---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Consumer
status: done
latency_ms: 184735
conversation_id: 3e8cff52-741e-4755-bfc7-6fbae988c019
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 18:34:48Z
---

# How does Unilever Indo’s valuation compare to peers, and what justifies its premium/discount?

## Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) — Valuation vs Peers

**CLSA rating: HLD | TP Rp1,400 (-2% upside) | Mkt cap US$3.2bn | 95% foreign holding, 15% free float** [3]

UNVR trades at a **structural discount to its own history** (~-2SD below 5-year average PE [1]) and to **regional/global Unilever-franchise peers**, but at a **premium to most Indonesian domestic staples peers** on headline PE — a premium that CLSA argues is *not* well-supported by underlying growth.

---

### 1) Valuation snapshot — UNVR vs the peer set

**Indonesian domestic staples (CLSA, June 2025) [6]**

| Ticker | Company | PE 25F | PE 26F | EBIT mgn 25F | Sales gr 25F | EPS gr 25F | ROE 25F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **UNVR IJ** | **Unilever Indonesia** | **17.5x** | **16.2x** | **13.0%** | **1.0%** | **4.9%** | **109.2%** |
| MYOR IJ | Mayora Indah | 14.5x | 13.5x | 10.9% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 18.1% |
| SIDO IJ | Sido Muncul | 13.0x | 12.3x | 36.1% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 33.3% |
| ICBP IJ | Indofood CBP | 13.0x | 10.8x | 22.5% | 7.3% | 35.4% | 19.6% |
| INDF IJ | Indofood Sukses Makmur | 5.8x | 5.2x | 19.0% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 17.3% |
| CMRY IJ | Cisarua Mountain Dairy | 22.6x | 19.5x | 19.3% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 24.0% |
| **Domestic staples wtd avg** | | **13.6x** | **12.0x** | **18.9%** | **7.2%** | **18.3%** | **35.4%** |

UNVR trades at **a ~30% PE premium to the Indonesian staples weighted average** (17.5x vs 13.6x on 25F) yet delivers the **weakest top-line growth (1.0% vs 7.2% avg)** and **second-weakest EPS growth (4.9% vs 18.3% avg)** in the peer set [6].

**Regional Asian staples (CLSA, April 2025) [2]**

| Ticker | Company | PE 25F | PE 26F | EBIT mgn 25F | Sales gr 25F | ROE 25F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **UNVR IJ** | **Unilever Indonesia** | **15.4x** | **14.2x** | **13.0%** | **1.0%** | **109.2%** |
| HUVR IB | Hindustan Unilever (parent affiliate) | 58.1x | 52.4x | 20.1% | 2.3% | 19.2% |
| NEST IB | Nestle India | 70.3x | 61.3x | 20.4% | 3.3% | 93.9% |
| DABUR IS | Dabur | 47.4x | 41.0x | 15.4% | 2.2% | 18.2% |
| GCPL IB | Godrej Consumer | 62.3x | 50.5x | 18.5% | 2.8% | 15.9% |
| BRIT IS | Britannia | 60.5x | 51.6x | 15.9% | 6.9% | 57.1% |
| VBL IN | Varun Beverages | 56.4x | 45.2x | 18.9% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| NESZ MK | Nestle Malaysia | 41.5x | 39.4x | 11.8% | 4.0% | 78.9% |
| 4452 JP | Kao | 23.3x | 20.4x | 9.5% | 2.7% | 11.1% |
| 8113 JP | Unicharm | 23.3x | 20.0x | 14.9% | 7.3% | 12.7% |
| **Regional avg** | | **43.9x** | **38.3x** | **16.2%** | **5.3%** | **28.1%** |

Against the **regional staples set, UNVR's 15.4x sits ~65% below the regional average (43.9x)** — particularly stark vs Indian Unilever-franchise peers (HUVR 58x, NEST IB 70x, GCPL 62x, Dabur 47x) [2].

> Note: the April-2025 doc shows UNVR at 15.4x on price Rp1,425 [3][4]; the June-2025 sector update shows 17.5x reflecting a slightly higher share price — both are CLSA-house numbers from the same forecast set [2][6].

---

### 2) Why a DISCOUNT to its own history and to regional peers — justified

CLSA's target multiple is **15.5x, "slightly below -2SD of its historical five-year average"** [1]. The argument:

- **Transformation drag.** Management has only just completed price harmonization and customer stock reduction; brand-equity rebuild "would take several quarters." 1Q25 sales were still weak with negative volume growth [1].
- **Boycott / brand-perception overhang.** "The boycotting impact, though at a milder scale, is also another risk to its performance" [1].
- **Downtrading = brand switching, not just trade-down.** CLSA labels UNVR a **least-preferred name** because "downtrading trend also means brand switching. Home care is one of the most downtraded categories (less staples)" [7]. UNVR is the **only staple with negative aggregate HPC sales** in the recent CLSA channel-check survey [8].
- **Sell-in still contracting.** 2Q25E sales -10% QoQ / -5% YoY because "transformation strategy is still ongoing, affecting sell-in" [9].
- **Premium-positioned product mix is structurally vulnerable.** "A trading-down trend, given softer purchasing power, could hurt the company, as most of its products are priced at quite a premium vs peers" [5].
- **Cost structure exposure.** ~55-60% of COGS is USD-linked, so IDR weakness mechanically compresses margins; CPO and oil price swings add to it [5].
- **Intensifying competition.** Personal-care market share erosion is a stated risk [5].

