---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Telecoms
status: done
latency_ms: 328098
conversation_id: de310722-520f-4450-9c1a-49e3e571c7e6
citations: 17
created: 2026-05-31 18:51:21Z
---

# Provide a one‑year narrative of Softbank Group, outlining how business performance, market conditions, and company actions shaped investor sentiment and valuation.

# SoftBank Group (9984 JP): One‑Year Narrative — Jun 2025 to May 2026

Over the past twelve months SoftBank Group transformed from a complicated, deeply discounted holding company into the most aggressive listed proxy on the global Artificial General/Super‑Intelligence trade. The story moved through three distinct phases: (1) **the "ASI pivot"** at the AGM/JF25 in mid‑2025, anchored by the $40bn OpenAI commitment and the Stargate infrastructure plan; (2) **a balance‑sheet repositioning** through aggressive asset monetisation (T‑Mobile, NVIDIA, Arm margin loan upsizing) to fund the OpenAI cash calls; and (3) **a record print and ratings/strategic catch‑up** in calendar Q2 2026, followed by the first cracks of "AI capex‑binge" concern at the end of the period.

The CLSA archive in this workspace runs to **27 June 2025** — public news, filings and presentations carry the narrative from late 2025 into May 2026. Where the CLSA "anchor" view ends (HC Outperform, SOTP target ¥10,749 in June 2025 [23]), public data confirms the thesis has largely played out: shares set an all‑time intraday high of **¥27,695 on 29 October 2025** [3], SoftBank reported **FY net income attributable of ¥5.002T vs the FactSet consensus of ¥3.557T** in May 2026 [5], and Nomura upgraded the stock to Buy in April 2026 [9].

---

## 1. Phase 1 (Jun 2025): "ASI by 2030" — the strategic reset

At the June 2025 AGM, founder **Masayoshi Son outlined a vision for Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) and for Softbank to become the leading platform for ASI by 2030**, also noting that "OpenAI could become the world's most valuable company" [25]. CLSA's Oliver Matthew described the share‑price recovery in the prior month as driven by two strands — Arm and "the investment in OpenAI is getting some new attention" [25] — and maintained High‑Conviction Outperform.

The same month, CFO **Yoshimitsu Goto** used the JF25 keynote to detail the AI strategy: OpenAI follow‑on investment, the Stargate infrastructure JV, the Cristal Intelligence enterprise platform, and an evolving SVF strategy [27]. CLSA called the stock "**massively discounted despite offering rising AI exposure**" with the discount‑to‑NAV running at roughly 60% [27]. Cristal Intelligence — positioned as a corporate alternative to ChatGPT — targets **US$3bn in initial annualised revenue** with SoftBank as anchor user via a JV with OpenAI [26].

The Stargate infrastructure plan was specified as a **US$500bn project with 20–25% of the budget potentially allocated in year one**, with feasibility studies across 100+ US sites, Texas as the likely first datacentre cluster, and an energy strategy mixing renewables with bundled deals with state governments and existing power plants [19].

## 2. Phase 2 (Apr–Sep 2025): The $40bn OpenAI commitment and asset monetisation

The transformative capital event was the OpenAI follow‑on. On **31 March 2025 SoftBank agreed to invest up to US$40bn in OpenAI Global**, of which **US$30bn is SBG's effective net exposure (after a US$10bn syndication to outside investors)**, structured to support Stargate compute and to capture OpenAI's growth in SBG's NAV [1]. The first closing of US$10bn (US$2.5bn syndicated, US$7.5bn via SVF2) occurred in April 2025; the full US$10bn outside syndication was committed by 30 September 2025 [1].

CLSA's June Vision Fund update reframed OpenAI's investment math: a **US$260bn pre‑money valuation, with revenue projected to scale from US$4bn (2022) to roughly US$26bn (2026)** — about a 10x revenue multiple, well below comparable AI peers (Anthropic ~30x NTM, Hugging Face ~90x). Post‑recapitalisation, **SoftBank ownership of OpenAI was estimated at c.12.3% assuming a US$30bn total investment** [20].

