---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Energy
status: done
latency_ms: 250018
conversation_id: c431289d-70c3-455a-952c-269efe3afded
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 18:09:17Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on CATL. If so, why?

**Yes — CLSA has turned incrementally more positive on CATL through April–June 2025**, with two clear up-steps: an upgrade to High-Conviction Outperform on 20 May (post-HK listing) and a fresh CATL-H target-price raise on 10 June. The progression is summarised below; note the CLSA RMS sync is anchored to a corpus that ends 10 June 2025, so "latest" below means latest in scope.

## Rating & target-price trajectory (CLSA, lead analyst Forest Chan / Samantha Chin)

| Date | Title | Rating | TP CATL-A (Rmb) | TP CATL-H (HK$) | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 2025 | CATL — Leading the pack | O-PF (reiterate) | 320 → **335** | n/a | TP raised on Tech Day product launch [1][2] |
| 20 May 2025 | CATL — A new era | **HC O-PF (upgrade)** | 335 → **380** | initiate **385** | Rating upgrade + H-share coverage initiation [3] |
| 25 May 2025 | CATL — A new normal? | HC O-PF (reiterate, both A & H) | 380 (unchanged) | 385 (unchanged) | Thesis reaffirmed despite 23% post-IPO H-share rally [7][8] |
| 10 Jun 2025 | CATL — Green shoots | HC O-PF (reiterate, both A & H) | 380 (unchanged) | 385 → **447** | H-share TP raised on premium-EV thesis + sustained H-A premium [9][11] |

Net move from start to end of the visible window: CATL-A target +13.4% (Rmb335 → Rmb380), CATL-H target initiated at HK$385 and lifted +16.1% to HK$447 within three weeks, and the rating was stepped up one notch to High-Conviction Outperform — CLSA's strongest "buy" designation. As of the 10-Jun note, implied upside was **+56% on CATL-A and +48% on CATL-H** to CLSA's targets.

## Why CLSA got more positive — four drivers

**1. Battery technology leadership re-rated (April catalyst)**
CATL's 21 April Tech Day launched the Naxtra sodium-ion battery (175 Wh/kg, ~500 km range, targeted for commercial production by end-2025) and the second-generation Shenxing LFP battery (12C peak charge, 520 km range from a 5-minute charge, 800 km at full charge). CLSA called both "a breakthrough in battery technology" that "solidifies its leading position in the EV battery space globally" and lifted the power-battery EV/Ebitda multiple from 12x to 13x to reflect the development [1][2].

**2. HK listing removed the overhang and refilled the warchest (May upgrade trigger)**
The successful HK IPO (US$4.6bn raised via 136m new H-shares at HK$263) cleared "mega-size IPO and tariff noises" that CLSA argued had been overshadowing CATL's intrinsic value. The cash also funds European capex and solid-state battery R&D, with US$45bn now sitting on the balance sheet [3][4]. This was the explicit catalyst for the move from O-PF to HC O-PF.

**3. US tariff impact "smaller than feared"**
CLSA flagged that ~40% of CATL's ESS batteries are exported to the US, but argued the company's "dominant market position and pricing power" let it pass through much of the burden. Management's own guidance: tariff drag contained to "low-single-digit" earnings impact [6]. This re-rated the risk side of the ledger.

**4. Margin expansion story reactivated + premium-EV positioning (mid-May to June)**
The new product line is positioned by CLSA as the catalyst to "revive [CATL's] margin expansion story" in coming quarters [5]. Then, in the 10 June "Green shoots" note, CLSA recast CATL inside CLSA's China auto team's bearish read of the broader EV market (China EV sales expected to slow to a 10% CAGR through 2030 with intensifying price war [13]) — but argued CATL is **insulated** because it commands a **72% market share in China's high-end (>Rmb300k) passenger EV segment**, which yields better ASP and higher margins than the mass market, and is still underpenetrated [10][12].

**5. H-A premium argued to be a "new normal" (TP-raise mechanic for the H-share)**
CATL-H rallied 23% post-listing and reached an **11% premium to CATL-A — a configuration not seen since 2014** [7]. CLSA's 25 May follow-up argued this is not just IPO-optimism noise: BYD-H was simultaneously running at a ~3-5% premium to BYD-A from May onwards, suggesting a new structural pattern for large-cap dual-listed Chinese names [8]. On 10 June, CLSA hard-wired this into the model — switching its CATL-H assumption from a **5% H-discount to a 10% H-premium** versus CATL-A, which mechanically lifts the CATL-H TP from HK$385 to HK$447. The CATL-A SOTP target (Rmb380) was left unchanged [11].

## What CLSA did NOT change

- 25-27CL net-profit forecasts moved only modestly (+0.5–2.0%) at the May upgrade [3]; the re-rating is driven by multiple expansion and the H-A premium reset, not earnings revisions.
- The CATL-A target has been at Rmb380 since 20 May — three subsequent updates have all left it unchanged [3][8][11].
- HC O-PF has been reiterated three times since the 20 May upgrade — i.e. CLSA's positive stance is reaffirmed, not escalated further.

## Bottom line

CLSA is **clearly incrementally more positive** on CATL over April–June 2025. The decisive step was the **20 May upgrade to High-Conviction Outperform** (the firm's top conviction tier), driven by (i) tech leadership reaffirmed at Tech Day, (ii) HK IPO overhang cleared with US$4.6bn fresh capital, and (iii) tariff risk reframed as manageable. The subsequent moves are reinforcing rather than new — CLSA tightened the H-share valuation framework (5% discount → 10% premium) and leaned harder on the premium-EV market-share story (72% in >Rmb300k EVs) to justify holding HC O-PF through a softer China EV demand backdrop.

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**Sources**
[1] CATL - O-PF (Leading the pack) — CLSA (21 Apr 2025) — 607956446LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] CATL - O-PF (Leading the pack) — CLSA (21 Apr 2025) — 607956446LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] CATL - HC O-PF (A new era) — CLSA (20 May 2025) — 607959766LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] CATL - HC O-PF (A new era) — CLSA (20 May 2025) — 607959766LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] CATL - HC O-PF (A new era) — CLSA (20 May 2025) — 607959766LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] CATL - HC O-PF (A new era) — CLSA (20 May 2025) — 607959766LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] CATL - HC O-PF (A new normal?) — CLSA (25 May 2025) — 607960433LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] CATL - HC O-PF (A new normal?) — CLSA (25 May 2025) — 607960433LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] CATL - HC O-PF (A new era) — CLSA (20 May 2025) — 607959766LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] CATL (Green shoots) — CLSA (10 Jun 2025) — 607961671LinqAlpha.PDF
[11] CATL (Green shoots) — CLSA (10 Jun 2025) — 607961671LinqAlpha.PDF
[12] CATL (Green shoots) — CLSA (10 Jun 2025) — 607961671LinqAlpha.PDF
[13] CATL (Green shoots) — CLSA (10 Jun 2025) — 607961671LinqAlpha.PDF

