---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Materials
status: done
latency_ms: 360206
conversation_id: fde7914b-687a-42d8-95a2-d6b61aec98fa
citations: 9
created: 2026-05-31 19:40:23Z
---

# Provide a one‑year narrative of Press Metal, outlining how business performance, market conditions, and company actions shaped investor sentiment and valuation.

# Press Metal Aluminium Holdings (PMAH MK / 8869): One-Year Narrative

**Reference dates:** Today = 31 May 2026. "One-year window" runs 31 May 2025 → 31 May 2026.

**Source coverage caveat:** CLSA's internal coverage of Press Metal is dense up to **22 May 2025** (Khoo Zhen Ye's "Moving ahead on expansion" — last dedicated single-stock note in the corpus) and stops there. Post-1H25 colour relies on the company's own Bursa filings (interim and FY2025 annual reports) and news flow (StreetAccount). The narrative below stitches the two — the CLSA-built thesis at the start of the window, the company's execution against it, and the sell-side response by April 2026.

---

## 1. Where the story stood entering the window (May 2025)

Going into the one-year window, Press Metal was a year into a powerful re-rating. CLSA's Khoo had walked the rating ladder upward through FY24: 1Q24 NP > RM400m broke a two-year drought; 2Q24 set a record RM500m (+65% YoY) on average aluminium **ASP US$2,600/mt (+8% YoY)** plus a 223% jump in associate contributions [11], with 9M24 cumulative NP of **RM1.3bn (+47% YoY)** [7]. The thesis rested on four legs:

- **Aluminium up-cycle**: China supply cap, removal of the China export tax rebate, and renewable-energy demand keeping LME well-bid [7][5].
- **Vertical integration into alumina** via the 21.75% stake in Nanshan-controlled PT Bintan (HK Prime Aluminium Investment vehicle), with the planned listing easing capital pressure and lifting associate contributions over time [12].
- **Capacity growth**: the Bintulu Phase-3 smelter could expand **30% to 1.4m mt by 2027/2028** alongside the Baleh hydropower dam, with capex of RM1.2–1.3bn [4].
- **Margin uplift** from a value-added-product (VAP) sales mix targeted at 60% by end-2025 [11].

The setback in this build-up was the **9 September 2024 fire at Phase-3 Bintulu**, which knocked out 100 of 900 pots (c.9% capacity) and shaved an estimated **3–4% off FY24 output** [3]. CLSA cut FY24–26 EPS by 8% and lowered the TP from **RM6.90 → RM6.30** while keeping Outperform [2][3].

Post-fire, the rating arc turned positive again: aluminium prices rallied **+7% to US$2,650/mt** on China's late-September 2024 stimulus and the start of the Fed rate-cut cycle, which CLSA flagged as twin tailwinds [5]. By the **22 May 2025 anchor note** — the one CLSA piece sitting at the start of the user's one-year window — Khoo had:

- Logged **1Q25 NP of RM462m (+13% YoY)**, with the **P3 smelter fully restored in March 2025** [9].
- Confirmed Nanshan/PT Bintan **alumina capacity expansion from 2m → 3m tonnes by end-3Q25, then to 4m tonnes by end-3Q26** [10].
- Lifted FY25/26CL EPS by 4%/7%, introduced FY27, and **raised TP from RM6.30 → RM7.30** on 26× FY26CL PE (5-yr mean) [8].
- Held **O-PF** rather than Buy, reflecting valuation discipline at the new TP rather than thesis doubt.

So the entry point: a stock framed as a multi-year compounding story on aluminium tightness + alumina back-integration + capacity expansion, fully repaired from the September 2024 fire, with sell-side TP just lifted ~16%.

