---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Financial Services
status: done
latency_ms: 220275
conversation_id: 745acce5-1b13-4fba-8931-1b68e9c80e80
citations: 12
created: 2026-05-31 22:03:00Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Bank Central Asia. If so, why?

**Verdict: CLSA has been incrementally more positive on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) over the last ~9 months, though that positivity has stabilised rather than continued to build in the latest April 2025 update.**

The story is best read as a "U-shape": CLSA was Outperform in early 2024, briefly downgraded to HOLD at the 2Q24 print (Jul-2024), then re-upgraded to Outperform in Oct-2024 and has progressively raised its target price since. As of the most recent CLSA note in the archive (1Q25 review, **23 Apr 2025**, lead analyst Sarina Lesmina, CFA), the call is **O-PF with a Rp12,100 12M target price** [10][12].

*Note on corpus recency*: The most recent CLSA note on BBCA in our scope is dated 23-Apr-2025 (1Q25 review); there are no later CLSA notes on the name in this archive, so "latest CLSA view" reads relative to that vintage.

---

## CLSA's rating & TP trajectory on BBCA

| Date | Note | Rating | 12M TP (Rp) | Trigger |
|------|------|--------|-------------|---------|
| 22-Apr-2024 | Another good quarter | O-PF | n/a in scope | 1Q24 results |
| **24-Jul-2024** | Another solid quarter | **HOLD (↓)** | **10,820** (up from 10,350) | "Less than a 10% total return" after share-price rally [8][9] |
| **01-Oct-2024** | Staying 'best-in-class' | **O-PF (↑)** | **11,900** (up from 10,820) | UK/Europe NDR; higher sustainable ROE; dividend payout upside; flow-related stock correction [6][11] |
| 23-Oct-2024 | Trading Advantage 3Q24 | O-PF | 11,900 | 9M24 NPAT 76% of FY |
| 07-Nov-2024 | A journey worth taking | O-PF | 11,900 | ESG deep-dive |
| **23-Jan-2025** | A great close to the year | O-PF | **12,100** (raised) | FY24 NPAT Rp54.8tn, +12.8% YoY in line; FY24 NIM 5.8%; CoC 30bps [5] |
| **23-Apr-2025** | Good earnings despite tough macro | **O-PF (maintained)** | **12,100 (maintained)** | 1Q25 NPAT Rp14.1tn, +9.5% YoY / +3% QoQ; 1Q25 NIM 5.8%; PB derated to 3.5x 26CL — below historical mean [1][2][3][4] |

Net delta vs the trough call (Jul-2024 HOLD): rating restored to **O-PF**, TP raised by **+11.8%** (Rp10,820 → Rp12,100), and the language has moved from "less than 10% total return" [8] to "PB below historical mean" with implied +39% upside [4].

---

## Why CLSA is incrementally more positive (the drivers)

### 1. Valuation has rerated lower while fundamentals held — the central reason in the April 2025 note
At the Jul-2024 downgrade, the stock was trading at **4.3x 25CL PB** with TP Rp10,820 implying only a single-digit total return [9]. By the Apr-2025 review the stock had derated to **3.5x PB 26CL — explicitly flagged as "below the historical mean"** while ROE remained ~21% [4]. The 1Q25 cover shows the stock −10.3% absolute over 12M, with implied potential upside of **+39%** to the Rp12,100 TP [12]. Mechanically the bull case rebuilt because the multiple fell, not because earnings were lifted aggressively (CLSA made "very slight changes to 25/26CL earnings" in April 2025 [4]).

### 2. Margin resilience has surprised positively — the original Oct-2024 upgrade trigger
At the Jul-2024 HOLD, FY24 NIM was guided at 5.5-5.6%. By the Oct-2024 upgrade, CLSA highlighted that **"YTD NIM is still running ahead of the bank's guidance"** and that BCA expected **"minimal volatility in 2025 despite the rate cut cycle"** — a thesis grounded in stable asset yields, ample liquidity, and protected CASA economics [11]. CLSA explicitly raised "24-26CL earnings by 1.4-2.2% largely on higher NIM assumptions" alongside the upgrade [7]. In 1Q25, NIM came in at **5.8%, in line with FY25 guidance (5.7-5.8%)** and unchanged YoY despite the rate environment — vindicating the thesis [3].

### 3. Loan growth quality has improved
- Jul-2024 (HOLD): loans +15.5% YoY but driven by corporate (mineral downstream); CLSA flagged some downgrades in restructured commercial/SME/mortgage book that lifted gross NPL to 2.2% [8].
- Oct-2024 (upgrade): CLSA identified **"SME as the new growth engine (indeed it has been growing above industry), followed by consumer"** for medium-term, riding the middle-class story [6].
- 1Q25: loans +12.6% YoY / +2.1% QoQ — corporate still leading but consumer (esp. auto) also strong; FY25 guidance 6-8% (skewed to upper end) [2].

