---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: 08 · Workflow output
status: done
latency_ms: 238684
conversation_id: 96de3cbf-08ac-4dea-8c91-477d7d16c7dc
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 18:00:14Z
---

# Side-by-side comp table for the top five APAC EV-makers.

# APAC EV-Makers — Side-by-Side Comp Table (CLSA Coverage Universe)

**Source vintage**: CLSA "China Auto — Weekly orders remain stable" (25 Jun 2025), supported by BYD company-update note (26 Jun 2025). Prices as of 24 Jun 2025.

The five names below form CLSA's active China EV/NEV comp universe (with H-share snapshots). NIO appears in the orders-tracking pages but has no rating/TP card — flagged separately. Geely is included as CLSA's "second EV dominator" candidate even though it retains ICE exposure (CLSA blends 8x ICE / 16x EV in the SoTP) [15].

## 1. Headline Comp Table — Price, Market Cap, Rating, Target

| Metric | **BYD** [1] | **Li Auto** [2] | **Geely** [3] | **XPeng** [4] | **Leapmotor** [5] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Listing | 1211 HK / 002594 CH | 2015 HK / LI US | 175 HK | 9868 HK / XPEV US | 9863 HK |
| CLSA Rating | **HC O-PF** | O-PF | **HC O-PF** | O-PF | O-PF |
| Price (HK$) | 130.20 | 111.70 | 17.00 | 76.70 | 56.55 |
| 12M Target (HK$) | 161.00 | 140.00 | 23.00 | 106.00 | 72.00 |
| Up/Downside | +24% | +25% | +35% | +38% | +27% |
| Market Cap (US$bn) | 144.4 | 29.3 | 21.2 | 18.0 | 9.2 |
| 3M ADV (US$m) | 695.8 | 214.0 | 182.3 | 257.1 | 88.5 |

HC O-PF = High-Conviction Outperform; O-PF = Outperform.

## 2. Valuation Methodology

| Company | Valuation Basis | CLSA Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| **BYD** | 18.0x 26CL EPS (H-share); 19.6x 26CL EPS (A-share) | 10% premium to historical avg; model pipeline + supply-chain advantages + intelligent driving upside; "auto plus intelligence conglomerate" framing [7] |
| **Li Auto** | 20.5x 25CL PE | In line with peer average for profitable Chinese EV makers (BYD, Seres) [10] |
| **Geely** | 12x 26CL PE (SoTP: 8x ICE + 16x EV) | In line with 3-yr historical avg since EV rollout acceleration [15] |
| **XPeng** | 1.45x 26CL PS | ~5% premium to historical avg; sales growth, profitability visibility, ADAS moat, robotics 2nd-curve [11] |
| **Leapmotor** | 1.0x 26CL PS | 10% premium to peer average (Li Auto / BYD / XPeng / Seres / Geely) given profitability prospects [16] |

## 3. Investment Thesis (One-Liner)

| Company | CLSA Thesis |
|---|---|
| **BYD** | Vertical integration gives leeway in the price war; "visible overseas and high-end growth stories" [7] |
| **Li Auto** | Ranks top in vehicle delivery among new entrants; L6 entering mass market to drive incremental volume [8] |
| **Geely** | "Second candidate to grow to EV dominator" via strong EV rollout + improving profitability as industry consolidates toward tier-1 OEMs [9] |
| **XPeng** | Pioneer with top-tier ADAS; brand recognition deepening; VW partnership to enhance margin momentum [11] |
| **Leapmotor** | Expanding product matrix + cost-effective models = stable mass-EV share; export localisation via Stellantis (asset-light) [14] |

## 4. Key Catalysts & Risks

| Company | Catalysts | Risks |
|---|---|---|
| **BYD** | Battery-material change, new model/tech launches, price promotions, export sales [12] | Economic slowdown depressing big-ticket demand; EV policy reversal; tech bottlenecks; raw-material costs [12] |
| **Li Auto** | L6 mass-market traction; L7/8/9 recovery; lower-tier-city penetration; ADAS progress | BEV delivery misses; supply/capacity delays; technology roadmap risk |
| **Geely** | Success of new 2025 EV models; sustained EV penetration; vehicle-intelligence improvements | Slower intelligence development; intensified price competition; new-model sales miss |
| **XPeng** | New 2025 PHEV models; deeper VW cooperation; faster autonomous-driving penetration | Macro/regulatory; AD execution; model launch delays; fiercer China competition |
| **Leapmotor** | Faster export expansion; new models exceeding orders [16] | Stellantis cooperation delays; ADAS lag; price competition; geopolitical export risk [16] |

