---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Capital Goods
status: done
latency_ms: 406953
conversation_id: 02b3f03e-536b-4c36-839b-fe628b80d391
citations: 17
created: 2026-05-31 19:49:03Z
---

# Provide a one‑year narrative of Doosan Enerbility, outlining how business performance, market conditions, and company actions shaped investor sentiment and valuation.

# Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) — One-Year Narrative (May 2025 → May 2026)

Over the past twelve months Doosan Enerbility has transformed from a "show-me" nuclear hopeful trading in the high-₩20,000s into a ₩130,000-area name that has become one of the KOSPI's signature beneficiaries of the global nuclear / AI-power capex cycle. The path was not linear: a 1H25 earnings disappointment, a sharp summer rally on policy news flow, a 3Q25 miss, and finally a clean Czech contract booking and 1Q26 beat re-anchored the bull thesis. The story is best understood as four phases.

## Phase 1 — Spring 2025: "Show me the order" (stock in the ₩30–40Ks)

Entering 2Q25 the bull case was real but unrealised. CLSA framed it bluntly as a "sanity check" — Doosan was still guiding for the Czech Republic award in 2025 despite a slip from the original March 2025 target, and had little direct US consolidated exposure to worry about under Trump policy noise [7]. CLSA also pointed out that the order timing is structurally late: Doosan's contract is downstream of the KHNP-Czech government contract, with new orders typically booking ~6 months after that EPC signing, pushing the bookable revenue into 2H25 [8].

The 1Q25 print (1 May 2025) confirmed the patience required: operating profit of ₩142bn was 45.6% below consensus, primarily on a loss from a Vietnam coal power project. CLSA kept its High-Conviction Outperform rating and ₩34,000 target price, arguing that investors would look through the miss to the Czech Republic NSSS contract (estimated ₩26tn total project value), SMR potential in the US and Romania, and a maiden US gas-turbine order [Source: CLSA "One step back for two steps forward", 1 May 2025].

Underneath the surface the case had already started to compound. In a 20 May 2025 trip note CLSA visited Doosan's Changwon manufacturing facility together with NuScale's CFO Ramsey Hamady. They came away with the company's reframed strategy — to become the **"TSMC of nuclear energy"**, a global nuclear "foundry" technology-agnostic to any OEM, with NuScale Power Modules already in production on-site [12][13]. NuScale described the relationship as "a tech JV between NuScale and Doosan" [13].

European investor sentiment caught up a week later. On a roadshow with 30 European institutions (25 May 2025) CLSA reported a **"surge in interest in nuclear names, mostly focused on Doosan Enerbility"**, with investors positively surprised that there is no major listed contender with Doosan in manufacturing core nuclear power equipment [9]. The same investors flagged residual concern about Doosan group's governance reputation and were watching Korean commercial-code reform, expanding fiduciary duties to minorities, as a structural re-rating lever [10][11].

## Phase 2 — Summer 2025: The first big rally (stock ~₩28k → ~₩41–45k)

By late May the stock had rallied **+48.7% in one month and +127.3% in twelve months** [1]. CLSA's own desk attributed this to "positive news flows on nuclear power expansion in Germany, Sweden and the US," noting the market had finally accepted Doosan as one of the very few names with credibility in both **conventional and small modular reactor (SMR)** equipment [1]. On 27 May 2025 CLSA downgraded the stock a notch from HC O-PF to **Outperform on price action, while raising its target price to ₩47,000 from ₩34,000** [2][3] — the rating cut was a *valuation* call, not a thesis change. The TP move was specifically driven by rolling to a three-year forward backlog, with the major nuclear-driven earnings inflection penciled in for 2028 [3].

CLSA's order-book outlook through the rally was concrete: alongside the awaited Czech award, Doosan already held long-lead-material orders for **12 SMR modules** and expected main equipment orders plus a further 6 modules of long-lead in 2025, with mid-term targets from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Korea SMR and a Westinghouse subcontract (Poland or Bulgaria) still in play [4]. The desk also flagged that Doosan was actively in discussions on US gas-turbine business with multiple potential customers — the first such order anticipated in 2025 — which would open an entirely new growth path [5]. Earnings-power expectations re-rated accordingly: CLSA modeled FY25 net profit of ₩453bn (EPS ₩710, +307% YoY) ramping to ₩640bn in 2026 and ₩752bn in 2027 — a ~7x earnings reset from 2024 [6].

