---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Property
status: done
latency_ms: 209352
conversation_id: 4119ce13-ce97-413d-bab2-01435de11832
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 19:38:23Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on CapitaLand Integrated CT. If so, why?

## CLSA's Stance on CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP / C38U) — Incrementally MORE Positive

**Short answer:** CLSA is **incrementally more positive on CICT** in qualitative terms — CICT has been elevated from "one of our top picks" within the Singapore REIT coverage to a **regional REIT top pick** alongside Keppel DC, Goodman and Industrial & Infrastructure Fund — but the formal **rating (O-PF) and target price (S$2.35) have been unchanged since 7 Sep 2024**, with upside compressing to **+7.8%** as the stock has rallied to S$2.18 [1][2].

---

### 1. Quantitative call: rating/TP held, but upside is shrinking

CLSA has run a flat call on rating + TP for three consecutive quarters, even as the unit price has rallied:

| Date | Rec | TP (S$) | Spot (S$) | Implied upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2023 | O-PF | 2.05 | — | — |
| 06 Feb 2024 | O-PF | 2.10 | — | — |
| 28 Jun 2024 | O-PF | 2.10 | — | — |
| 04 Sep 2024 | O-PF | 2.25 | — | — |
| **07 Sep 2024** | **O-PF** | **2.35** | — | — |
| 05 Nov 2024 (3Q24 results) | O-PF | 2.35 | 2.04 | +15% [12] |
| 12 Nov 2024 (Collyer Quay divestment) | O-PF | 2.35 | — | maintained [9] |
| 05 Feb 2025 (FY24 results) | O-PF | 2.35 | — | maintained [8] |
| 22 Jun 2025 | O-PF | 2.35 | 2.17 | +8% |
| **29 Jun 2025** | **O-PF** | **2.35** | **2.18** | **+7.8%** [1] |

Source: CLSA rating history table in the 5-Feb-2025 results note [10] and the live recap tables in the 22-Jun and 29-Jun Realty Times [1].

The TP was last raised on **7 Sep 2024 (S$2.25 → S$2.35)**, and has been held flat ever since across the Collyer Quay divestment update [9], the FY24 results [8] and through the 1H25 Singapore property weeklies [1]. With the unit price at S$2.18, only **~8% fundamental upside** remains — the cushion has narrowed materially from the +15% standing post-FY24 print [12].

---

### 2. Qualitative call: clearly MORE positive — promoted to *regional* top pick

While the TP is static, CLSA's positioning language has been steadily upgraded:

- **November 2024** (3Q24 results note): "CICT remains one of our top picks" — framed within S-REIT coverage [13].
- **February 2025** (FY24 results): "Armed with a more resilient SG centric portfolio, stronger balance sheet & 5.6% dividend yield, CICT remains one of our top picks with S$2.35 TP, OPF" [8].
- **22/29 June 2025** (Realty Times, Singapore property): CICT continues to be flagged as a **top pick within Singapore REITs**, with "high Singapore centric earnings portfolio and resilient retail exposure" [3].
- **29 June 2025 — Global Themes Half-time Review**: CICT was **promoted into CLSA's regional REIT top-pick basket** ("Our top picks are CapitaLand Integrated CT, Keppel DC Reit, Goodman and Industrial and Infrastructure Fund") alongside the Australian and Japanese names [2]. This is a notable elevation — CICT now sits in the cross-market shortlist, not just the Singapore-only one.
- **23 June 2025 — Price Action Asean (CLSA Technical desk)**: separately featured CICT as a **technical buy candidate**, citing a breakout setup [4]: a sustained move above S$2.16 implies a breakout from the Aug-2024–Jun-2025 trading range with upside targets of **S$2.48 (intermediate) and S$2.58 (measured-move)** [5] — i.e. CLSA's chart-based view sees **12–18% additional upside above** the fundamental S$2.35 TP, signalling growing conviction.

---

### 3. Why CLSA is incrementally more constructive — the drivers

**(a) Macro / rate-cycle tailwind is now their base case.** CLSA's June half-time review explicitly bakes in **two Fed rate cuts starting 4Q25 (year-end 4.00%) + a further 25bp in 1Q26**. Their sensitivity work flags **S-REITs as the single biggest beneficiary in APAC** (+3.9% on a 100bp lower refinancing cost) given low fixed-rate hedging — this directly underpins the upgrade to regional top-pick status [2].

**(b) Balance-sheet concerns have been resolved.** The 21 Collyer Quay sale at 6% premium to book and a 3.5% exit yield drove gearing from 39.9% → **38.3%** (now marginally below sector avg of 39.4%), with potential further decline to ~36% if the Citadines/Bukit Panjang divestments complete [15]. CLSA explicitly listed "**easing balance sheet concerns**" as a catalyst in the latest Realty Times [6].

