---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: 01 · Coverage lookup
status: done
latency_ms: 190842
conversation_id: 0e70f605-e797-4044-868c-bdf4ba09fa13
citations: 0
created: 2026-05-31 16:46:38Z
---

# What is Elinor Leung recommending to clients right now?

**Elinor Leung — CLSA Head of China Internet Research (latest recommendations)**

*Caveat on dating: the latest CLSA notes by Elinor Leung in the workspace are dated through end-June 2025. The "now" answer below reflects her positioning as of that sync — the corpus does not contain notes published after 30 June 2025, so any rating/TP revisions after that date are outside scope.*

## Top picks — High-Conviction Outperform (HC O-PF)

Her core call across the 2025 internet tour (9 Apr 2025) and reiterated in subsequent notes is that **Tencent, Xiaomi and Alibaba** are the three names to own — they remain "HC O-PF" (the highest conviction tier at CLSA). The thesis is built around accelerating AI adoption following DeepSeek, +20% YoY cloud revenue growth resuming, and "Cloud+LLM" service providers prevailing [1].

| Stock | Ticker | Rating | Price (at note) | Target | Upside | Note date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Tencent** | 700 HK | HC O-PF | HK$441.2 | **HK$645** | +46.2% | 9 Apr 2025 [2] |
| **Xiaomi** | 1810 HK | HC O-PF | HK$41.90 → revisited HK$57 (26 Jun) | **HK$69.00** | +64.7% → +21% | 9 Apr → reiterated 27 Jun 2025 [3][11] |
| **Alibaba** | BABA US | HC O-PF | US$104.8 → US$112.3 | **US$165.00** | +57% → +47% | 9 Apr / 16 Apr 2025 [4][7] |

- **Xiaomi**: latest catalyst is the **YU7 EV launch**, which she flagged as a "huge success" with exceptional early order volumes and higher-than-expected ASPs — implying upside to 2025/26 delivery and gross margins. TP HK$69 reiterated on the 27 June 2025 note [11].
- **Alibaba**: dual conviction — AI/cloud (post-AliCloud AI conference, she views Alibaba as the best China cloud play with leading market share, technology and application scenarios; expects China cloud revenue to resume +20% CAGR) **plus** lower ADR delisting risk given dual-primary HK listing.
- **Tencent**: AI + content monetisation, with TP HK$645.

## Also "likes" — standard Outperform

Beyond the three HC names, she recommends a second tier of O-PF names she explicitly called out as preferred among the 18 companies hosted on her China Internet tour:

| Stock | Ticker | Rating | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Trip.com** | TCOM US | O-PF | **US$71.50** | +30.5% [5] |
| **NetEase** | NTES US | O-PF | **US$120.00** | +28% [6] |
| **Didi** | DIDIY US | O-PF | n/a in table | (tour pick) [1] |
| **Meituan** | 3690 HK | O-PF | **HK$217.00** | +60.9% [7] |
| **Baidu** | BIDU US | O-PF | **US$120.00** | +41.9% [8] |
| **PDD** | PDD US | O-PF | **US$150.40** | +59.9% [9] |

Caveat on Meituan and PDD: in her 16 Apr "Heating up" note she warned both could see near-term margin / share-price pressure from JD's food-delivery push (5m daily orders, faster than expected) and from the ~Rmb100bn three-year support programmes each platform unveiled for tariff-hit exporters. Rated O-PF but flagged as having near-term overhangs [8][9].

## "Hold" — avoid

- **Vipshop (VIPS US)** — HLD, TP **US$15.00** (-1% to spot). In her 30 June 2025 1Q25 preview, she sees a milder, more SVIP-driven recovery, forecasts -4% YoY revenue with adj NPM stable at ~8.2%, and keeps full-year numbers unchanged. Buybacks accelerating but not enough to upgrade the rating [10].

## Key thematic overlays clients should know

1. **DeepSeek / AI adoption**: she has repeatedly argued post-DeepSeek that cloud + LLM providers will be the structural winners, with rapidly falling inference cost driving AI app adoption across internet, financial and EV firms — Alibaba (cloud), Tencent (AI + content) and Xiaomi (AI hardware/EV) are the cleanest plays [1].

2. **ADR delisting risk** (21 Apr 2025): she explicitly bucketed her coverage by risk. **Highest risk** (no HK listing): PDD, Vipshop, JOYY, iQiYi, Huya — could see 40-50% share correction in a forced-sale worst case. **Lower risk** (dual primary HK + US listing): Alibaba, Bilibili, Kanzhun, Kingsoft Cloud, Zhihu, Baozun. This argues for tilting US-listed China internet exposure toward the dual-listed names.

3. **Tariff-war positioning**: in her 20 Apr "How to navigate the trade war 2.0" piece, she steered clients to focus on "what will not change" — short-term China stimulus is likely to be sector-specific (services, real estate, foreign trade) rather than comprehensive; expect more "DeepSeek moments" to revive tech confidence.

4. **Domestic competition watch-out**: JD's accelerating food-delivery push (5m daily orders) is squeezing Meituan; PDD/JD/Meituan each pledging Rmb100bn+ over three years to support exporters and capture domestic consumption — incremental spend will likely pressure near-term margins for the platforms even while she remains constructive longer term [8].

## Bottom line

If a client asks "what's Elinor pushing right now": **Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba as the core HC O-PF triplet**, with Trip.com, NetEase, Didi, Meituan, Baidu and PDD as the supporting O-PF cast, Vipshop on Hold. The AI / cloud thesis is the dominant overlay, with ADR delisting risk and JD's food-delivery aggression as the two tactical risks to manage.

---
**Sources**

[1] *Internet tour: Accelerated AI adoption* — CLSA (9 Apr 2025) — 607955430LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] *Internet tour — Tencent rating/TP table* — CLSA (9 Apr 2025) — 607955430LinqAlpha.PDF
[3] *Internet tour — Xiaomi rating/TP table* — CLSA (9 Apr 2025) — 607955430LinqAlpha.PDF
[4] *Internet tour — Alibaba rating/TP table* — CLSA (9 Apr 2025) — 607955430LinqAlpha.PDF
[5] *Internet tour — Trip.com rating/TP table* — CLSA (9 Apr 2025) — 607955430LinqAlpha.PDF
[6] *Internet tour — NetEase rating/TP table* — CLSA (9 Apr 2025) — 607955430LinqAlpha.PDF
[7] *Heating up — Alibaba rating/TP table* — CLSA (16 Apr 2025) — 607956119LinqAlpha.PDF
[8] *Heating up — Baidu rating/TP table & Meituan call* — CLSA (16 Apr 2025) — 607956119LinqAlpha.PDF
[9] *Heating up — PDD rating/TP table* — CLSA (16 Apr 2025) — 607956119LinqAlpha.PDF
[10] *Vipshop — HLD (1Q25 preview)* — CLSA (30 Jun 2025) — 607963044LinqAlpha.PDF
[11] *Xiaomi — HC O-PF (Xiaomi YU7 is a huge success)* — CLSA (27 Jun 2025) — 607962933LinqAlpha.PDF

