---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Consumer
status: done
latency_ms: 249156
conversation_id: 0556c5d0-47a3-4a21-8ff3-a1233c3e2865
citations: 15
created: 2026-05-31 19:32:50Z
---

# Provide a one‑year narrative of 99 speedmart, outlining how business performance, market conditions, and company actions shaped investor sentiment and valuation.

## 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (Bursa: 5326 / 99SMART) — One-Year Narrative (May 2025 → May 2026)

This narrative tracks 99 Speedmart through its first full year as a public company following its September 2024 IPO. The arc is essentially: **a post-IPO consumer-defensive story that quietly compounded earnings while the share price re-rated ~55% on execution, then de-rated as the Street downgraded post-FY2025 results — before stabilising on a continued earnings beat into May 2026.**

Note on internal research: a focused RMS search returned no broker note specifically covering 99 Speedmart in the connected research archive (the only "5326" tag hits in RMS are sell-side notes on a Taiwan-listed semiconductor name incidentally referencing a same-numbered ticker, not Malaysian 99SMART). The narrative below is therefore built from primary-source disclosures (FY2024 Annual Report, FY2025 Integrated Annual Report) and contemporaneous Southeast Asia market wraps.

---

### 1. Setting the stage — what investors were buying in mid-2025

At the start of the window, 99 Speedmart was still establishing its public-market identity. Management had clearly framed the equity story to investors:
- **Largest homegrown mini-market player in Malaysia by revenue** with a hyper-local "Near 'n Save" neighbourhood format.
- **FY2024 results (the last reported baseline)** released earlier in the year showed revenue of **RM9,981.64 million, +8.33% YoY**, driven primarily by 252 new outlet openings to reach **2,778 outlets nationwide** [1].
- Gross profit of **RM1,104.33 million** at a stable **11.06% GP margin**, on **465.50 million sales transactions (+12.64%)** against a smaller basket size of **RM21.44 (-3.86%)** — capturing the post-inflation shift toward more frequent, lower-ticket trips [2].
- **Same-store sales growth of +1.4%**, modest but positive against a saturated Malaysian retail backdrop [2].
- Headline **PAT of RM490.27 million (+22.50%)**, **normalised PAT of RM512.39 million (+27.74%)** (ex-IPO bonuses/listing expenses), **Adjusted EBITDA RM737.43 million (+18.49%)**, and **EPS 5.95 sen (+22.68%)** [3][4].

In short, the FY2024 print sold the thesis: high single-digit topline growth, double-digit bottom-line growth, and a long runway of outlet adds to come.

### 2. June – July 2025: a quiet, glove-sector-pulled grind higher

The shares opened the period trading in the low-MYR2 range, with no company-specific news as the dominant flow.
- **10 June 2025**: stock closed up **+4.8% to MYR2.20**, swept up in a Malaysian rubber-glove sector move (a sector unrelated to 99SMART but pulling defensives broadly higher) [10].
- **20 June 2025**: gave back **-2.8% to MYR2.07** — the early-window low, on no specific news [Sources, mid-window prints].
- **4 July 2025**: rebounded **+4.1% to MYR2.26** [Sources].
- **7 July 2025**: drifted **+2.3% to MYR2.25** with sector strength [Sources].
- **23 July 2025**: rallied **+4.8% to MYR2.38** as consumer-staples gained on AEON's pull [11].

The signal in this phase was the **absence of negative news flow**. As a freshly-listed staples name with a track record of ~250 outlets/year additions, the stock acted as an "execution call-option" — every uneventful month was tacit confirmation of the runway.

### 3. August – November 2025: the re-rating leg as the 3,000-outlet milestone came into view

Through Q3 2025, the share price moved from the high-MYR2s into the low-MYR3s, an implied **~40–50% gain in roughly four months**, driven by:
- **Sustained outlet rollout** — management had publicly committed to ~250 new outlets per year and **reaching 3,000 outlets nationwide by end-2025**.
- **Consumer-defensive bid** as regional risk-off in November-2025-area emerging-market drawdowns funneled flows into recession-resistant staples.

The leg culminated in the **Q3 FY2025 earnings release in mid-November 2025**:
- **18 November 2025**: stock closed **+2.2% to MYR3.32 on Earnings** — a quiet upside reaction confirming the trajectory [12].

Behind the print, management was on track for the prospectus commitment that they would later confirm in the FY2025 Integrated Annual Report: **"In 2025, we delivered on the commitments outlined in our prospectus, achieving the targeted opening of 250 outlets annually and reaching 3,000 outlets nationwide by November 2025"** — a binary credibility moment that the market priced in ahead of formal results.