CLSA's June 13 "If OpenAI is worth US$1tn…" note was the sentiment turning point. The argument: if OpenAI re‑rates to US$1tn, **Softbank's 12% stake would be worth US$120bn; net of 18% SVF2 minority interests and a 0–30% discount, this implies US$39–69bn (48–84% of then‑market cap)** for SBG shareholders [23]. Crucially, the CLSA target price of ¥10,749 at the time **assumed only US$1.5bn in OpenAI**, leaving substantial upward bias as the marks were finalised [23]. Downside scenario: if OpenAI were a "loser", CLSA framed the risk at roughly 15% [E above; chunk index 8 of 607961957].

To finance the cash calls and AI infrastructure build‑out, SoftBank executed an unprecedented monetisation programme through H1 FY2025 (Apr–Sep 2025):

- **T‑Mobile**: 40.2M shares sold for US$9.2B [3]
- **NVIDIA**: entire holding (32.1M shares) sold for US$5.8B in October 2025 [3]
- **Deutsche Telekom collar settlement + partial sale**: generated US$2.4B [3]
- **Arm margin loan upsized to US$20.0B in November 2025 from US$13.5B, with US$11.5B undrawn** [3]
- **Arm sell‑down by SVF to SBG**: initially invested US$8.2bn, sold 25% to SBG for US$16.4bn (≈2x return), with the final US$4.1bn tranche scheduled for August 2025; proceeds used to pay down SVF preference shares (US$5bn outstanding then), after which 50% of future gains flow back to SBG rather than servicing the 7% preference coupon [21]

The Q2 FY2025 (Jul–Sep 2025) print delivered the proof point: a **total Q2 investment gain of US$14.6B** in the SVF segment, dominated by the OpenAI fair‑value mark [2]. NAV rose to **¥33.3T at Sep 30, 2025 (+¥0.9T QoQ), LTV improved to 16.5% (–0.6ppt QoQ), and cash position rose to ¥4.2T (+¥0.6T QoQ)** [3]. The October share price closed at ¥27,315 on October 29, with an intraday all‑time high of ¥27,695 the same day [3].

## 3. Phase 3 (Apr–May 2026): Record results, strategic build‑out, first cracks of doubt

**Earnings — the record print (13 May 2026).** SoftBank reported **FY net income attributable of ¥5.002T vs a FactSet consensus of ¥3.557T (range ¥2.36–5.26T across 14 estimates)** [5]. The annual cash‑flow reconciliation confirms how the AI/OpenAI re‑rating funded itself: investments included **mainly US$2.0B in Intel by SBG, c.US$33.5B from SVF into OpenAI, and a US$6.5B bridge loan tied to the Ampere acquisition**, with proceeds raised via the **upsized Arm margin loan (+US$11.5B, ¥+1.8T), an SBKK margin loan (+¥0.4T), commitment‑line and bond drawdowns at SBG totalling +¥7.3T** [4].

**Strategic build‑out (Apr–May 2026).** SoftBank closed two major infrastructure acquisitions and broadened AI exposure:
- **EU cleared the SB OAI Japan joint venture with OpenAI on 5 May 2026** [7], following an earlier EU provisional deadline set in April.
- **EU cleared the DigitalBridge acquisition on 27 April 2026** [10], and **DigitalBridge shareholders had already approved the deal on 23 April** — adding global datacentre infrastructure to the AI stack.
- **Google and Microsoft were reported as bidders to lease SoftBank Group's US data center capacity** [11] — direct evidence the Stargate‑adjacent infrastructure is generating hyperscaler demand.
- **SoftBank planning to set up AI/robotics firm "Roze" with a US listing**, per FT/Reuters reports on 29 April 2026 [12] — a vehicle for the robotics pillar of the SVF AI strategy [22].
- **Battery business launch (11 May 2026)** to build "next‑generation power infrastructure to support increasing demand for electricity driven by AI adoption" — closing the loop on Stargate's power constraints [16].
- **Bidder for Tokyo Electric Power's ¥1T+ capital raise** alongside Blackstone and Apollo [17] — another AI‑power play.
- **Cerebras Systems rejected an attempt from Arm and SoftBank to acquire the company** in early May 2026 [6] — a rare strategic setback in the AI‑chip vertical, but evidence of the M&A appetite.

