---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Telecoms
status: done
latency_ms: 195292
conversation_id: 9051e0b3-2dee-4fb5-a7e4-f0404fe8ddc0
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 19:56:51Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Telkom. If so, why?

**CLSA's stance on Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) — incrementally MIXED, with a clear pivot in tone vs. headline forecasts**

**Bottom line:** Rating has been held flat at **O-PF since June 2024**, but CLSA has progressively **cut the target price** over the past 12 months while simultaneously turning **incrementally more positive on the equity story** (cash returns, capex discipline, new leadership) and **incrementally more cautious on the earnings power** (forecast cuts, multiple compression).

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### Rating + Target Price Trajectory

| Date | Rating | TP (Rp) | Δ vs prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan 2024 | BUY | 5,000 | — |
| 27 Mar 2024 | **O-PF** (downgrade) | **4,100** | downgrade |
| 28 Jun 2024 | O-PF | 4,100 | unchanged |
| **28 Nov 2024** ("Eyeing a mean reversion") | O-PF | **3,500** | **–14.6%** |
| **22 Apr 2025** ("Returning cash") | O-PF | **2,900** | **–17.1%** |
| 19 Jun 2025 (latest weekly companies-mentioned) | O-PF | ~2,770 (current price) | — [7] |

Two TP cuts in six months and a –30% TP compression vs Nov 2024 explicitly signals **incrementally more cautious on absolute upside**.

---

### Why CLSA Got MORE NEGATIVE (forecast/valuation lever)

1. **NPAT forecast trimmed**: 25–26CL NPAT cut **4–6%** in the latest Apr-25 review. [2]
2. **Multiple de-rated**: Telkomsel target multiple in CLSA's SOTP cut from **13x PER to 11x**, the primary driver of the TP cut from Rp3,500 → Rp2,900. [2]
3. **Fundamentals soft**: 12M24 revenue grew just **+1% YoY**, EBITDA **–3% YoY**, core profit **–8% YoY**; 4Q24 EBITDA margin slipped to **48.7%** (vs 52% FY23). [3]
4. **Conservative 2025 guidance**: management guided **low-single-digit revenue growth**, 50–52% EBITDA margin — the baseline assumes **no meaningful data price hikes**. [3]
5. **Near-term ARPU headwind**: cheap starter packs (Rp35k for 3GB across Telkomsel, byU, XL, Indosat, Tri, Axis) will only clear by end-2Q25, implying **softer ARPU in the near term**; only **optical ARPU improvement in 2H25**. [9]
6. **Stock weakness**: 12M absolute return **–18.4%** (–9.2% relative to JCI) as of 21 Apr 2025.

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### Why CLSA Got MORE POSITIVE (cash-return / governance lever)

This is the key incremental shift — the **Apr-21-2025 note title itself ("Returning cash") signals the pivot to a cash-return narrative**:

1. **Lower capex intensity is the headline positive**: 2024 capex/sales came in at **16.3%** vs guided 22–23%; 2025 guidance lowered to **17–19% vs 23% in 2024**. CLSA explicitly labels this a "net positive" providing "scope for margin improvement." [4][1]
2. **Higher dividend payout flagged**: management indicated payout could exceed the prior **70–80% guidance**. Resulting dividend yield trajectory: **7.4% (24A) → 8.0% (25CL) → 8.6% (26CL) → 9.4% (27CL)**. [4][1]
3. **Rp3tn buyback program** in place, with the AGM (27 May 2025) approving an **Rp21tn dividend for FY24**. [2][8]
4. **Deleveraging**: net debt/equity falls from 27.3% (24A) → projected **19.6% (25CL) → 12.4% (26CL) → 5.8% (27CL)**.
5. **Telkomsel pricing stabilising**: 4Q24 ARPU **+2% QoQ**, subs **+1% QoQ** — "a relief to investors given pessimism due to price competition." [1][5]
6. **Industry-wide price hikes** (XL Sep-24, Indosat **+12% in Oct-24**, Telkomsel Nov/Dec-24; avg **9–12%**) — implicitly supportive. [9]
7. **New management — June 2025**: appointment of **Dian Siswarini (ex-XL Axiata CEO)** as President Director plus a near-complete BoD overhaul. CLSA comments the new BoD brings "notable industry professionals" and the dividend announcement is "boosting Telkom's stock as market optimism grows under the new leadership line-up." [8]
8. **MDI Ventures monetisation resuming**: US$60m in exits in 2025 after an 18-month lull; contributed **Rp483bn in unrealised gains** to TLKM in 2024 — a small but newly active value driver. [10]

---

### Synthesis — "Incrementally More Positive or Negative?"

**Both, on different vectors:**

- **On the underlying earnings power / valuation: incrementally MORE NEGATIVE** — two TP cuts (Rp4,100 → Rp3,500 → Rp2,900), 4–6% NPAT cuts, target multiple compressed from 13x to 11x, conservative top-line, lower-for-longer ARPU.
- **On the equity narrative / shareholder return: incrementally MORE POSITIVE** — explicit pivot to a "Returning cash" thesis (lower capex, higher dividend payout, buyback, deleveraging, ~8–9% yield), Telkomsel ARPU stabilising, and June 2025 leadership refresh adding optimism. CLSA's own phrasing: *"we maintain our Outperform rating on an appealing valuation and a good dividend yield"* and *"we expect near-term outperformance to continue on expectations of a higher dividend payout."* [1][2]

The unchanged O-PF rating since Jun-24 reflects this balance: CLSA is **not more bullish on the business**, but is **more constructive on the stock at the current price** as a yield/cash-return play.

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**Sources**
[1] Telkom – O-PF (Returning cash) — CLSA (21 Apr 2025) — 607956442LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] Telkom – O-PF (Returning cash) — CLSA (21 Apr 2025) — 607956442LinqAlpha.PDF, Forecasts & TP section
[3] Telkom – O-PF (Returning cash) — CLSA (21 Apr 2025) — 607956442LinqAlpha.PDF, 4Q24 results briefing
[4] Telkom – O-PF (Returning cash) — CLSA (21 Apr 2025) — 607956442LinqAlpha.PDF, Capex/dividend section
[5] Telkom – O-PF (Returning cash) — CLSA (21 Apr 2025) — 607956442LinqAlpha.PDF, 4Q24 ARPU detail
[6] Telkom – O-PF (Returning cash) — CLSA (21 Apr 2025) — 607956442LinqAlpha.PDF, Financials table
[7] Indonesia TMT (Weekly news and comments) — CLSA (19 Jun 2025) — 607962353LinqAlpha.PDF, TLKM recommendation history
[8] Indonesia TMT (Weekly news and comments) — CLSA (10 Jun 2025) — 607961627LinqAlpha.PDF, New CEO appointment
[9] Indonesia TMT (Weekly news and comments) — CLSA (10 Jun 2025) — 607961627LinqAlpha.PDF, Telco price check
[10] Indonesia TMT (Weekly news and comments) — CLSA (19 Jun 2025) — 607962353LinqAlpha.PDF, MDI Ventures comment

*Lead CLSA analysts on Indonesia TMT: Norman Choong (norman.choong@clsa.com) and Joshua Wijaya — Jakarta-based, CLSA parent (not CLST).*

