---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: 05 · Catalysts · risks
status: done
latency_ms: 272597
conversation_id: 522efb57-4dc4-4386-aacf-75a82d142af0
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 17:15:19Z
---

# Which of our APAC semi names has the highest event-risk-to-PT?

## APAC semis with highest event-risk-to-PT (per internal CLSA coverage)

**Top of the list: MediaTek (2454 TT) — Hold, PT NT$1,250** [1][2]. Coverage is by CLST (CLSA's Taiwan subsidiary, analyst Jason Tsang @cl-sec.com), not CLSA-parent [5].

Among the APAC semi names in the org's research library, MediaTek shows the cleanest concentration of binary event-risk relative to PT for three reasons:

1. **PT is anchored to a single binary customer event (Google TPU schedule).** "Delayed again" (11-Jun-2025) explicitly tied the PT to 18x 2H25-1H26CT EPS, with TPU revenue contribution pushed to 2H26 [1]. The earlier "Softer second half" note (27-May-2025) had already cut the PT from NT$1,350 → NT$1,250 [4] on the same TPU schedule [3 — see note below].
2. **Recurring delay pattern, each notch is quantified.** 2026 datacentre ASIC revenue was cut from US$2.4bn → US$1.6bn (-33%) and 2026 EPS by 4% on the most recent 1-2 month slip [1]. Tape-out has been pushed to Sep-Oct 2025 with mass production now expected 4Q26 — and CLST flags that **further postponement could leave MediaTek receiving only NRE fees** from Google rather than mass-production revenue [3].
3. **PT sits BELOW market.** ±% potential on the "Delayed again" report is **-5%** (priced 11-Jun-2025) [2] — i.e., the analyst already views risk-reward as negative even before resolving the next TPU milestone. By contrast, every other APAC semi in the org's library is rated O-PF/HC O-PF with positive PT upside (see table).

### How that compares to other APAC semi names CLSA covers in the library

| Ticker | Name | Rating | PT | ±% to mkt | Anchoring event(s) | Event-risk-to-PT character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2454 | MediaTek (CLST) | **Hold** | NT$1,250 | **-5%** [2] | Google TPU tape-out & mass-prod schedule [1][3] | **Negative skew; PT already below market and tied to binary single-customer event with recurring slips** |
| 005930 | Samsung Elec | O-PF | ₩73,000 | +22% [8] | HBM3E 12-Hi qualification at major customers; foundry losses [7] | Asymmetric upside — 2Q25 OP -10% vs consensus on qualification delays, but 0.9x P/B (10-yr avg 1.2x) cushions downside [7] |
| 000660 | SK Hynix | HC O-PF | ₩290,000 | +18% | Nvidia 2026 HBM negotiation (~70% of HBM ship) & ASIC customer wins for the remainder [9] | Already largely on-track per analyst; events skewed favourable |
| 042700 | Hanmi Semi | HC O-PF | ₩120,000 | +31% [12] | Remaining ~₩100bn TCB orders from SK Hynix split vs HanwhaVision [10] | Single-customer binary, but HC O-PF reflects high-conviction-positive outcome — concentrated event but skew positive |
| 6857 | Advantest | O-PF | ¥9,100 | n/a in retrieved chunks | SoC tester complexity / AI processor demand | PT *raised* recently — events skewed favourable |
| 6920 | Lasertec | HC O-PF | ¥24,900 | n/a in retrieved chunks | Aug FY3/25-27 full-year results; sub-2nm migration / ACTIS adoption | Upgrade from O-PF → HC O-PF — events skewed favourable |
| 3680 | Gudeng (CLST) | O-PF | NT$491 | n/a in retrieved chunks | EUV equipment ship slowdown / FOUP GPM | Already cut EPS 6%/9% for 25/26; PT *raised* on roll-forward — modest residual event-risk |

### Key call-outs

- **CLSA vs CLST.** MediaTek (and Gudeng, and broader Taiwan semi coverage) is published by CLST in Taipei (Jason Tsang) and is the entity whose call is reflected here [5]. Surface this if presenting "CLSA's APAC semi view" — the call on the highest-event-risk name comes from the Taiwan subsidiary, not CLSA-parent.
- **Runner-up framing.** If "event-risk" is interpreted as *upside-skewed binary catalyst* rather than *downside-skewed PT pressure*, **Hanmi Semiconductor (042700)** is the cleanest binary — the remaining ~₩100bn TCB order split with HanwhaVision is the single decisive event behind the +31% PT upside [10][12]. The case against Hanmi as #1 is that the analyst is HC O-PF (high-conviction positive resolution priced in), so it's a high-magnitude *catalyst* but not high event *risk* in the asymmetric sense.
- **Samsung's HBM3E 12-Hi qualification at NVIDIA** is arguably the largest single-event in absolute market-cap terms, but the 0.9x P/B valuation already prices the failure case, so event-risk-to-PT is asymmetric to the upside [7].

### Corpus vintage caveat (important)

The most recent CLSA APAC semi notes in the library are dated **May-June 2025** — roughly **11 months stale** vs today's date (31-May-2026). Almost every catalyst in the table above (HBM4 ramp, NVDA HBM4 negotiations, Google TPU tape-out, Hanmi/SK Hynix TCB final split, Samsung HBM3E 12-Hi qualification) has had a year to resolve. The "event-risk-to-PT" ranking is anchored to where each name stood at the most recent CLSA touch — it is NOT a current real-time view. If you want a refreshed read, the library would need newer notes synced.

---

**Bottom line:** Of the APAC semi names CLSA/CLST covers in the org's library, **MediaTek (2454 TT)** carries the highest event-risk-to-PT — Hold rating, PT below market (-5%), recurring downward EPS revisions on a single customer milestone (Google TPU), with explicit downside contingency (NRE-fees-only if mass production slips further) [1][2][3].

---

**Sources**
[1] MediaTek - HLD (Delayed again) — CLST/CLSA (11 Jun 2025) — 607961782LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] MediaTek - HLD (Delayed again) — TP/±% table — 607961782LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] MediaTek - HLD (Delayed again) — Google TPU tape-out & NRE-only risk — 607961782LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] MediaTek - HLD (Softer second half) — PT cut NT$1,350 → NT$1,250 — CLST/CLSA (27 May 2025) — 607960640LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] MediaTek (Softer second half) — CLST author block (Jason Tsang, @cl-sec.com) — 607960640LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] MediaTek (Softer second half) — TP/±% table — 607960640LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] Samsung Electronics - O-PF (Weak 2Q but valuation support) — HBM3E 12-Hi delay & 0.9x P/B — CLSA (11 Jun 2025) — 607961798LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] Samsung Electronics — TP ₩73,000 / +22% potential table — 607961798LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] SK Hynix - HC O-PF (Expecting another strong quarter) — NVDA 2026 HBM negotiation & ASIC customers — CLSA (19 Jun 2025) — 607962387LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] Hanmi Semiconductor - HC O-PF (Irreplaceable) — remaining ₩100bn TCB order split with HanwhaVision — CLSA (18 May 2025) — 607959765LinqAlpha.PDF
[11] (Hanmi reference reserved.)
[12] Hanmi Semiconductor — TP ₩120,000 / +31% potential table — 607959765LinqAlpha.PDF