### 4. CASA franchise reinforcing — a longstanding bull-case anchor
In 1Q25, **CASA +6% QoQ / +8.3% YoY, CASA ratio 82.1%**, LDR fell to 76% with "ample liquidity," supporting NIM resilience even as loan yields are perceived to have bottomed [3]. CLSA frames this as durable competitive moat that justifies the historical PB premium.

### 5. Management transition is being treated as neutral
The new CEO Hendra Lembong (ex-deputy CEO) takes effect 1 June 2025; ex-CEO Jahja Setiaatmadja moves to President Commissioner. CLSA flagged this without rating impact, suggesting continuity is intact [10].

---

## Counter-points / where the incremental positivity is capped

The April 2025 stance is "**maintain O-PF**" with the **TP held flat at Rp12,100** — i.e. the *direction* of CLSA's incremental shift over the last 9 months has been positive (upgrade + TP raises), but the *latest data point* is a hold-the-line, not a fresh push higher:

- 2025 earnings growth slows materially: **25CL net profit +5.1% YoY** vs +12.7% in 24A and +19.4% in 23A [from CLSA financials table; see April 2025 doc].
- 2025 NIM guidance of **5.7-5.8% is below 24A's 6.0%** — CLSA's 25CL NIM is "stable YoY" at 5.8%, not expanding [3].
- 1Q25 CoC was front-loaded at 50bps (vs FY guidance 30bps); loan-at-risk rose 70bps QoQ to 6% on a mineral-related syndicated loan moving to short-term restructuring [3].
- Earnings revisions in the April 2025 note were described as **"very slight"** [4] — i.e. the incremental positivity is mostly from valuation rerating, not numbers going up.
- The June 2025 CLSA Indonesia strategy piece (post-AGM SOE governance reform note) tags **BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBTN** (state-owned banks) as the main subjects — BBCA is not named, suggesting CLSA's *relative* enthusiasm in Indonesia banks has tilted toward SOE banks where the Danantara governance catalyst is concentrated, even while BBCA is held at O-PF.

---

## Bottom line

CLSA is **incrementally more positive on BBCA** vs its mid-2024 trough call, with the key marker being the **Oct-2024 upgrade from HOLD to O-PF and TP +9.9% to Rp11,900** [6][7], followed by a further TP step-up to Rp12,100 in Jan-2025 [5]. The *driver* is a combination of: (i) the stock derating to 3.5x PB 26CL — below historical mean — while ROE held at ~21% [4]; (ii) NIM resilience tracking ahead of CLSA's earlier conservative bias [11]; and (iii) a clearer narrative on SME/consumer as multi-year growth engines [6]. As of the latest 23-Apr-2025 note, the call is **steady at O-PF, TP Rp12,100, implied +39% potential return** [1][12] — incrementally positive vs Jul-2024, but with the next upward push now needing earnings (not just multiple) to do the work given 25CL EPS growth slowing to +5.1%.

---
**Sources**
[1] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Good earnings despite tough macro) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — 607956688LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Good earnings despite tough macro) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — 607956688LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Good earnings despite tough macro) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — 607956688LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Good earnings despite tough macro) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — 607956688LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (A great close to the year) — CLSA (23 Jan 2025) — 607948915LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Staying 'best-in-class') — CLSA (1 Oct 2024) — 607940523LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Staying 'best-in-class') — CLSA (1 Oct 2024) — 607940523LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] Bank Central Asia – HLD (Another solid quarter) — CLSA (24 Jul 2024) — 607934498LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] Bank Central Asia – HLD (Another solid quarter) — CLSA (24 Jul 2024) — 607934498LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Good earnings despite tough macro) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — 607956688LinqAlpha.PDF
[11] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Staying 'best-in-class') — CLSA (1 Oct 2024) — 607940523LinqAlpha.PDF
[12] Bank Central Asia – O-PF (Good earnings despite tough macro) — CLSA (23 Apr 2025) — 607956688LinqAlpha.PDF

## Citations

- [1] **607956688LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956688LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607956688LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956688LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607956688LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956688LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607956688LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956688LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607948915LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/01/607948915LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607940523LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607940523LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607940523LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607940523LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607934498LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/07/607934498LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607934498LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/07/607934498LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [10] **607956688LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956688LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [11] **607940523LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607940523LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [12] **607956688LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607956688LinqAlpha.PDF>