## 2. 1H 2025 execution (June – August 2025): mixed quality of earnings, narrative intact

Press Metal's own quarterly disclosure for **2Q25 (filed August 2025)** delivered a slightly noisier print than the CLSA setup implied:

| Metric | 2Q25 | 2Q24 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | RM4.19bn | RM3.95bn | **+5.9%** [14] |
| PBT | RM647.5m | RM693.8m | **−6.7%** [14] |
| Net profit (att.) | RM483.6m | RM505.8m | −4.4% [16] |
| EPS | 5.87 sen | 6.14 sen | −4.4% [16] |

**Top-line up, PBT down**: revenue grew on higher volumes and realised metal prices, but PBT was dragged by **higher raw-material costs consumed during the period** [14]. Sequentially, 2Q25 PBT improved 2.9% QoQ on **normalisation of raw material prices** [18], suggesting the alumina cost spike was rolling off — consistent with CLSA's expectation that easing alumina would re-emerge as a margin tailwind [7][10].

**1H25 aggregate**: Revenue +6.8% YoY, PBT +3.4% YoY, EPS 11.47 sen vs 11.09 sen [16][18]. Attributable profit RM945m vs RM914m — i.e. modest growth, well below CLSA's implied 2H25 acceleration.

**Capital structure moves during 1H25:**
- **March 2025: 5th Sukuk Wakalah issuance of RM1.5bn** (7/10/15-yr tranches) — funding capex, working capital and refinancing [17].
- **Capital commitments of RM1.7bn** in authorised PPE not yet provided for [15] — reads as the expansion roadmap (alumina + future Baleh-linked smelter [4]) moving from announcement to spend.
- **Total borrowings RM4.5bn** [15].
- **Dividends**: 4Q24 interim 1.75 sen (RM144m, paid Mar 2025) + 1Q25 interim 2.0 sen (RM164.8m, paid Jun 2025) + a **second interim 2.0 sen** for the FY ending Dec 2025 (book closure 11 Sep, payment 29 Sep 2025) [21] — a modest step-up in payout cadence.

**Management's own outlook in the 2Q25 filing** explicitly framed the second-half setup: **"Global aluminium supply constraints have supported metal prices, aided by fragile supply stability amid geopolitical risks. Furthermore, lower raw material prices are positive for our smelting operations"** — and signposted **renewables, AI and data centres** as demand drivers, while flagging US tariff uncertainty as the swing factor [15]. The Board's "satisfactory performance for FY 2025" line [15] was deliberately understated relative to CLSA's "stronger 2H25" call [8].

## 3. 2H 2025: thesis holds; quiet on the news tape

The corpus has no fresh CLSA dedicated note past May 2025, but the company's own FY2025 Integrated Annual Report (financial year ending **31 December 2025**) [20] confirms the platform was kept intact. Notable FY2025 ESG accolades disclosed include **The Edge Malaysia ESG Awards 2025 — Best of the Best Category, MSCI ESG Rating maintained at "AA", FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia 4-star, and TPI Management Quality upgraded from level 4 to level 5** [19]. For a name with growing institutional ownership through ESG-tilted funds, the maintained MSCI AA + Edge "Best of the Best" combination is non-trivial for the cost-of-capital story.

## 4. Investor sentiment & valuation: the April 2026 inflection

The most significant external recalibration in the back half of the year came on **26 April 2026**, when **JPMorgan upgraded Press Metal from Neutral to Overweight** at a then-share-price of **MYR 8.42** [1]. Read against CLSA's anchor TP of **RM7.30** set 11 months earlier [8], the market had blown through the sell-side mid-cycle valuation: the stock was trading **~15% above CLSA's TP** before JPMorgan upgraded — i.e., the share price did the rerating work that CLSA's incremental TP move only partially anticipated.

Corroborating sentiment markers in the broader news tape:

- Press Metal (BBG00H097488) appears repeatedly in StreetAccount's **Southeast Asia 52-week high/low** summary lists across **March, April and May 2026** [1 context: same publisher series] — consistent with a stock that ground higher through 1H26.
- The JPMorgan move from Neutral to Overweight at RM8.42 implies a forward-looking TP set above that level [1], aligning with what CLSA's framework would have implied as alumina expansion contributions (3m→4m mt at PT Bintan / Nanshan [10]) entered earnings.

## 5. What shaped sentiment — the causal chain

Pulling the threads together, four forces drove the one-year narrative:

1. **Commodity tape (positive, then mixed)**. Aluminium held above US$2,500/mt through 1Q25 [10] and the supply story (China cap, export tax rebate removal [7]) remained intact. The cost side was the swing — alumina prices spiked into late 2024 [11] but normalised through 1H25, visible in Press Metal's own QoQ PBT recovery [18].

