolution (H-share, 1398 HK) [9]

| Date | Rating | TP (HK$) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2022 | BUY | 8.00 | — |
| 04 Apr 2022 | BUY | 8.20 | + |
| 08 Sep 2022 | BUY | 6.20 | − |
| 03 Jan 2023 | BUY | 6.70 | + |
| 01 May 2023 | BUY | 6.80 | + |
| 29 Jan 2024 | BUY | 5.60 | − |
| 08 May 2024 | BUY | 5.90 | + |
| 28 Jun 2024 | O-PF* | 5.90 | flat (system change*) |
| 25 Nov 2024 | O-PF | 6.20 | + |
| Jan 2025 (Outlook) | O-PF | 5.20 | **−** |
| 6 Jun 2025 | O-PF | 5.20 | flat |

*28-Jun-2024 was a CLSA-wide rating-system change (BUY → O-PF / HLD / U-PF), not a stock-specific downgrade [9].

→ TP trajectory has been **down** over the last six months (Rmb 6.20 → 5.20), against a sharp share-price rally that has driven the stock above CLSA's TP. CLSA has NOT chased that move higher.

---

## Where CLSA *has* been incrementally more positive — and why

Even though the TP has come *down*, CLSA's **relative conviction** on ICBC vs. peers has *increased* through 2025. Three explicit reasons:

### 1. Named as **top pick** in China banks (January 2025) [5][6][11]
- 23-Jan-2025 ("Get the money in"): *"Our top picks in China banks are ICBC and CCB"* — singled out ICBC ahead of peers in the context of insurer/mutual-fund flow targets that should favor high-yield bank stocks [6]. ICBC then traded at HK$4.98 with an O-PF rating [7].
- 12-Jan-2025 ("2025 Outlook: Redux+"): *"Due to these considerations, we recommend ICBC (H) and CCB (H), as well as CMB (A), Bank of Jiangsu and Bank of Chengdu"* — ICBC was first-named, indicating lead conviction [11].

### 2. High dividend yield as a **safe-haven** play into Trump 2.0
In the 2025 Outlook, ICBC's H-share dividend yield was flagged among the highest in coverage at **6.8–7.3%** [10][12], making it CLSA's preferred defensive vehicle for "external uncertainties" and a beneficiary of long-term capital injections from state insurers (target 30% of new premium into A-shares ≈ Rmb135–150bn p.a.) [6].

### 3. Long-term capital position **strengthening** via recapitalisation
30-Mar-2025 ("Recapitalisation plans unveiled"): While ICBC was **not** in the first batch (CCB, BOC, BoCom, PSBC got Rmb520bn from the MoF), CLSA explicitly states *"having more capital is a long-term positive for state banks"* and notes *"ABC and ICBC [are left] to the second batch in 2026, which we estimate at another Rmb500bn"* [3][4]. This is incrementally positive for ICBC's long-term capital strength, with **delayed dilution** (vs. peers diluted now) — a relative tailwind for ICBC vs. CCB/BOC/BoCom in 2025.

### 4. Strong "smart money" demand signal — Ping An Group
6-Jan-2025 ("Insurer accumulations") flagged that Ping An Asset Management's ICBC (H) position rose to **17.11% on 31-Dec-2024**, with Ping An Life at 15.00% and Ping An Group at 15.11% — three separate accumulations through Dec-2024 [8][13]. CLSA explicitly framed this Ping An accumulation as one of the four reasons banks should keep outperforming, and used it to underpin a *"safe haven"* thesis [8].

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## Synthesis — How to interpret the mixed signals

The question of "more positive or negative" splits into two answers depending on the axis:

| Axis | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| **Rating** | Stable at O-PF since Jun-2024 | Unchanged through 6 turnover events incl. Jan 2025 outlook, Mar 2025 recap note, Jun 2025 coverage transfer [1][9] |
| **Relative conviction (ranking)** | **More positive** | Named top pick in Jan 2025; first-named recommendation in 2025 Outlook [5][6][11] |
| **Thesis quality (drivers)** | **More positive** | Ping An accumulation [8]; capital-injection delayed dilution vs. peers [3]; safe-haven income play [12]; long-term capital strengthening [4] |
| **Absolute TP / implied upside** | **Less positive** | H-share TP cut from HK$6.20 (Nov-24) → HK$5.20 (Jan/Jun 25), now ~12% **below** spot [1][9][10] |

**Net takeaway:** CLSA *was* incrementally more positive on ICBC heading into 2025 (top-pick designation + defensive thesis + Ping An tailwind), but the team has *not* re-rated the stock upward to match the rally. As of the June-2025 hand-off to Ding Luo, the H-share trades above CLSA's TP, meaning the current effective stance is best read as **"still constructive on thesis, but valuation has caught up"** — i.e. a tactical neutral-to-take-some-profit stance under a maintained O-PF label, with new analyst Ding Luo yet to publish a fresh initiation.

What to watch next: Ding Luo's first standalone note on ICBC — that will reveal whether the new analyst maintains the inherited O-PF/HK$5.20 stance (implying take-profit at current levels), raises TPs to chase the rally (renewed bull case), or moves to HLD (formal de-rating).

---

**Sources**
[1] China banks (Transfer of coverage) — CLSA (6 Jun 2025) — 607961079LinqAlpha.PDF — coverage transfer table with current ratings/TPs
[2] China banks (Transfer of coverage) — CLSA (6 Jun 2025) — 607961079LinqAlpha.PDF — administrative transfer language
[3] China banks sector (Recapitalisation plans unveiled) — CLSA (30 Mar 2025) — 607954420LinqAlpha.PDF — ICBC in second batch (2026)
[4] China banks sector (Recapitalisation plans unveiled) — CLSA (30 Mar 2025) — 607954420LinqAlpha.PDF — long-term capital positive
[5] China financials (Get the money in) — CLSA (23 Jan 2025) — 607948869LinqAlpha.PDF — ICBC top pick
[6] China financials (Get the money in) — CLSA (23 Jan 2025) — 607948869LinqAlpha.PDF — flows benefit high-yield banks, top picks ICBC + CCB
[7] China financials (Get the money in) — CLSA (23 Jan 2025) — 607948869LinqAlpha.PDF — ICBC HK$4.98 O-PF
[8] China banks sector (Insurer accumulations) — CLSA (6 Jan 2025) — 607947609LinqAlpha.PDF — Ping An stake build-up
[9] China banks sector (Insurer accumulations) — CLSA (6 Jan 2025) — 607947609LinqAlpha.PDF — ICBC TP/rating history table
[10] China financials (2025 Outlook: Redux+) — CLSA (12 Jan 2025) — 607947966LinqAlpha.PDF — recommendation table TP HK$5.20, 7% upside, 7.3% div yield
[11] China financials (2025 Outlook: Redux+) — CLSA (12 Jan 2025) — 607947966LinqAlpha.PDF — "recommend ICBC (H) and CCB (H)"
[12] China financials (2025 Outlook: Redux+) — CLSA (12 Jan 2025) — 607947966LinqAlpha.PDF — dividend yield commentary
[13] China banks sector (Insurer accumulations) — CLSA (6 Jan 2025) — 607947609LinqAlpha.PDF — Ping An entities accumulation table

*Note on freshness:* CLSA syncs in this workspace run through 6-Jun-2025; if you need a post-June 2025 view (incl. any initiation by Ding Luo or 1H25 results note), it may not yet be indexed.