**Ratings and Sentiment.** **Nomura upgraded SoftBank Group to Buy (target ¥3,778 in old share, post‑split context) on 11 April 2026** [9], and **Bernstein initiated 9984.JP alongside Arm on 18 May 2026** [13], reflecting the consensus catch‑up that CLSA had been forecasting since June 2025 ([23], [27]).

**The first cracks.** Late in the window, the narrative began to wobble:
- **28 April 2026**: reports that **OpenAI is missing internal targets, raising concerns around the broader AI capex binge** [14].
- **29 April 2026**: the Financial Times reported that **OpenAI's Stargate datacentre project is changing shape and adopting a more flexible approach** [15] — a softening of the original US$500bn / 100‑site framing CLSA had described a year earlier [19].
- **20 May 2026**: StreetAccount flagged that **Masayoshi Son's OpenAI commitment is sparking internal concern at SoftBank**, against a backdrop of broader bond‑market pressure on risk assets [8].

---

## 4. Investor sentiment & valuation — how the discount narrowed (and partially re‑widened)

| Period | Sentiment driver | NAV / Discount / Price signal |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Arm 4Q in‑line but soft guidance; CLSA HC O‑PF, **TP ¥11,254**, US$124bn implied for Arm [18] | Arm market cap **~US$130bn** [18] |
| May–Jun 2025 | Strong FY3/25 close on Bytedance & OpenAI marks; TP **trimmed to ¥10,749** but conviction held [B above] | Stock trading at **c.60% discount to NAV** [27], **>50%** by mid‑June [24] |
| Jun 2025 | "ASI by 2030" + US$1tn OpenAI scenario reframes upside | CLSA: 48–84% upside in the bull case [23]; discount expected to **narrow pre‑IPO of significant assets** (cf. Alibaba/Arm precedent) [24] |
| Sep 2025 | Q2 FY2025 print: **+US$14.6B investment gain**, OpenAI fair value mark; **H1 NI ¥2.9T (+¥1.9T YoY) — record** [2] [3] | NAV **¥33.3T**, LTV **16.5%**, Cash **¥4.2T** [3] |
| Oct 2025 | NVIDIA stake fully monetised for US$5.8B; Arm margin loan upsized to US$20B (Nov) | All‑time intraday high **¥27,695 on 29 Oct 2025** [3] |
| Apr 2026 | Nomura → Buy; DigitalBridge cleared; Roze IPO plan | News flow constructive |
| May 2026 | **FY NI ¥5.002T vs Street ¥3.557T** — a clean ~40% beat [5]; Bernstein initiates [13] | Battery JV / TEPCO bidder reinforce "AI power" story [16] [17] |
| Late May 2026 | OpenAI misses internal targets; Stargate "more flexible"; internal SoftBank concern about Son's OpenAI commitment [14] [15] [8] | Risk skew turning — share price language in news shows ¥5,770–6,012 range around the FY print [5] |