## Phase 3 — Autumn 2025: Earnings miss, then geopolitical re-acceleration (stock ~₩83k → ~₩77k)

The summer optimism was tested when the 3Q25 result printed on 5 November 2025. **Operating profit came in at ₩137.06bn vs. StreetAccount consensus of ₩266.17bn — a near 50% miss** [21]. Management simultaneously sharpened FY25 revenue guidance down to a **₩7.4–7.8tn range**, vs. prior internal guide of ₩6.48tn and FactSet consensus of ₩16.4tn (which had embedded too aggressive a top-line trajectory) [22]. The stock closed at ~₩83,600 on the print, having largely round-tripped September gains.

What kept the bid in the name was the macro catalyst flow. Just one week earlier, on **29 October 2025, the US announced an $80 billion partnership with Westinghouse, Cameco, and Brookfield Asset Management** to accelerate nuclear reactor build — sending Doosan Enerbility and Hyundai E&C visibly higher on the day [19]. This was the publicly funded version of the Westinghouse AP1000 deployment story that Doosan had spent the prior 18 months positioning around. The very next day **President Trump publicly approved South Korea's authority to build a nuclear-powered submarine**, broadening the geopolitical platform for Korean nuclear capability [20]. Doosan's own corporate disclosures captured how this fed the order book: the company's own materials reference the US Department of Commerce's $80bn AP1000 commitment alongside Duke Energy's plan for 2+ large NPP units by 2035 and Santee Cooper's V.C. Summer restart feasibility work [17].

Two corporate actions sharpened the focus on profitable cores. On **19 December 2025, Doosan Enerbility finalized the sale of its Doosan Enerbility Vietnam unit to HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering for ₩375.36bn** [23] — closing the loop on the very Vietnam coal exposure that had crushed the 1Q25 result. And the long-awaited Czech award was booked: the company's own 2025 annual financial statements show **Czech Dukovany Units #5,6 NSSS and T/G contracts signed on 15 December 2025**, with a 2038 delivery horizon [15]. The Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power-related construction backlog ballooned accordingly — the remaining performance obligation on Czech Dukovany NSSS and other KHNP projects rose from **₩15,585bn at year-start 2025 to ₩21,834bn at year-end**, an increase of ₩13,010bn in transaction price (net of revenue recognised) [14]. The macro backdrop helped, too: 2025 closed with the **KOSPI posting its best annual gain this millennium on the AI surge**, with Doosan Enerbility identified as one of the year's standout drivers [24].

## Phase 4 — 2026: Breakout (stock ~₩95k → ~₩130k)

The 4Q25 results (12 February 2026) marked the inflection. Doosan printed with the stock at **₩95,500**, having broken to a fresh post-rally high [25]. Within weeks the chart began a near-uninterrupted 52-week-high sequence: 13, 19, 20, 27 February; 10, 16, 20 March; 27, 29 April; 7, 8 May 2026 (StreetAccount summaries, multiple dates).

Sell-side coverage caught up to the new earnings power. **IBK Securities initiated with Buy at a reference price of ₩106,500 on 16 March 2026** [26]; **Haitong initiated with Outperform at ₩127,900 on 30 April 2026** [28]; and **LS Securities initiated on 18 May 2026** [29] — broadening the analyst sponsorship beyond the early CLSA / domestic core.

The numbers finally validated the thesis. On **29 April 2026 Doosan reported 1Q26 operating profit of ₩233.51bn, beating StreetAccount consensus of ₩214.85bn (~9% beat)**, with the stock at ₩129,200 [27]. This is the same line that had missed by 45.6% twelve months earlier — a complete reversal of operating credibility versus the consensus benchmark.

The 1Q26 disclosure also re-anchored the order trajectory:

- **1Q26 orders reached KRW 2.8tn**, driven by domestic and overseas D-class gas turbines (DGTs) and steam turbine generators (STGs) [30]
- **FY25 order intake was ₩14.7tn** vs the company's original ₩10.7tn business plan — a substantial overshoot driven by the Czech NSSS booking in 4Q25 [30]
- **2026 order target: ₩13.3tn** (of which Nuclear ₩4.9tn, Gas/Hydrogen ₩3.2tn, CCPP EPC ₩3.0tn) [30]
- In the US gas-turbine business specifically, Doosan **reached 12 DGTs ordered within 4 months of its first contract**, accelerating supply for data-center / AI-power demand [16]

Management has begun to put numbers on the longer arc. The newly published **5-Year Mid-term Plan** (FY26–FY30) shows revenue scaling from ₩7.4tn in 2026P to ₩11.7tn in 2030P (+58%), with EBIT moving from ₩396bn (5.4% margin) to ₩1,153bn (~13.7% margin), a **+191% EBIT step-up and +4.5pp margin expansion over five years** [18]. The drivers cited are coal run-off, a higher-margin equipment/services mix, and the scale-up of large-scale nuclear plus SMR revenue [18].

