---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Insurance
status: done
latency_ms: 195920
conversation_id: 824a213a-b241-4b2e-8807-cae5089b573b
citations: 10
created: 2026-05-31 21:48:28Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Ping An. If so, why?

**Yes — CLSA has been incrementally MORE POSITIVE on Ping An since November 2024, and that incrementally-positive stance has been carried forward (rating O-PF maintained) through the latest internal sync.**

The pivot was explicit in CLSA's 6-Nov-2024 sector note "Time for the optimists" (Edwin Liu, Mindy Gao). It has since been reaffirmed at the CITICS conference takeaways (Nov 2024) and carried through two analyst-transfer notes (Mindy Gao on 24-Mar-2025, Ding Luo on 13-May-2025) with target prices trimmed modestly but rating unchanged.

## What changed and when

| Date | Note | H-share (2318 HK) | A-share (601318 CH) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-Nov-2024 | "Time for the optimists" | **O-PF, TP HK$58.0 → HK$71.3 (+23%)** [2][3][4] | **O-PF, TP Rmb67.4 → Rmb83.8 (+24%)** [2] | Incrementally positive; TP raised |
| 14-Nov-2024 | "Cautiously optimistic" (CITICS conf) | O-PF maintained | O-PF maintained | "Incremental positive changes in tone" [8] |
| 24-Mar-2025 | "China/HK insurance – Transfer of coverage" (to Mindy Gao) | **O-PF, TP HK$61.50** (price HK$49.30; ~+25% upside) [9] | O-PF, TP Rmb72.80 [9] | Ratings/TPs unchanged at transfer |
| 13-May-2025 | "China insurance – Transfer of coverage" (to Ding Luo) | **O-PF, TP HK$61.50** (price HK$46.50; ~+32% upside) [10] | O-PF, TP Rmb72.80 [10] | Latest CLSA position in this archive |

Note: Between Nov-2024 and the Mar-2025 transfer, the H-share TP was trimmed from HK$71.3 to HK$61.5 (the explicit cut isn't in a dedicated note within this corpus, but both transfer documents show the lower TP as the current standing CLSA view). Rating stayed O-PF throughout. Ping An is one of only four China life names CLSA explicitly flagged that they "like" (alongside PICC Group, Taiping, PICC P&C); top sector pick remains AIA [1][8].

## Why CLSA is incrementally more positive

**1. Sector-level drivers (the Nov-2024 pivot rationale):**
- *Stabilised long-term bond yield* and *improved market sentiment* — explicitly called out as the reason CLSA "turned incrementally positive on life insurers" [1].
- 9M24 sector net profit growth of +36% to +174% YoY driven by the stock rally; Ping An was singled out among the names that "outperformed in core insurance" alongside PICC Group and China Life [1].
- Across the sector, CLSA raised target PB multiples — Ping An's target PB went from 0.87x to **1.08x (+24%)** — reflecting "minor improvement on ROE" and Ping An's better-quality in-force book [2][5].

**2. Ping An-specific reasons (Nov-2024 results review):**
- 3Q24 results "largely in line" with CLSA expectations, with only modest estimate changes needed [5].
- Life NBV estimates raised on better-than-expected 3Q24 NBV growth amid last-call sales and better margins [5].
- P&C combined ratio (COR) improvement driven by a turnaround in the guarantee business [5].
- Investment thesis: "high-quality proxy for China's macro development, set to outperform in the context of a macro and market turn-around"; "the only non-SOE domestic insurer among the top five"; "life insurance in-force book quality better than major peers" [6].
- Dividend visibility argument: payouts referenced to OPAT (operating profit after tax), giving more stable cash returns than peers whose dividends are tied to net profit volatility [6].

**3. Confirmation from CITICS conference (14-Nov-2024):**
- CLSA flagged "incremental positive changes in tone from the insurance companies, particularly on margin trend and bond yields" [8].
- Ping An and CPIC remain "the most popular companies" with investors; CLSA's house view continues to favour Ping An [8].

**4. Catalysts CLSA is watching:**
- Sustained improvement in China's economy, bond yields, and the real estate sector
- Favourable regulatory policy shifts
- Capital allocation strategy changes (dividend / buyback signals) [7]

## Nuances to flag

- **The "incrementally positive" turn is sector-wide on China life insurers, not Ping An-specific** — CLSA's clearest positive signal was on the cohort of names they prefer (Ping An, PICC Group, Taiping, PICC P&C) [1]. Ping An benefits from the sector pivot plus a name-specific story (non-SOE differentiation, dividend visibility, in-force book quality) rather than a standalone re-rating.
- **The two most recent notes (24-Mar-2025 and 13-May-2025) are coverage-transfer notes, not fresh fundamental updates.** They confirm that the standing rating is still O-PF with TP HK$61.50 (H) / Rmb72.80 (A), but they don't contain a fresh thesis update under the new analyst (Ding Luo) [9][10].
- **TPs were trimmed between Nov-2024 (HK$71.3) and Mar-2025 (HK$61.5)** — implying some derating happened mid-stream, even as the directional stance (O-PF) and "incrementally positive" framing on the life sector remained intact.
- **Latest CLSA sync date in this archive on Ping An is 13-May-2025** [10]. Anything that may have shifted CLSA's view after that date is not captured here.

## Bottom line

CLSA is incrementally MORE positive on Ping An vs. its pre-Nov-2024 stance — driven by stabilised long-bond yields, improved sentiment, better 3Q24 fundamentals (life NBV margin, P&C COR), and Ping An's structural differentiation (non-SOE, OPAT-linked dividends, higher-quality in-force book). The latest available CLSA position (13-May-2025) is **O-PF, TP HK$61.50 (H) / Rmb72.80 (A)** [10], implying ~32% / ~41% upside from then-prevailing prices. The rating has been continuously O-PF since at least Nov-2024.

---
**Sources**
[1] China insurance – Time for the optimists — CLSA (5 Nov 2024) — 607943450LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] China insurance – Time for the optimists, Ping An target valuation table — CLSA (5 Nov 2024) — 607943450LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] China insurance – Time for the optimists, sector rating/TP table — CLSA (5 Nov 2024) — 607943450LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] China insurance – Time for the optimists, TP changes table — CLSA (5 Nov 2024) — 607943450LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] China insurance – Time for the optimists, Ping An results commentary — CLSA (5 Nov 2024) — 607943450LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] China insurance – Time for the optimists, Ping An investment thesis — CLSA (5 Nov 2024) — 607943450LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] China insurance – Time for the optimists, Ping An catalysts — CLSA (5 Nov 2024) — 607943450LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] China insurance – Cautiously optimistic (CITICS Capital Markets Conf takeaways) — CLSA (14 Nov 2024) — 607944405LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] China/HK insurance – Transfer of coverage (to Mindy Gao), Ping An TP HK$61.50 — CLSA (24 Mar 2025) — 607953670LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] China insurance – Transfer of coverage (to Ding Luo), Ping An TP HK$61.50 — CLSA (13 May 2025) — 607958951LinqAlpha.PDF

## Citations

- [1] **607943450LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607943450LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607943450LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607943450LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607943450LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607943450LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607943450LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607943450LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607943450LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607943450LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607943450LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607943450LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607943450LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607943450LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607944405LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/11/607944405LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607953670LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607953670LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [10] **607958951LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607958951LinqAlpha.PDF>