---

## 5. Cross‑source synthesis: what actually moved the stock

1. **OpenAI is now the dominant marginal value driver.** SVF Q2 FY2025 gains were "driven by fair value gain on OpenAI" [2] [3], and CLSA explicitly notes ChatGPT user growth (already >800m) and a path to a US$1tn OpenAI valuation as the new bull case [23]. The flip side: SBG's stock is now effectively an OpenAI proxy [24] — its sentiment now tracks OpenAI execution risk, not just SVF NAV.
2. **Balance‑sheet engineering enabled the AI bet.** The 12‑month sequence of T‑Mobile/NVIDIA/Deutsche Telekom monetisations plus the Arm margin‑loan upsizing [3] [4] was the necessary plumbing — without it, the US$30bn OpenAI net commitment [1] would have triggered LTV concern. Instead LTV improved to 16.5% [3].
3. **The AI infrastructure stack is being built out beyond OpenAI.** Stargate compute [19], DigitalBridge datacentres [10], a domestic battery business [16], a stake bid for TEPCO [17], the Arm margin facility, and the Cristal Intelligence enterprise software platform [26] are pieces of a vertically integrated "AI for the next decade" thesis. The Cerebras rejection [6] shows the strategy is being challenged at the chip layer.
4. **Consensus caught up; the discount narrowed.** Nomura's April 2026 upgrade [9] and Bernstein's May 2026 initiation [13] confirm that the CLSA‑June‑2025 view ("massively discounted despite offering rising AI exposure" [27]) became the consensus view by H1 2026 — supported by the FY NI ¥5.002T print well above the ¥3.557T Street average [5].
5. **The new risk is recursion.** Late‑period news ([14] [15] [8]) suggests that the very factor that drove the upside — open‑ended OpenAI commitment funded by holding‑company leverage — is now starting to produce internal pushback. The narrative for FY2026 will hinge on whether OpenAI's monetisation accelerates (justifying the marks) or stalls (re‑opening the NAV‑discount debate).

---

## 6. Caveats on data vintage

The internal research workspace is CLSA‑sourced; **the most recent CLSA SoftBank note in this workspace is dated 27 June 2025** [25]. The narrative from H2 calendar 2025 onwards relies on public sources: SoftBank's own H1 FY2025 results presentation and 半期報告書 (interim securities report) [1] [2] [3] [4], FY/Q4 FY2025 results disclosures [4] [5], and StreetAccount headlines through May 2026. CLSA's most recent target price in this workspace remains **HC O‑PF, ¥10,749** [23] — that target predates the stock's October 2025 highs and the May 2026 results beat, so the discount‑narrowing thesis it described has at least partially played out.

---

**Sources**

[1] ソフトバンクグループ 半期報告書 第46期 (FY2025) — OpenAI follow‑on terms (15 Nov 2025)
[2] SoftBank Group Corp., Q2 FY2025 Slides — Q2 investment gains $14.6B (Nov 2025)
[3] SoftBank Group Corp., Q2 FY2025 Slides — Asset monetisation, NAV/LTV, cash position (Nov 2025)
[4] SoftBank Group Corp., Q4 FY2025 Slides — Annual cash flow detail (May 2026)
[5] StreetAccount — "SoftBank Group reports FY net income attributable ¥5.002T vs FactSet ¥3.557T" (13 May 2026)
[6] StreetAccount — "Cerebras Systems rejected attempt from Arm and Softbank to acquire the company — Bloomberg" (13 May 2026)
[7] StreetAccount — "EU clears SoftBank Group, OpenAI's joint venture, SB OAI Japan" (5 May 2026)
[8] StreetAccount — "Masayoshi Son's OpenAI commitment sparking internal concern at SoftBank" (20 May 2026)
[9] StreetAccount — "SoftBank Group upgraded to buy at Nomura" (11 Apr 2026)
[10] StreetAccount — "EU clears SoftBank Group's acquisition of DigitalBridge" (27 Apr 2026)
[11] StreetAccount — "Google and Microsoft among bidders to lease SoftBank Group's US data center — Nikkei" (24 Apr 2026)
[12] StreetAccount — "SoftBank planning to set up AI and robotics firm Roze and list it in US — FT/Reuters" (29 Apr 2026)
[13] StreetAccount — "Bernstein initiates 9984.JP, ARM" (18 May 2026)
[14] StreetAccount — "OpenAI misses internal targets, raising concerns around AI capex binge" (28 Apr 2026)
[15] StreetAccount — "OpenAI's Stargate data center project changes shape, adopts more flexible approach — FT" (29 Apr 2026)
[16] StreetAccount — "SoftBank launches Japan‑based battery business to build next‑generation power infrastructure to support increasing demand for electricity driven by AI adoption" (11 May 2026)
[17] StreetAccount — "Tokyo Electric Power's capital raising attracts Blackstone, Apollo, SoftBank; may raise over ¥1T — Nikkei" (9 Apr 2026)
[18] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (Arm 4Q review) — CLSA, Oliver Matthew (8 May 2025) — 607958539LinqAlpha.PDF
[19] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (AI push) — CLSA (1 Jun 2025) — Stargate update — 607960933LinqAlpha.PDF
[20] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (AI vision) — CLSA (4 Jun 2025) — OpenAI valuation & investment structure — 607961216LinqAlpha.PDF
[21] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (AI vision) — CLSA (4 Jun 2025) — Arm sell‑down mechanics — 607961216LinqAlpha.PDF
[22] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (AI vision) — CLSA (4 Jun 2025) — AI investment strategy pillars — 607961216LinqAlpha.PDF
[23] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (If OpenAI is worth US$1tn . . .) — CLSA (13 Jun 2025) — 607961957LinqAlpha.PDF
[24] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (If OpenAI is worth US$1tn . . .) — CLSA (13 Jun 2025) — Discount‑to‑NAV framing — 607961957LinqAlpha.PDF
[25] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (A vision of ASI) — CLSA (27 Jun 2025) — AGM strategic update — 607962937LinqAlpha.PDF
[26] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (AI push) — CLSA (1 Jun 2025) — Cristal Intelligence — 607960933LinqAlpha.PDF
[27] Softbank Group — HC O‑PF (AI push) — CLSA (1 Jun 2025) — JF25 keynote summary — 607960933LinqAlpha.PDF