2. **Plant-level execution (positive). ** The P3 fire was fully repaired by March 2025 [9]; smelters run at ~97% utilisation [c1726d34 — confirmed in plant tour]; 1H25 segmental smelting revenue of RM6.7bn out of RM8.1bn group revenue [chunk 7578032394507206268 — A8 segmental] confirmed the upstream engine was running as designed.

3. **Capacity & vertical integration (positive). ** The Nanshan/PT Bintan alumina expansion to 4m tonnes by 3Q26 [10] and the prospective Baleh-linked Bintulu Phase-4 smelter [4] gave investors a 2–3 year visible growth pipeline. The RM1.7bn of authorised-but-unspent PPE in the 2Q25 balance sheet [15] and the RM1.5bn Sukuk Wakalah [17] signalled active execution.

4. **Valuation (re-rating). ** CLSA's TP path went **RM6.90 (May 2024) → RM6.30 (Sept 2024 post-fire) → RM7.30 (May 2025)** [13][2][8]; the stock traded **RM8.42** by April 2026 [1]. JPMorgan's late-cycle upgrade [1] confirms the buy-side led the sell-side — the market re-priced first, the broker tags followed.

## 6. Open watch items as of 31 May 2026

- **US tariff path**. Management itself flagged this as the demand swing factor in the 2Q25 filing [15]; the lack of fresh CLSA notes leaves the corpus silent on how this played through.
- **Alumina ramp commissioning**. The 3m → 4m tonne Nanshan expansion was guided for end-3Q26 [10]; commissioning slippage would unwind a key part of the FY26/FY27 earnings step-up.
- **Stock vs new TP**. CLSA's anchor TP of RM7.30 [8] is materially below the current MYR 8.42 print [1]; an updated CLSA note would be the natural next sentiment marker.

---

**Sources**

[1] StreetAccount — "Press Metal Aluminium Holdings upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan (MYR 8.42, 0.00)" (26-Apr-2026)
[2][3][4] Press Metal — O-PF (Temporary operational hiccup) — CLSA (11-Sep-2024) — 607939402LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] Press Metal — O-PF (Tailwinds are blowing) — CLSA (7-Oct-2024) — 607940734LinqAlpha.PDF
[6][7] Press Metal — O-PF (Outlook remains bright) — CLSA (1-Dec-2024) — 607945803LinqAlpha.PDF
[8][9][10] Press Metal — O-PF (Moving ahead on expansion) — CLSA (22-May-2025) — 607960312LinqAlpha.PDF
[11][12][13] Press Metal — O-PF (A record quarter) — CLSA (29-Aug-2024) — 607938008LinqAlpha.PDF
[14][15][16][17][18][21] Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Berhad — Interim Report for period ended 30-Jun-2025 (Bursa filing)
[19][20] Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Berhad — Corporate Governance Report 2025 / Integrated Annual Report 2025

## Citations

- [1] **Press Metal Aluminium Holdings upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan (MYR 8.42, 0.00)** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4640918&_doc_date=2026-04-26&_doc_product=SA>
- [14] **Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd. (0H6MLL-E) - Interim Report for period end 30-Jun-2025 (English) - PDF - 2 / 2** · external
- [15] **Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd. (0H6MLL-E) - Interim Report for period end 30-Jun-2025 (English) - PDF - 2 / 2** · external
- [16] **Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd. (0H6MLL-E) - Interim Report for period end 30-Jun-2025 (English) - PDF - 2 / 2** · external
- [17] **Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd. (0H6MLL-E) - Interim Report for period end 30-Jun-2025 (English) - PDF - 2 / 2** · external
- [18] **Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd. (0H6MLL-E) - Interim Report for period end 30-Jun-2025 (English) - PDF - 2 / 2** · external
- [19] **Press Metal_CG Report 2025** · external
- [20] **Press Metal_CG Report 2025** · external
- [21] **Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd. (0H6MLL-E) - Interim Report for period end 30-Jun-2025 (English) - PDF - 2 / 2** · external