## 5. BYD Five-Year Financial Snapshot (CLSA Estimates) [6]

| Year to 31 Dec | 23A | 24A | 25CL | 26CL | 27CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Rmb m) | 602,315 | 777,102 | **986,309** | 1,208,456 | 1,450,147 |
| Net profit (Rmb m) | 30,041 | 40,254 | **60,581** | 75,057 | 90,265 |
| EPS (Rmb) | 3.44 | 4.62 | **6.64** | 8.23 | 9.90 |
| EPS growth YoY | +80.7% | +34.2% | **+43.9%** | +23.9% | +20.3% |
| PE (x) | 34.9 | 26.0 | **18.0** | 14.6 | 12.1 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| FCF yield (%) | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| PB (x) | 7.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| ROE (%) | 24.0 | 24.8 | **28.9** | 28.5 | 27.5 |
| Net cash / share (Rmb) | 7.48 | 6.59 | 6.16 | 10.17 | 14.88 |

CLSA's 25–27CL EPS run 9–15% above consensus [6].

## 6. Sector / Operational Context (this vintage)

- **Industry inflection**: State Council and CAAM moved on 1 Jun 2025 to cap OEM supplier payable turnover at 60 days vs industry avg ~220 days — shifting competition from pure price toward a "diversified value matrix" (intelligent driving, fast charging, safety, supply chain, residual value). CLSA views this as the start of regulator-driven margin healing.
- **BYD destocking**: CLSA flags BYD's reported production slowdown as plausible (monthly capacity ~500k vs output 300–400k); 2Q profit hit possible as dealer incentives ran Rmb700–800m vs Street's Rmb1bn expectation [12].
- **Weekly order pulse (16–22 Jun)**: BYD steady at ~80k; Geely Galaxy ~21.5k (-10% WoW); Tesla ~12k; Li Auto ~9k; XPeng saw 22.5k peak weeks; **NIO ~4.9–5.4k**, trending lower [13]; Leapmotor ~10k (+10% WoW after C16 facelift) [17].

## 7. NIO — Note on Inclusion

NIO is tracked in CLSA's weekly-orders dataset (recent weeks ~4.9–5.4k vs prior peak 9.2k in early April) [13] but is **not actively rated** in this comp note — no price, target, or thesis card was published. If the user wants a "five rated names" cut, the table above (BYD / Li Auto / Geely / XPeng / Leapmotor) is CLSA's universe. If the user wants a "five pure-play NEV names" cut, NIO would replace Geely — but we have no in-corpus CLSA TP/rating to populate the row. Flag if you'd like us to pull NIO from another source.

## 8. Summary Read-Across

- **Largest upside**: XPeng (+38%) and Geely (+35%) — both "value-rotation" candidates as the price war ebbs.
- **Highest conviction**: BYD and Geely carry the **HC** prefix.
- **Highest visible profitability**: Li Auto (priced on PE, not PS) and BYD (ROE 25–29%) — these are the two CLSA cites as "profitable EV makers" benchmarks [10].
- **Cheapest implied multiple**: Leapmotor at 1.0x 26CL PS (mid-cap, US$9.2bn) [16].
- **Largest absolute scale**: BYD dwarfs the field at US$144bn vs the rest combined ~US$78bn.

---

**Sources**

[1] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — China Auto (Weekly orders remain stable), CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — BYD snapshot
[2] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — Li Auto snapshot
[3] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — Geely snapshot
[4] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — XPeng snapshot
[5] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — CLSA, 25 Jun 2025 — Leapmotor snapshot
[6] 607962811LinqAlpha.PDF — BYD (Destocking initiated), CLSA, 26 Jun 2025 — 5-yr financials table
[7] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — BYD investment thesis
[8] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — Li Auto investment thesis
[9] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — Geely investment thesis
[10] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — Li Auto valuation methodology
[11] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — XPeng investment thesis & valuation
[12] 607962811LinqAlpha.PDF — BYD destocking / 2Q margin pressure
[13] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — NIO / weekly orders detail
[14] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — Leapmotor investment thesis
[15] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — Geely valuation (SoTP 8x ICE + 16x EV)
[16] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — Leapmotor valuation (1.0x 26CL PS)
[17] 607962719LinqAlpha.PDF — Leapmotor catalysts & risks

Analyst team (both notes): Xiao Feng, CFA (xiao.feng@clsa.com), Ding Luo, Orlando Hong, Jason Zhao.