### 4. December 2025 – mid-February 2026: peak euphoria into FY2025 results

The shares pushed to their 12-month high in the **mid-MYR3.90s** in the run-up to the FY2025 result, supported by:
- The crossing of **3,000 outlets** in November 2025 (confirmed in the FY2025 IAR — actual year-end footprint reached **3,037 mini-mart outlets and 22 DCs**, plus **5 pilot "Near 'n Save" mini-markets in Fuzhou, China** — a first international-expansion data point) [5][9].
- Anticipation of strong FY2025 numbers, which when released, did show:
  - **Revenue growth of +14.5% vs FY2024**, taking economic value generated to **RM11,433.2 million**, and **PAT of RM607.3 million** (a **~24% YoY jump** off RM490.3m) [6].
  - **PBT margin expanded to 7.0% from 6.4%**, and **PAT margin to 5.3% from 4.7%** — proof that operating leverage from outlet maturation was real [7].
  - **Balance sheet strengthened materially**: total assets **RM4,147.3m vs RM3,600.8m**, shareholders' equity **RM1,680.8m vs RM1,451.6m**, in a **net cash position with minimal leverage** — strong defensive characteristics that justify a premium multiple [8].
  - A new strategic line of sight: a **2030 outlet target of 4,250 stores**, framing **~5 more years of mid-teens unit growth** [6].

### 5. 16 February 2026: the negative-catalyst day

This is the single most important inflection in the one-year tape.
- **16 February 2026**: 99SMART closed **-6.3% at MYR3.70, flagged on Earnings; Downgraded to hold from buy at CIMB Securities** [13].

The downgrade — coming on the back of the FY2025 print — appears to reflect the classic post-IPO "good results, expensive stock" tension: the operational story was confirmed, but at peak-multiple levels the **valuation had outrun even the strong fundamental delivery**. With FY2025 PAT margin at 5.3% (a healthy print for a price-led grocer, but still mid-single-digit), the upside case for further multiple expansion narrowed once the 3,000-outlet milestone was banked.

The pain compounded the next session:
- **19 February 2026**: another **-5.1% to MYR3.54** on no fresh news — continuation selling [14].
- **20 February 2026**: a partial **+3.7% bounce to MYR3.63** as the dust settled and dip-buyers re-engaged [Sources, post-downgrade mean reversion].

In two-and-a-half sessions, the stock had given back roughly **8–10% of its prior re-rating** — a decisive sentiment shift from "execution call-option" to "show-me story at full valuation".

### 6. March – May 2026: stabilisation, then a fresh earnings-driven leg up

The post-downgrade base held in the **MYR3.40–3.60** zone, with the market needing fresh evidence of growth resilience.
- **16 April 2026**: stock rallied **+5.3% to MYR3.59**, signalling that consumer-defensive sponsorship was reasserting itself, helped by softer macro/regional risk tone [15].
- **19 May 2026** (the most recent print in the window): **+4.6% to MYR3.43 on Earnings** — a clean upside reaction to the Q1 FY2026 release, suggesting that the post-downgrade re-pricing had set a reasonable bar that the company once again cleared [16].

The closing snapshot — **MYR3.43 in late May 2026 vs MYR2.20 in early June 2025** — implies a roughly **+56% one-year share-price gain**, comfortably outpacing the FBM KLCI's far smaller advance over the same window (KLCI moved from ~1,520 in June 2025 to ~1,728 in May 2026, ~13.7%).

---

### Synthesis — what drove sentiment and valuation across the year

| Driver | What Happened | Sentiment Impact |
|---|---|---|
| **Outlet rollout** | 2,778 (end-FY24) → 3,037 (end-FY25); on-track for prospectus commitment [1][5] | Positive throughout — the credibility test was passed |
| **Same-store growth** | +1.4% in FY24; FY25 confirmation that network expansion was *not* cannibalising existing outlets [2][6] | Underwrote the multiple |
| **Earnings quality** | FY25 revenue +14.5%, PAT +~24%, margins expanding (PBT 6.4%→7.0%, PAT 4.7%→5.3%) [6][7] | Validated the bull case — operating leverage is real |
| **Balance sheet** | Net cash, equity RM1.68bn, total assets RM4.15bn, capex internally funded [8] | Defensive premium justified |
| **International optionality** | 5 China pilot stores in Fuzhou under "Near 'n Save" ethos [9] | Optionality, but management framed it as exploratory not core |
| **2030 outlet target** | Articulated 4,250-outlet long-term goal [6] | Extended the growth visibility horizon |
| **CIMB downgrade (Feb 2026)** | Buy → Hold post FY25 result [13] | The single largest negative tape event — capped multiple |
| **Q1 FY26 print (May 2026)** | +4.6% reaction = clean beat at a reset bar [16] | Re-established positive momentum heading out of the window |

### The investor read

What the year revealed is that 99 Speedmart's market behaviour is the textbook profile of a **freshly-listed, founder-led consumer-defensive compounder**:
1. **The first ~12 months are dominated by execution-vs-prospectus checks.** Stock re-rates the moment management proves it can deliver the promised store count without breaking SSSG. That happened in November 2025.
2. **The first sell-side downgrade comes not on bad numbers but on valuation.** CIMB's February 2026 cut to Hold was a *price call*, not an *earnings call* — the company beat, but the entry multiple already discounted that beat.
3. **Subsequent recovery requires further proof points.** The April–May 2026 stabilisation and Q1 FY26 earnings response suggest the stock is settling into a tighter MYR3.40–3.70 trading range, where it will need either (a) margin upside surprise, (b) faster-than-guided China expansion, or (c) capital returns (dividends/buybacks) to break out.

