---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Autos
status: done
latency_ms: 230008
conversation_id: 1f8afbb9-be20-468d-92e8-d329019b9ec7
citations: 15
created: 2026-05-31 21:31:44Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Kia. If so, why?

## CLSA on Kia (000270 KS) — Incrementally MORE POSITIVE since late 4Q24

**Short answer: Yes — CLSA has become incrementally more constructive on Kia since early 2025**, although the formal rating has remained **Outperform (O-PF)** throughout. The shift is most visible in (a) tone of conviction (from "range bound / Hold" on the broader HMC/Kia complex in late 2024 to a "counter-trend rally" thesis in 1H25), (b) framing the tariff drawdown as "buy the news," and (c) reiterating O-PF unchanged through a full coverage handover. As of the latest sync (CLSA's most recent Kia-naming notes in the corpus run to 16 May 2025; sector references through 29 Jun 2025), Kia carries **O-PF, TP ₩105,000 vs price ₩92,000 (+14% upside)** [1][2].

---

### Rating & target price — stability through a publishers' typical change-window

| Date | Note | Rating | TP (₩) | Price at note (₩) | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2024 | "Hyundai Motor – HLD (Likely to be range bound)" — sector tone cautious; HMC downgraded to **Hold** [6] | Kia O-PF (sector tone cautious) | — | — | Dohyoung Kim |
| 30 Jan 2025 | "Kia – O-PF (Double-digit OPM defended)" — 4Q24 review [10][11][12] | O-PF | 105,000 | — | Dohyoung Kim |
| 20 Feb 2025 | "Korea Autos (If not now, when?)" — HMC/Kia "priced to excess" [7][8][9] | O-PF | 105,000 | 94,500 (+11.1% upside) | Dohyoung Kim |
| 23 Mar 2025 | "Counter-trend rally pt.2" — reiterates O-PF on HMC & Kia [13][14] | O-PF | 105,000 | — | Dohyoung Kim |
| 1 Apr 2025 | "Warming up for a counter-trend rally" — Kia "buy the news" ahead of 2-Apr tariff [3][4][5] | O-PF | 105,000 | 93,200 (+12.7% upside) | Dohyoung Kim |
| 16 May 2025 | "Korea autos (Transfer of coverage)" — coverage moved to Brian Lee, **ratings unchanged** [1][2] | O-PF | 105,000 | 92,000 (+14% upside) | Brian Lee (new) |

Critically, when CLSA handed coverage from Dohyoung Kim to **Brian Lee** on 16 May 2025, the rating and target price were **maintained unchanged at O-PF / ₩105,000** despite the natural opportunity to recalibrate at a transition [1][2]. A new analyst preserving a predecessor's positive call is itself a constructive signal — it reaffirms the house view rather than soft-resetting it.

---

### Why CLSA is incrementally more positive — five drivers

**1. Defended double-digit OPM in 4Q24 — the bull-thesis anchor.** Kia delivered 10% OPM in 4Q24 even with a ₩420bn warranty FX translation loss, while global legacy OEMs are running mid-single-digits (5–7%) [10]. Management guides to 11% OPM in 2025 on a conservative ₩1,320/USD assumption — CLSA views the FX assumption as "offering ample upside" vs spot, which gives a cushion against tariff-related cost [11]. CLSA expressly: *"We maintain our Outperform rating for Kia with no change in our target price"* — citing Kia's "much better return profile along with xEV market share versus its global peers, its PE multiple at sub 5x [offering] good risk-reward… +6% dividend yield is a further buffer"* [12].

**2. Valuation has crossed the "PE-below-dividend-yield" line.** By Feb 2025, Kia's 1-yr fwd P/E had compressed to **4.6x** while dividend yield rose to **7.4%** — i.e., the market is paying a higher yield than the earnings multiple itself. This put Kia in cheaper territory than Stellantis, VW, GM, and Ford on PE while paying a yield only beaten by Daimler and Stellantis [9]. CLSA framed this as "multiples lower than their dividend yields and to a meaningful discount to peers… priced to an excess" [7].

**3. Tariff risk re-framed from "overhang" to "buy the news" catalyst.** In the 1 Apr 2025 note, CLSA argued the worst-case 25% US auto tariff was already in the price after a ~10% HMC/Kia drawdown, with a prolonged 25% tariff seen as "too detrimental to the industry" and likely to resolve at a lower rate — making 2 April a potential **"buy the news" event** [4]. The 23 Mar note reinforced that "the market typically bottoms once mind share for bearish sentiment peaks" and reiterated Outperform on HMC & Kia [13][14].

**4. Earnings forecasts already include a worst-case tariff scenario.** CLSA disclosed that "we baked-in a worst case scenario from US tariffs in November last year, which has our EPS at 20% below consensus. However, even on a tariff-risk adjusted PE, HKMC's multiple is at a 20%-25% discount to peers" [8]. This means CLSA's TP of ₩105,000 is already built on punitive tariff assumptions — limiting downside-revision risk and offering positive optionality if tariffs are resolved lower.

