---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Capital Goods
status: done
latency_ms: 227513
conversation_id: 78a4df3b-c7bb-4c00-a855-52c16d5b695e
citations: 17
created: 2026-05-31 21:35:34Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Doosan Enerbility. If so, why?

## CLSA's stance on Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) — directional read

**Short answer**: Most recent action is **incrementally LESS positive** — analyst Steve Chung **downgraded** the rating one notch from **High-Conviction Outperform (HC O-PF) back to Outperform (O-PF)** in the 27 May 2025 note. However, this is a **valuation/price-action downgrade, not a thesis downgrade** — the target price was simultaneously **lifted ~38%** (from ₩34,000 to ₩47,000) and the fundamental nuclear-power outlook was reiterated as positive. The downgrade essentially says "we still like the story, but the stock has run ahead of it."

> **Corpus recency caveat**: CLSA's latest dedicated Doosan Enerbility note in our archive is dated **27 May 2025** — there is no later coverage in scope. Conclusions below are anchored to that vintage, not to today's date (31 May 2026).

---

### CLSA's rating arc on 034020 (last 6 months of coverage)

| Date | Title | Rating | TP | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2024 | The global nuclear foundry | O-PF | ₩34,000 | Initiation-style positive |
| 11 Dec 2024 | Back to where it belongs | O-PF | ₩34,000 | Maintain |
| 02 Jan 2025 | More customers are coming in | O-PF | ₩34,000 | Maintain |
| 17 Feb 2025 | ₩36tn backlog in 2029 | O-PF | ₩34,000 | Maintain |
| **04 Mar 2025** | **Bound to grow; upgrade to HC O-PF** | **O-PF → HC O-PF** | ₩34,000 | **↑ Incrementally more positive** [9][10][11] |
| 07 Apr 2025 | Sanity check | HC O-PF | ₩34,000 | Maintain (sanity check on risks) [12][13] |
| 01 May 2025 | One step back for two steps forward | HC O-PF | ₩34,000 | Maintain through 1Q25 miss [14][15][16][17] |
| **27 May 2025** | **Half nuclear half amazing** | **HC O-PF → O-PF** | **₩34,000 → ₩47,000** | **↓ Incrementally less bullish on rating; ↑ more positive on TP** [1][2][3] |

Lead analyst on all notes: **Steve Chung, CFA** (Seoul, `steve.chung@clsa.com`) — confirms this is **CLSA-parent coverage**, not CLST. Co-analyst Junyoung Park.

---

### Why the May 27 downgrade — the "less positive" read

**1. Price action has eaten the thesis.** The stock returned **+127.3% over 12M and +48.7% in the past month alone** going into the note (+50.4% over 3M) [3]. CLSA explicitly frames the rating cut as "on price action":

> "We lift our target price from ₩34,000 to ₩47,000 as we decided to use a three-year forward backlog from two years as the major earnings improvement from nuclear power orders will start in 2028. We remain positive on Doosan Enerbility but we downgrade our rating a notch, from HC O-PF to O-PF, on price action." [2]

The new ₩47,000 TP implies only **+13% upside** from the priced-in level [8] — too thin to justify a high-conviction call even though the fundamental story is unchanged.

**2. The macro tailwind is doing the work.** CLSA attributes the rally to positive global nuclear news flow (Germany/Sweden/US restart momentum), not Doosan-specific delivery. Notably, the stock rallied **despite** a 1Q25 miss and Czech contract delays:

> "Doosan Enerbility has rallied 127.3% over the past year (48.7% the past month) we believe mainly because positive news flows on nuclear power expansion in Germany, Sweden and the US. This was a stronger than expected move despite some delays in the Czech Republic contract and disappointing 1Q25 numbers." [4]

**3. Market already pricing in the US gas-turbine optionality.** CLSA flags that catalyst as already partially discounted:

> "Doosan Enerbility seems to be actively discussing US gas turbine business with multiple potential customers... We believe the market started to price-in this potential judging by the recent rally." [6]

---

### Why CLSA is still positive (the "for two steps forward" framing)

The thesis underpinning the **earlier March upgrade** to HC O-PF — and which remains intact in the May 27 downgrade — rests on three operational catalysts:

**a) Nuclear-power backlog ramp.** CLSA's March upgrade math:

> "Nuclear power business backlog should increase from ₩5.7tn in 2024 to over ₩20tn (57.1% of total backlog target ₩36.1tn) by 2029... earnings contribution from nuclear could be close to half of the 2029 parent OP target (₩1tn)." [10]

> "Nuclear power business backlog should increase over ₩20tn in 2029 from ₩5.7tn in 2024... As a result, parent OP could quadruple to ₩1tn in 2029. Enhanced fiduciary duty will lead to prevention of controversial restructuring by Doosan group." [9]

**b) Pipeline of orders still confirming.** From the May 27 update on order delivery:

> "Doosan already received an order for long lead materials for 12 SMR modules and still expects to see the following main equipment orders and additional long lead material for six modules in 2025... The midterm order target from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Korea SMR and Westing House (either from Poland or Bulgaria) remain unchanged." [5]

The Czech contract was officially confirmed on 30 April 2025 (KHNP awarded; total project size ~₩26tn; Doosan's allocation guided at ₩3.8tn but possibly higher) [15] — removing a key overhang flagged in the April "Sanity check" note [12].