**(c) Retail / downtown malls now firmly outperforming.** Portfolio reversion ran **8.7% in 12M24** with **downtown mall reversion at +17.0%** [10], well ahead of suburban (+1.3%) — CLSA highlights "recovering tourism outlook in Singapore should support rents and tenant sales for its downtown mall portfolio" [3].

**(d) ION acquisition now closed.** The Feb-2025 note emphasises CICT is "well positioned to ride on the resilient retail market" with the **ION acquisition in the bag**, plus a stronger balance sheet and a 5.6% dividend yield [8].

**(e) Singapore-centric defensiveness premium.** In the 29-Jun thesis update, CLSA reiterates: "*A high Singapore centric earnings portfolio and resilient retail exposure puts CICT as one of our top picks*" [3]. In a sector where they remain cautious on office Grade-A rents (modest 2% growth, cap rate expansion easing) and where AU/HK exposure carries FX risk, CICT's SG-skew is being valued more highly [3][7].

**(f) Confirming flows.** Institutional flow data CLSA cites turned outright positive in mid-June 2025 — CICT was **the #3 largest net institutional buy** at **S$34.0m** in the week of 16 June [11], reversing earlier outflows.

---

### 4. What's NOT positive (the offset to the constructive view)

- **TP unchanged for 9+ months** despite the structurally improved set-up — the **+7.8% upside** to S$2.35 is now thin enough that any further unit-price strength would force CLSA to either lift the TP or downgrade conviction [1].
- **Office portfolio** still flagged as a concern — CLSA expects only "modest 2% growth in Singapore" Grade A office rents [3].
- **Risk box** still highlights trade-war recession risk, e-commerce competition in retail, and AU FX risk [7].
- The DDM driving the S$2.35 TP uses a relatively unchanged framework (risk-free 3.0%, ERP 6.0%, cost-of-equity 7.4%, terminal growth 1.6%) [14] — so the unchanged TP is partly a function of CLSA not yet flexing assumptions for the new rate-cut path they now expect.

---

### 5. Bottom line

**Incrementally more positive, despite a static rating + TP.** The signal is in the *positioning*: CICT has been promoted from a Singapore-only top pick to a **regional REIT top pick**, paired with a separate **technical buy-candidate flag with S$2.48–2.58 upside targets** from the Asean desk, and underpinned by CLSA's newly-firm Fed-cut base case which they identify S-REITs as the largest beneficiary of [2][4][5]. The unchanged S$2.35 TP looks increasingly behind the qualitative narrative — the next likely move is **upward TP revision** rather than downgrade, given the resolved gearing overhang, the ION acquisition closure, and the now-confirmed rate-cut path. Note CLSA's S-REIT corpus syncs through end-June 2025 — no post-June revisions are visible in this dataset.

---

**Sources**
[1] Singapore Property (Realty Times) — CLSA, 29 Jun 2025 — 607962978LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] Global Themes 2025 (Half-time Review) — CLSA, 29 Jun 2025 — 607960638LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] Singapore Property (Realty Times) — CLSA, 29 Jun 2025 (Investment thesis section) — 607962978LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] Price Action Asean (Diverse Assortment) — CLSA Technical Desk, 23 Jun 2025 — 607962557LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] Price Action Asean (CICT breakout view) — CLSA, 23 Jun 2025 — 607962557LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] Singapore Property (Realty Times) — CLSA, 22 Jun 2025 (Catalysts section) — 607962509LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] Singapore Property (Realty Times) — CLSA, 22 Jun 2025 (Investment risks section) — 607962509LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] CapitaLand Integrated CT — O-PF (Solid Results) — CLSA, 5 Feb 2025 — 607949718LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] CapitaLand Integrated CT — O-PF (Divestment of 21 Collyer Quay) — CLSA, 12 Nov 2024 — 607944104LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] CapitaLand Integrated CT — Rating/TP history table — CLSA, 5 Feb 2025 — 607949718LinqAlpha.PDF
[11] Singapore Property (Realty Times) — Weekly institutional flow table — CLSA, 29 Jun 2025 — 607962978LinqAlpha.PDF
[12] CapitaLand Integrated CT — O-PF (Steady outlook for 2025) — CLSA, 5 Nov 2024 — 607943410LinqAlpha.PDF
[13] CapitaLand Integrated CT — O-PF (Steady outlook for 2025, "top pick" framing) — CLSA, 5 Nov 2024 — 607943410LinqAlpha.PDF
[14] Singapore Property (Realty Times) — DDM Valuation details — CLSA, 22 Jun 2025 — 607962509LinqAlpha.PDF
[15] CapitaLand Integrated CT — Gearing analysis post-Collyer Quay divestment — CLSA, 12 Nov 2024 — 607944104LinqAlpha.PDF