CLSA flags UNVR (along with SIDO) as its **two least-preferred Indonesian consumer names** due to "the less essential nature of their product offerings" [7][8].

---

### 3) Why still a PREMIUM to most domestic peers — what supports the residual multiple

UNVR's 17.5x 25F PE sits **above MYOR (14.5x), SIDO (13.0x), ICBP (13.0x), and INDF (5.8x)** [6] despite the weakest growth profile. The premium leans on three legs:

- **Extreme capital efficiency / ROE.** ROE of **109.2% (25F)** [6] is roughly **3x the domestic staples average (35.4%)** [6] — a function of capital-light operations, near-100% earnings payout, and the resulting tiny equity base. ROE collapses to a "normalized" 88-96% only in CLSA's 26-27F as the equity base rebuilds [4].
- **High gross margin and FMCG dividend characteristics.** UNVR runs a **48.1% gross margin (25F)** [2], the highest in the Indonesia HPC/F&B set apart from SIDO, supporting an **8.3% trailing / 5.8% 25F dividend yield** [4].
- **Multinational franchise / brand portfolio.** Membership of the global Unilever group provides a partial floor relative to pure domestic peers — though even with that floor, CLSA's multiple is now applied below -2SD vs UNVR's own history [1].

By contrast, **Mayora's 19.5x target PE (~0.5SD below its 5-yr mean) is justified on stronger sales growth outlook**, and **AMRT's 30x (near 5-yr mean) on superior growth and ROE in a duopoly market** [10] — illustrating the framework CLSA uses to assign multiples within the same peer set.

---

### 4) Bottom line — premium/discount adjudication

| Comparison axis | UNVR vs… | Direction | CLSA's justification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own 5-yr history | -2SD discount [1] | **Discount** | Transformation drag, boycott risk, declining volumes, brand-equity rebuild incomplete |
| Indonesian domestic staples (PE) | +30% premium [6] | **Premium** | Supported only by extreme ROE / capital efficiency / dividend yield — NOT by growth |
| Regional Asian staples | -65% discount [2] | **Discount** | Indonesia-specific demand pressure + boycott overhang + sales contraction vs growing regional peers |
| Global Unilever franchise (HUVR, NEST IB) | -75% discount [2] | **Discount** | Indian Unilever-franchise peers earn structurally higher multiples on durable double-digit secular growth |

The current setup is best framed as: **a justified discount to history and to regional/global Unilever-franchise peers (transformation execution risk + boycott + premium-mix vulnerability to downtrading), partially offset by a still-unjustified premium to domestic Indonesian staples that rests on ROE / dividend optics rather than growth**. CLSA's Rp1,400 target offers ~-2% potential [3] and the rating sits at HLD — having de-rated from O-PF (mid-2022) through U-PF (2023-24) to current Hold [4].

**Re-rating catalysts (CLSA's stated bar):** any improvement in volume and sales would signal transformation success and could trigger a rerating; conversely continued share loss in personal care or further IDR weakness extends the discount [5].

---
**Sources**
[1] Unilever Indo - HLD (Holding steady) — CLSA, 24 Apr 2025 — 607956782LinqAlpha.PDF (Valuation details)
[2] Unilever Indo - HLD (Holding steady) — CLSA, 24 Apr 2025 — Regional peers consumer valuation table
[3] Unilever Indo - HLD (Holding steady) — CLSA, 24 Apr 2025 — Header: Reuters/Bloomberg, TP, mkt cap
[4] Unilever Indo - HLD (Holding steady) — CLSA, 24 Apr 2025 — Forecast financials table (23A-27CL)
[5] Unilever Indo - HLD (Holding steady) — CLSA, 24 Apr 2025 — Investment risks
[6] Indonesia consumer (Needs over wants) — CLSA, 12 Jun 2025 — 607961903LinqAlpha.PDF — Peer valuation table
[7] Indonesia consumer (Needs over wants) — CLSA, 12 Jun 2025 — Top picks and least preferred (Fig 22)
[8] Indonesia consumer (Needs over wants) — CLSA, 12 Jun 2025 — "Needs over wants" intro / HPC commentary
[9] Indonesia consumer (Needs over wants) — CLSA, 12 Jun 2025 — Sales growth preview 2Q25 (UNVR sell-in)
[10] Indonesia consumer (Needs over wants) — CLSA, 12 Jun 2025 — Mayora valuation details (multiple-setting framework)