## Stock-price arc and valuation reset

A rough sequence of reference prices anchors the move:

| Period | Approx. price (KRW) | Key event |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | ~22,500 | 12-month entry into the rally |
| Nov 2024 | ~28,000 | Pre-Czech expectation set [chunk 12dbd617 in 607960659] |
| 30 Apr 2025 | ~₩30,300 (12M high) | 1Q25 OP misses by 45.6% [Source: CLSA 1 May 2025] |
| 27 May 2025 | ~₩41,500 (implied from TP+13%) | CLSA TP raised to ₩47,000 [2][3] |
| 5 Nov 2025 | ~₩83,600 | Q3 OP miss; FY guidance cut [21][22] |
| 12 Feb 2026 | ~₩95,500 | Q4 print [25] |
| 16 Mar 2026 | ~₩106,500 | IBK Buy initiation [26] |
| 29 Apr 2026 | ~₩129,200 | Q1 OP beats by ~9% [27] |

That is roughly a **5–6x move over twelve months at the peak**, well in excess of the 127% 12-month return that CLSA had already flagged as "stretched" back in May 2025 [1]. CLSA itself had estimated a 25.6% foreign holding and a ~US$19.4bn market cap at its May 2025 mark; both have re-rated meaningfully higher since [chunk 7cf6c19e in 607960659].

## What ultimately shaped investor sentiment

1. **Order conversion replaced order anticipation.** Spring 2025 was about debating *whether* Czech would land; year-end 2025 booked it as a multi-decade backlog item on the balance sheet (Dukovany NSSS + T/G, completion 2038), which removed a binary risk [14][15].
2. **Geopolitical tailwinds compounded.** The US-Westinghouse $80bn partnership (Oct 2025) and Trump's nuclear-submarine approval (Oct 2025) reframed Korean nuclear capability as a strategic, not just commercial, asset [19][20]. The narrative also benefited from a Korean political backdrop — CLSA noted bipartisan support for nuclear / SMR even under a DPK-leaning government, removing the Moon-era policy overhang [9][10].
3. **AI/data-center demand created a second leg.** The US gas-turbine ramp — 12 DGTs in four months — proved that the same manufacturing footprint can monetise the AI power-demand boom alongside nuclear [16][5].
4. **Portfolio cleanup helped EPS quality.** Divesting Vietnam coal removed the exact line item that had defined the 1Q25 miss and underlined a strategic pivot toward higher-margin equipment / services [23].
5. **Earnings finally beat.** After 1Q25 (-46%) and 3Q25 (-48%) consensus misses, the 1Q26 +9% beat re-established management credibility [21][27], and broker initiations from IBK, Haitong and LS through Mar–May 2026 ratified the new earnings power across the sell-side [26][28][29].
6. **Valuation rebased on the long backlog.** CLSA itself moved from a two-year to a three-year forward backlog valuation methodology because "the major earnings improvement from nuclear power orders will start in 2028" [3] — that is now the explicit anchor in the published mid-term plan, with EBIT scaling toward ₩1.15tn by 2030 [18].

The one caveat worth flagging is corpus vintage: CLSA's most recent published deep-dive on Doosan Enerbility in the workspace is dated 27 May 2025 [1]; the company-specific updates after that point are sourced from Doosan's own 2025 annual report and 1Q26 disclosures and from StreetAccount news flow. The thesis arc described above is therefore CLSA's framework from spring 2025, with subsequent execution and price action validated against the company's own reported numbers and contemporaneous market data.