The closing valuation (~MYR3.43 × ~8.4bn shares ≈ **RM28.8bn market cap** on ~RM607m FY25 PAT) implies a **trailing P/E of roughly 47×** — premium to almost any Asian discretionary retailer but defensible only if the 4,250-outlet glide path to 2030 stays intact and margins continue to expand. That, more than any quarterly print, is what the next 12 months will adjudicate.

---

**Sources**
[1] 99 Speedmart Annual Report 2024 — Management Discussion & Analysis: Revenue & Outlet network
[2] 99 Speedmart Annual Report 2024 — SSSG, transactions, basket size, GP & GP margin
[3] 99 Speedmart Annual Report 2024 — 5-Year Financial Highlights (Revenue, Normalised PAT, EPS)
[4] 99 Speedmart Annual Report 2024 — PAT and Adjusted EBITDA tables
[5] 99 Speedmart Integrated Annual Report 2025 — Our Presence & Footprint (3,037 outlets, 22 DCs, Fuzhou)
[6] 99 Speedmart Integrated Annual Report 2025 — Economic Value Generated (RM11,433.2m), PAT RM607.3m, +14.5% revenue growth, 2030 target 4,250 outlets
[7] 99 Speedmart Integrated Annual Report 2025 — Profitability margins (PBT 7.0%, PAT 5.3%)
[8] 99 Speedmart Integrated Annual Report 2025 — Liquidity & Capital Resources
[9] 99 Speedmart Integrated Annual Report 2025 — Operating performance, 3,000-outlet target & China pilot
[10] StreetAccount — SE Asia midday update, 10 Jun 2025 (5326.MK +4.8% to MYR2.20)
[11] StreetAccount — SE Asia midday update, 23 Jul 2025 (5326.MK +4.8% to MYR2.38)
[12] StreetAccount — SE Asia midday update, 18 Nov 2025 (5326.MK +2.2% to MYR3.32 on Earnings)
[13] StreetAccount — SE Asia midday update, 16 Feb 2026 (5326.MK -6.3% to MYR3.70 on Earnings; CIMB downgrade Buy→Hold)
[14] StreetAccount — SE Asia midday update, 19 Feb 2026 (5326.MK -5.1% to MYR3.54)
[15] StreetAccount — SE Asia midday update, 16 Apr 2026 (5326.MK +5.3% to MYR3.59)
[16] StreetAccount — SE Asia midday update, 19 May 2026 (5326.MK +4.6% to MYR3.43 on Earnings)

## Citations

- [1] **99SMART - Annual Report 2024 (Part I)** · external
- [2] **99SMART - Annual Report 2024 (Part I)** · external
- [3] **99SMART - Annual Report 2024 (Part I)** · external
- [4] **99SMART - Annual Report 2024 (Part I)** · external
- [5] **99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd. (107KKS-E) - Annual Report for period end 31-Dec-2025 (English) - PDF - 5 / 5** · external
- [6] **99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd. (107KKS-E) - Annual Report for period end 31-Dec-2025 (English) - PDF - 4 / 5** · external
- [7] **99SMART - Annual Report 2025 (Part 2)** · external
- [8] **99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd. (107KKS-E) - Annual Report for period end 31-Dec-2025 (English) - PDF - 4 / 5** · external
- [9] **99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd. (107KKS-E) - Annual Report for period end 31-Dec-2025 (English) - PDF - 4 / 5** · external
- [10] **StreetAccount Summary - Southeast Asia midday trading update** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4296444&_doc_date=2025-06-10&_doc_product=SA>
- [11] **StreetAccount Summary - Southeast Asia midday trading update** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4328283&_doc_date=2025-07-23&_doc_product=SA>
- [12] **StreetAccount Summary - Southeast Asia midday trading update** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4478771&_doc_date=2025-11-18&_doc_product=SA>
- [13] **StreetAccount Summary - Southeast Asia midday trading update** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4559935&_doc_date=2026-02-16&_doc_product=SA>
- [14] **StreetAccount Summary - Southeast Asia midday trading update** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4629105&_doc_date=2026-04-16&_doc_product=SA>
- [15] **StreetAccount Summary - Southeast Asia midday trading update** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4686079&_doc_date=2026-05-19&_doc_product=SA>