**5. Catalyst-rich 2H25 setup.** CLSA flags Kia's **CEO Investor Day in early April**, 1Q25 earnings, HMC Tech Day, the short-selling ban lifting, and the Korean impeachment situation as tailwinds biasing the market toward "undervalued blue chips" — explicitly naming HMC and Kia [4][14]. Eight new model launches in 2025 (BEV: EV4, EV5, PV5, Carens EV; ICE: Syros, Tasman) provide product-mix support to defend margins [11].

---

### Pulling apart "more positive" vs "stable"

| Dimension | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Headline rating | **Stable** (O-PF maintained) | Continuous since Jan 2025 through 16 May 2025 transfer [1][12] |
| Target price | **Stable** at ₩105,000 | Unchanged 30 Jan → 16 May 2025 [1][12] |
| Sector tone | **Improved** — from "range bound / Hold" on HMC in Oct 2024 to "counter-trend rally" in Feb–Apr 2025 | HMC HLD Oct 2024 [6] → HMC O-PF by Feb 2025 [9] |
| Valuation conviction | **Higher** — PE-below-DY framing, sub-5x PE, 6%+ yield | [7][9][12] |
| Tariff narrative | **Improved** — from open-ended risk to "priced-in / buy the news" | [4][8][13] |
| Analyst continuity | **Reaffirmed** at transfer | Brian Lee inherits O-PF / ₩105,000 unchanged [1][2] |

The "incremental positivity" is therefore best characterized as **a strengthening of conviction in the same call**, rather than a rating upgrade. The whole HMC+Kia complex (which is how CLSA frames "HKMC") moved from defensive ("Hold" / "range bound" on HMC in Oct 2024 [6]) to offensive ("counter-trend rally" / O-PF on both names by Mar–Apr 2025 [13][14]) — and Kia remained O-PF throughout, with the relative valuation case widening as the stock de-rated to PE < DY [9].

---

### Caveats

- **Corpus recency**: the most recent Kia-as-main-subject CLSA note in the RMS sync is dated **16 May 2025** [1]; references in the 29 Jun 2025 "Global Themes 2025 (Half-time review)" are sector-context only. Any view formed today should be confirmed against post-May 2025 publications.
- **HKMC framing**: CLSA's bull thesis is usually delivered jointly for HMC + Kia. The "incremental positivity" reading above leans on the joint thesis and Kia-specific notes; sector notes don't always discuss Kia stand-alone.
- **New analyst risk**: Brian Lee's first sole-authored deep-dive on Kia is not yet in the corpus — the 16 May transfer note is a coverage handover, not a re-initiation [2].

---

**Sources**
[1] Korea autos (Transfer of coverage) — CLSA (16 May 2025) — 607959723LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] Korea autos (Transfer of coverage) — CLSA (16 May 2025) — 607959723LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] Korea autos (Warming up for a counter-trend rally) — CLSA (1 Apr 2025) — 607954715LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] Korea autos (Warming up for a counter-trend rally) — CLSA (1 Apr 2025) — 607954715LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] Korea autos (Warming up for a counter-trend rally) — CLSA (1 Apr 2025) — 607954715LinqAlpha.PDF (Kia catalysts)
[6] Hyundai Motor – HLD (Likely to be range bound) — CLSA (24 Oct 2024) — 607941910LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] Korea Autos (If not now, when?) — CLSA (20 Feb 2025) — 607951218LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] Korea Autos (If not now, when?) — CLSA (20 Feb 2025) — 607951218LinqAlpha.PDF (tariff risk priced-in)
[9] Korea Autos (If not now, when?) — CLSA (20 Feb 2025) — 607951218LinqAlpha.PDF (peer P/E & yield table)
[10] Kia – O-PF (Double-digit OPM defended) — CLSA (30 Jan 2025) — 607949007LinqAlpha.PDF (4Q24 OPM)
[11] Kia – O-PF (Double-digit OPM defended) — CLSA (30 Jan 2025) — 607949007LinqAlpha.PDF (2025 guidance)
[12] Kia – O-PF (Double-digit OPM defended) — CLSA (30 Jan 2025) — 607949007LinqAlpha.PDF (Maintain O-PF)
[13] Korea autos (Counter-trend rally pt.2) — CLSA (23 Mar 2025) — 607953685LinqAlpha.PDF
[14] Korea autos (Counter-trend rally pt.2) — CLSA (23 Mar 2025) — 607953685LinqAlpha.PDF (Apr catalysts)
[15] Kia – O-PF (Double-digit OPM defended) — CLSA (30 Jan 2025) — 607949007LinqAlpha.PDF (financial summary)

## Citations

- [1] **607959723LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607959723LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607959723LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607959723LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607954715LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607954715LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607954715LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607954715LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607954715LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607954715LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607941910LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2024/10/607941910LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607951218LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/02/607951218LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607951218LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/02/607951218LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607951218LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/02/607951218LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [10] **607949007LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/01/607949007LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [11] **607949007LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/01/607949007LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [12] **607949007LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/01/607949007LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [13] **607953685LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607953685LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [14] **607953685LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607953685LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [15] **607949007LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/01/607949007LinqAlpha.PDF>