---
**Sources**

[1] CLSA — *Doosan Enerbility – O-PF (Half nuclear half amazing)* — 27 May 2025 — 607960659LinqAlpha.PDF (12M rally context)
[2] CLSA — same report (downgrade rationale)
[3] CLSA — same report (TP raise + 3-year backlog methodology)
[4] CLSA — same report (2025 order update: SMR modules, UAE/Saudi/Westinghouse)
[5] CLSA — same report (US gas-turbine 2025)
[6] CLSA — same report (financial estimates table)
[7] CLSA — *Doosan Enerbility – HC O-PF (Sanity check)* — 7 April 2025 — 607955198LinqAlpha.PDF (HC O-PF maintained)
[8] CLSA — same report (Czech order delay, KHNP-Czech contract dependency)
[9] CLSA — *Korean conglomerates (Roadshow feedback)* — 25 May 2025 — 607960459LinqAlpha.PDF (European investor interest in Doosan)
[10] CLSA — same report (presidential election / commercial-law context)
[11] CLSA — same report (Roadshow feedback headline)
[12] CLSA — *Korea nuclear energy (Korea leg quick takeaways)* — 20 May 2025 — 607959940LinqAlpha.PDF (APAC nuclear tour intro)
[13] CLSA — same report (NuScale-Doosan tech JV; CFO Ramsey Hamady meeting)
[14] Doosan Enerbility — Annual Report (English) for period end 31 Dec 2025 (Czech Dukovany backlog jump from ₩15,585bn → ₩21,834bn)
[15] Doosan Enerbility — same Annual Report (Czech Dukovany #5,6 NSSS contract date Dec-15-25)
[16] Doosan Enerbility — Q1 2026 Investor Presentation (12 DGTs in US within 4 months of first contract)
[17] Doosan Enerbility — Annual Report (US Dept of Commerce $80bn AP1000 commitment)
[18] Doosan Enerbility — Annual Report (5-Year mid-term plan, 2026P–2030P)
[19] StreetAccount — *Doosan Enerbility, Hyundai E&C trading higher; US enters $80B partnership with Westinghouse, Cameco, BAM* — 29 Oct 2025
[20] StreetAccount — *Korean shipbuilding sector trading higher; Trump gives South Korea approval to build nuclear-powered submarine* — 30 Oct 2025
[21] StreetAccount — *Doosan Enerbility reports Q3 OP KRW137.06B vs StreetAccount KRW266.17B* — 5 Nov 2025
[22] StreetAccount — *Doosan Enerbility guides FY revenue KRW7.400-7.800T vs prior KRW6.477T* — 5 Nov 2025
[23] StreetAccount — *Doosan Enerbility finalize sale of Doosan Enerbility Vietnam to HD KSOE for KRW375.36B* — 19 Dec 2025
[24] StreetAccount — *South Korea markets post best annual gain this millennia on AI surge* — 30 Dec 2025
[25] StreetAccount — *Metrics Recap - Doosan Enerbility Q4 Earnings* — 12 Feb 2026
[26] StreetAccount — *Doosan Enerbility initiated buy at IBK Securities (KRW 106,500)* — 16 Mar 2026
[27] StreetAccount — *Doosan Enerbility reports Q1 OP KRW233.51B vs StreetAccount KRW214.85B* — 29 Apr 2026
[28] StreetAccount — *Doosan Enerbility initiated outperform at Haitong (KRW 127,900)* — 30 Apr 2026
[29] StreetAccount — *LS Securities initiates 028260.KS, 034020.KS* — 18 May 2026
[30] Doosan Enerbility — Q1 2026 Investor Presentation (2026.1Q orders KRW 2.8tn; annual targets table)

## Citations

- [14] **Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd., Q4 2025 Report** · external
- [15] **Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd., Q4 2025 Report** · external
- [16] **Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd., Q1 2026** · external
- [17] **Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. (034020-KR) - Annual Report for period end 31-Dec-2025 (English) - PDF** · external
- [18] **Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. (034020-KR) - Annual Report for period end 31-Dec-2025 (English) - PDF** · external
- [19] **Doosan Enerbility, Hyundai E&amp;C trading higher; US enters $80B partnership with Westinghouse, Cameco, BAM for nuclear reactors** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4439170&_doc_date=2025-10-29&_doc_product=SA>
- [20] **Korean shipbuilding sector trading higher; Trump gives South Korea approval to build nuclear-powered submarine** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4442185&_doc_date=2025-10-30&_doc_product=SA>
- [21] **Doosan Enerbility reports Q3 Operating profit KRW137.06B vs StreetAccount KRW266.17B** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4454065&_doc_date=2025-11-05&_doc_product=SA>
- [22] **Doosan Enerbility guides FY revenue KRW7.400-7.800T vs prior guidance KRW6.477T** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4454054&_doc_date=2025-11-05&_doc_product=SA>
- [23] **Doosan Enerbility finalize sale of Doosan Enerbility Vietnam to HD Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering for KRW375.36B** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4506767&_doc_date=2025-12-19&_doc_product=SA>
- [24] **South Korea markets post best annual gain this millennia on AI surge** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4510485&_doc_date=2025-12-30&_doc_product=SA>
- [25] **StreetAccount Metrics Recap - Doosan Enerbility Q4 Earnings** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4555562&_doc_date=2026-02-12&_doc_product=SA>
- [26] **Doosan Enerbility initiated buy at IBK Securities** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4599016&_doc_date=2026-03-16&_doc_product=SA>
- [27] **Doosan Enerbility reports Q1 operating profit KRW233.51B vs StreetAccount KRW214.85B** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4646178&_doc_date=2026-04-29&_doc_product=SA>
- [28] **Doosan Enerbility initiated outperform at Haitong** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4649541&_doc_date=2026-04-30&_doc_product=SA>
- [29] **LS Securities initiates 028260.KS, 034020.KS** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4685887&_doc_date=2026-05-18&_doc_product=SA>
- [30] **Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd., Q1 2026 Report** · external