**c) US gas turbine + SMR optionality.** Doosan is "discussing supplying 10 gas turbines (circa 8GW) to multiple US datacentre developers" and is expanding SMR capacity beyond the current 12 modules at Changwon [16].

---

### Risk acknowledgments CLSA has progressively folded in

- **1Q25 miss (May 1 note)**: OP ₩142bn missed consensus by **-45.6%**, with parent business posting an OP **loss of -₩1bn** from a Vietnam coal-power project. Net debt rose from ₩2.6tn (4Q24) to ₩3.3tn (1Q25) on working capital build [14]. CLSA cut net profit estimates by **16.5% / 9.5%** for 25CL/26CL but kept TP and rating [17].
- **US tariff/Trump risk (April "Sanity check")**: Parent business has no meaningful US exposure; main upcoming orders are Middle East / Europe / Korea. Bobcat (>70% US revenue) absorbs the tariff risk on consolidated basis [7].
- **Domestic policy risk**: Opposition party (likely next gov't post-Yoon impeachment) judged less hostile than Moon-era — even more supportive of SMRs [13].

---

### Earnings forecast trajectory (CLSA estimates)

| ₩bn | 23A | 24A | 25CL | 26CL | 27CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17,590 | 16,233 | **16,161** | **17,938** | **19,019** [7] |
| Net profit (May 27) | 56 | 111 | **453** | **640** | **752** [7] |
| Net profit (Apr 7, pre-1Q25 cut) | 56 | 111 | 543 | 707 | 810 |
| EPS (₩, May 27) | 87 | 174 | **710** | **1,003** | **1,178** [7] |
| ROE % (May 27) | 0.8 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 9.8 [7] |
| PE (x) | 476.5 | 237.9 | 58.4 | 41.4 | 35.2 [7] |

Net-profit estimates were cut twice in three months (April: -6.7%/-2.5%; May: -16.5%/-9.5%) — i.e., **CLSA has become incrementally more cautious on near-term earnings** while the **long-dated nuclear-backlog thesis stayed intact**, justifying the TP raise via methodology change (shifting from 2yr to 3yr forward backlog in the EV/backlog framework) [2].

---

### Bottom line — directional summary

| Dimension | Direction over the last 6 months |
|---|---|
| **Rating** | Net positive then net negative → ended **one notch lower** (HC O-PF → O-PF) [1] |
| **Target price** | **+38%** (₩34,000 → ₩47,000) [2] |
| **Near-term earnings (25-26CL NP)** | **Twice cut** by cumulatively ~22% / ~12% [13][17] |
| **Long-term thesis (2029 ₩1tn parent OP, 57% nuclear backlog)** | **Reiterated** [9][10][16] |
| **Implied upside from new TP** | **+13%** only [8] — narrow margin for a HC call |

CLSA's most recent action is therefore **incrementally less positive at the rating/conviction level** (downgrade from HC O-PF to O-PF), driven entirely by **the stock's 127% 12-month rally outpacing the still-positive fundamental thesis** — not by any thesis impairment. The TP raise to ₩47,000 and the maintained 2029 backlog/OP roadmap show CLSA remains constructive operationally; they simply view the risk/reward as no longer high-conviction at the post-rally price.

---

**Sources**
[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Doosan Enerbility - O-PF (Half nuclear half amazing) — CLSA (27 May 2025) — 607960659LinqAlpha.PDF
[9][10][11] Doosan Enerbility - HC O-PF (Bound to grow; upgrade to HC O-PF) — CLSA (4 Mar 2025) — 607952142LinqAlpha.PDF
[12][13] Doosan Enerbility - HC O-PF (Sanity check) — CLSA (7 Apr 2025) — 607955198LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] Doosan Enerbility - HC O-PF (Sanity check) — CLSA (7 Apr 2025) — 607955198LinqAlpha.PDF (US-exposure paragraph)
[14][15][16][17] Doosan Enerbility - HC O-PF (One step back for two steps forward) — CLSA (1 May 2025) — 607957818LinqAlpha.PDF

## Citations

- [1] **607960659LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960659LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607960659LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960659LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607960659LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960659LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607960659LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960659LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607960659LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960659LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607960659LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960659LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607960659LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960659LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607960659LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960659LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607952142LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607952142LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [10] **607952142LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607952142LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [11] **607952142LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607952142LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [12] **607955198LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607955198LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [13] **607955198LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607955198LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [14] **607957818LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607957818LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [15] **607957818LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607957818LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [16] **607957818LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607957818LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [17] **607957818LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607957818LinqAlpha.PDF>

