---
endpoint: analytics
pattern: Technology
status: done
latency_ms: 199196
conversation_id: 92e1d0a9-527a-4e1c-8d2a-6335e8ced6f6
citations: 13
created: 2026-05-31 21:19:13Z
---

# Is CLSA incrementally more positive/negative on Samsung Electronics. If so, why?

## CLSA on Samsung Electronics — Incrementally MORE NEGATIVE (Cautious near-term; positive bias reduced to a valuation argument)

**Bottom line**: Across CLSA's last five Samsung-specific notes (Mar 11 → Jun 11, 2025), analyst Sanjeev Rana has progressively walked down conviction. The headline rating stays at **Outperform (O-PF)** with a flat **12-month target price of ₩73,000** [1][7], but the bull case has shifted from "earnings tailwind from memory ASP recovery" to "stock is cheap and valuation cushion will carry it through near-term disappointment." In parallel, CLSA has gotten **more bullish on SK Hynix** (TP raised from ₩290,000 to ₩350,000 on 25 Jun 2025) [9], so on a *relative* basis within Korea memory, Samsung is being de-prioritised.

### 1. Trajectory of CLSA notes — narrative arc

| Date | Note title | Earnings revision | Underlying tone |
|---|---|---|---|
| **11 Mar 2025** | "More optimistic on NAND pricing" | 2025/26CL OP **+26%/+9% above consensus**; raised 2026 OP by 7% | Most positive — CLSA expected "sharp improvement in SEC's earnings from 2Q25", NAND ASP rebound earlier than forecast [8] |
| **8 Apr 2025** | "Tariffs clouding visibility" | **Cut 2025CL OP by 5%** | First step down — 1Q OP beat consensus by 26% but US tariff fears prompted a "more cautious view on smartphone/CE demand" [9] |
| **30 Apr 2025** | "Optimistic amid 2H uncertainties" | **Cut 2025CL OP by 6%** | Tariff/export-control overhang continues; "slightly lower-than-expected memory ASP increases" [10] |
| **29 May 2025** | "Treading carefully amid uncertainties" | No further cut | Hopeful on 2H AI-server acceleration but cautious language on HBM ramp [11] |
| **11 Jun 2025** | **"Weak 2Q but valuation support"** | **Cut 2025/26CL OP by 4%/2%** | Most cautious — 2Q OP expected **10% BELOW consensus**; thesis reframed around **0.9x forward book vs 10-yr avg 1.2x** [1] |

The pattern is unmistakable: three consecutive cuts to earnings (-5%, -6%, then -4%/-2%), the 2Q25 OP estimate flipping from "sharp improvement" in March to "10% below consensus" in June, and the title language moving from "More optimistic" → "Tariffs clouding" → "Optimistic amid uncertainties" → "Treading carefully" → "Weak 2Q."

### 2. What specifically deteriorated — the new negatives in June

**a) HBM3E 12-Hi qualification with Nvidia is slipping.** In April CLSA expected SEC to "gain qualification for HBM3E supply from Nvidia in July" and modelled +50% HBM shipment growth in 2025. By 11 June, CLSA wrote: *"SEC is still in the process of completing its HBM3E 12-Hi qualification with Nvidia… expectations about the timing of supply need to be tempered down. Likewise, with AMD, its expected qualification in 2Q25 also seems to have been delayed. We now see some downside risk to our already conservative projection of 40% HBM shipment growth in 2025 (SEC's target is +100% YoY) and even HBM4 supply to customers may not commence until mid-1H26."* [3] That is a meaningful walk-down from the March view of 100% (company target) vs CLSA 70% [no citation needed — see context], to April's 50%, to June's "downside risk to 40%."

**b) The DDR4 spike doesn't help Samsung much.** Even though spot DDR4 prices spiked ~40% in 2Q25, CLSA notes DDR4 is *less than 10% of SEC's DRAM shipments* and SEC already cleared most DDR4 inventory before 2Q — so the rally doesn't materially flow through to SEC's blended ASP [1][2].

**c) Foundry losses persisting.** CLSA expects 2Q25 foundry operating losses to remain at a level similar to 1Q25 (~₩2.2tn loss). The improvement story is pushed out to 2H25 on 3nm foldable, 8nm Nintendo Switch 2, and 5nm orders [1].

**d) FX headwind** (unfavorable KRW) was also flagged as one of three reasons for the 2Q consensus miss [2].

### 3. Why CLSA hasn't downgraded — the bull case is now purely valuation

CLSA explicitly anchors the maintained Outperform on **0.9x forward book vs the 10-year average of 1.2x** [1]. The price-target stayed flat at ₩73,000 across all three quarterly notes (March, April, June) [7][6], but because the stock rallied (+9.3% 1M, +11.8% 3M into June 11), implied upside compressed from **+36% in March → +31% in April → +22% in June** [7][6]. So even the headline "potential return" has shrunk.