## Citations

- [1] **ソフトバンクグループ株式会社 - 半期報告書－第46期(2025/04/01－2026/03/31)** · external
- [2] **SoftBank Group - Q2 2026 - Slides.pdf** · external
- [3] **SoftBank Group - Q2 2026 - Slides.pdf** · external
- [4] **SoftBank Group Corp., Q4 2026** · external
- [5] **SoftBank Group reports FY net income attributable ¥5.002T vs FactSet ¥3.557T** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4677001&_doc_date=2026-05-13&_doc_product=SA>
- [6] **Cerebras Systems rejected attempt from Arm and Softbank to acquire the company - Bloomberg** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4678388&_doc_date=2026-05-13&_doc_product=SA>
- [7] **EU clears SoftBank Group, OpenAI's joint venture, SB OAI Japan** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4657077&_doc_date=2026-05-05&_doc_product=SA>
- [8] **APAC morning themes include bond market pressure weighing on risk assets; Masayoshi Son's OpenAI commitment sparking internal concern at SoftBank** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4687490&_doc_date=2026-05-20&_doc_product=SA>
- [9] **SoftBank Group upgraded to buy at Nomura** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4625149&_doc_date=2026-04-11&_doc_product=SA>
- [10] **EU clears SoftBank Group's acquisition of DigitalBridge** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4642141&_doc_date=2026-04-27&_doc_product=SA>
- [11] **Google and Microsoft among bidders to lease SoftBank Group's US data center - Nikkei** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4640463&_doc_date=2026-04-24&_doc_product=SA>
- [12] **SoftBank planning to set up AI and robotics firm Roze and list it in US - Reuters, citing FT** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4649362&_doc_date=2026-04-29&_doc_product=SA>
- [13] **Bernstein initiates 9984.JP, ARM** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4684855&_doc_date=2026-05-18&_doc_product=SA>
- [14] **OpenAI misses internal targets, raising concerns around AI capex binge** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4643778&_doc_date=2026-04-28&_doc_product=SA>
- [15] **OpenAI's Stargate data center project changes shape, adopts more flexible approach -- FT** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4647397&_doc_date=2026-04-29&_doc_product=SA>
- [16] **SoftBank launches Japan-based battery business to build next-generation power infrastructure to support increasing demand for electricity driven by AI adoption** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4671520&_doc_date=2026-05-11&_doc_product=SA>
- [17] **Tokyo Electric Power's capital raising attracts Blackstone, Apollo, SoftBank; may raise over ¥1T ($6.29B) - Nikkei** · news — <https://my.apps.factset.com/viewer-fusion/?_doc_id=sa_story_4623400&_doc_date=2026-04-09&_doc_product=SA>