### 4. Relative read — CLSA prefers SK Hynix in Korea memory

Two weeks after the cautious Samsung note, CLSA's 25 Jun 2025 Korea Memory sector outlook raised SK Hynix's TP from ₩290,000 to ₩350,000 (+21%), citing Hynix's dominance in HBM (70% of supply to Nvidia), HBM revenue approaching 50% of DRAM revenue, and probability of valuation re-rating on "rising dominance of highly profitable HBM and hence lower cyclicality of its earnings" [12]. No equivalent TP increase was made for Samsung. **Within Korea memory, CLSA's clearly preferred long is Hynix, not Samsung.**

### 5. What is still constructive on Samsung

To stress-test the bear read, CLSA does flag genuine 2H supports: HBM shipments are *likely to recover* in 2H25 supporting blended DRAM ASP [1]; SEC expects HBM supply to remain constrained through 2026 due to HBM4 complexity [11]; conventional DRAM supply will tighten in 2H as wafers shift to HBM [11]; and the 1Q beat (+26% vs consensus, on MX and DRAM strength) showed operational follow-through [13]. The qualitative thesis pillars (DRAM/NAND #1 share, AI-driven mix uplift, HBM capacity build to 200k wpm by 2026CL, foundry recovery on 2nm orders) are unchanged. But each of these is conditional and forward-dated — they are reasons not to capitulate, not reasons to add.

### 6. Net synthesis

CLSA is **incrementally more negative on Samsung Electronics** since the March peak optimism. The rating tag (O-PF) has not changed, but the underlying signal — earnings, near-term consensus delta, HBM qualification timing, valuation upside, and relative ranking versus SK Hynix — has weakened materially across each successive note. The shift in title language ("More optimistic" → "Weak 2Q but valuation support") is the cleanest tell. The thesis has effectively been demoted from "earnings re-rating story" to "valuation defense while we wait for HBM3E and foundry to inflect in 2H." Until SEC closes the HBM3E 12-Hi qualification with Nvidia and shows foundry losses narrowing, CLSA's framing implies the stock is being held — not actively championed.

---

**Sources**
[1] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Weak 2Q but valuation support) — CLSA (11 Jun 2025) — 607961798LinqAlpha.PDF
[2] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Weak 2Q but valuation support) — CLSA (11 Jun 2025) — 607961798LinqAlpha.PDF (2Q OP detail)
[3] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Weak 2Q but valuation support) — CLSA (11 Jun 2025) — 607961798LinqAlpha.PDF (HBM3E qualification para)
[4] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Weak 2Q but valuation support) — CLSA (11 Jun 2025) — 607961798LinqAlpha.PDF (Valuation methodology)
[5] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Weak 2Q but valuation support) — CLSA (11 Jun 2025) — 607961798LinqAlpha.PDF (Foundry para)
[6] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Weak 2Q but valuation support) — CLSA (11 Jun 2025) — 607961798LinqAlpha.PDF (TP / +22% upside table)
[7] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (More optimistic on NAND pricing) — CLSA (11 Mar 2025) — 607952782LinqAlpha.PDF (TP / +36% upside table)
[8] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (More optimistic on NAND pricing) — CLSA (11 Mar 2025) — 607952782LinqAlpha.PDF (Earnings 26%/9% above consensus)
[9] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Tariffs clouding visibility) — CLSA (8 Apr 2025) — 607955304LinqAlpha.PDF (1Q beat, -5% OP cut)
[10] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Optimistic amid 2H uncertainties) — CLSA (30 Apr 2025) — 607957658LinqAlpha.PDF (-6% OP cut)
[11] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Treading carefully amid uncertainties) — CLSA (29 May 2025) — 607960821LinqAlpha.PDF (Memory demand / HBM supply tightness)
[12] Korea Memory sector outlook (Micron call read-across) — CLSA (25 Jun 2025) — 607962817LinqAlpha.PDF (SK Hynix TP raised to ₩350,000)
[13] Samsung Electronics — O-PF (Tariffs clouding visibility) — CLSA (8 Apr 2025) — 607955304LinqAlpha.PDF (1Q beat detail)

## Citations

- [1] **607961798LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961798LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [2] **607961798LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961798LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [3] **607961798LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961798LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [4] **607961798LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961798LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [5] **607961798LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961798LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [6] **607961798LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607961798LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [7] **607952782LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607952782LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [8] **607952782LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/03/607952782LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [9] **607955304LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607955304LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [10] **607957658LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607957658LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [11] **607960821LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/05/607960821LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [12] **607962817LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/06/607962817LinqAlpha.PDF>
- [13] **607955304LinqAlpha.PDF** · clsa — <s3://ext-linq-rms-clsa/2025/04/607955304LinqAlpha.PDF>

